Just getting ready... Champing at the bit...

I think that this move is over. It could go to @ 1450, but I would like to see a bounce off the adjusted forks.

I looked at this because Jim mention it. Consecutive 4 pt continuation patterns, this should be one hell of a move!!

Crude $111.95...

Yes, Duane, that baby is on the launch pad, and it may be blasting off. We'll see. If not now, soon. I just 'sense' it wants to see $200/$250 in the not too distant future.

Nice pullback and then it just exploded up. Looking good.

Originally posted by jimkane

I am very confident that the up move has started and I'm very comfortable being long side bias right now. We'll see if I'm 'right' or not. I'm not even slightly worried.

I'm not going to post levels here, but I will say I expect the next leg to go to perhaps 40 or 45 area. I would think it would be there by the open. We'll see. Then we can get an idea of what it might want to do a little bit higher timeframe. Yeah, I'll watch the bearish ABCD level, but mostly for amusement. If we get the 'backtest' we may see somewhere between 80 and 85, and new highs are still not off the table. I'd love a full test of that 20 area, or a move to that 1580 area, but I think a nice way to game that TL is to rise from here, early.

I won't be disappointed if this rolls over and does something with the lower levels, but I think the odds greatly favor some upside from here. Maybe I'll eat those words tomorrow. So be it. At some point you have to pick a side. The only worry I have is long side is still risky because of the possible imminent attack on Syria. BTW, crude $112.24.

Oh, yeah, and this is an area for crude, so a checkback in here is possible, maybe even likely, in my opinion.

Well according to my extremely unscientific elliot wave count, wave 3 is now the shortest impulse wave, which is a no no. So maybe we will get a ret at 100FE and I will be put out of my misery!!

Here are some of my recent quotes. I was pounding the table for the long side, to use a roofer expression. I mentioned 40 or 45 (not as exact levels, just eyeballing it for the readers), it has hit 39.25 so far. But, alas, it did respond to that ABCD, sending it down to 24.75, finally hitting that key area, all the while still avoiding full, direct contact with that obvious TL.

So, here's one question that gets to some of the point of this post. The 1.272 off the bearish ABCD was at 1623.94. The heart of the key area is 20-24, and as I mentioned many times, I thought it might game the obvious TL by not fully hitting it. Nonetheless, if one was in, where should the stop have been placed? Right above the key grouping/area? Right above the 1.272 off that ABCD it was responding to? The 1.272 falls right in on the top of a key grouping/area I've been talking about endlessly in here.

If one got in for this move 'early' (off the 26.25 LOD there area) and placed the stop above or in the key grouping area you are now officially kicked out of this forum. Seriously, look over what I am saying. The stop would have to be out of the way of all that key stuff, or the trade can't be made, in my point of view. If that's too far away for the reward/risk ratio to be adequate, then one has to wait and see if it does one more roll down, and if not, the trade is missed.

This is the dilemma when it reacts in the early part of an area. But, look at where the entry may be (say 29), and stop (say 19 (and this is perhaps too tight)), to get a 3 to 1 it would have to move 30, or hit say 59. For a 2 to 1 it has to move 20, or to 49. Is that realistic? What's the play? The .382 off the top is at 55.41, the .447 at 60.62. The 'backtest' area is at 80-85 (maybe only 75). What's the play? Is it realistic? This is a far different approach than roofer's 3 or 5 cent stop plays. This is pure KT methodology. Anyway, some things to think about.

Originally posted by jimkane

...The best area is 20-24, with 21-22 the heart of it...

Originally posted by jimkane

It has to keep probing, but I'll stand by that 100% read.

Originally posted by jimkane

I'm not going to post levels here, but I will say I expect the next leg to go to perhaps 40 or 45 area... Yeah, I'll watch the bearish ABCD level, but mostly for amusement...

I won't be disappointed if this rolls over and does something with the lower levels, but I think the odds greatly favor some upside from here. Maybe I'll eat those words tomorrow. So be it. At some point you have to pick a side...

BTW, I am concerned this may be done here.

Maybe this is very close (I think it might be), and maybe it's not even in the ballpark. One thing I do think is if this isn't how it unfolds, it will be some other scenario equally vile. Sorry. I can't believe my 'golden years' as I near 'retirement' are going to be spent like this...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-31/guest-post-what-expect-during-next-stage-collapse