Source: http://www.theburningplatform.com/2013/10/20/sunday-funnies-61/
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I'll start the week with this nice cartoon:
Source: http://www.theburningplatform.com/2013/10/20/sunday-funnies-61/
Source: http://www.theburningplatform.com/2013/10/20/sunday-funnies-61/
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Well, I had a feeling based on its actions that that spot was indeed it, and the '6PT' was going to play out. It was acting just too weak and ready to drop, and then I saw this little shift after I had closed the browser down and was getting ready to leave the room. Just some little wiggle, I'm not sure what, it's a subconscious process. I even marked my chart with this little note, I swear:
"1,000% chance
up from this
exact spot"
And, as we know, that was what it did, right to that 53.50 area previously mentioned (hitting 53.75 before coming back in a bit). So, I'm glad I added that in after seeing that shift, not only because I would have had the absolute wrong read on record, but also because it was a good chance for the readers to see how quickly I can change my view based on subtle little clues the price action gives me. That's a big part of trading (in my opinion) and the advanced stages of this methodology, having a 'feel' and read on the price action, and being able to change a premise on a dime when needed. To be flexible. So, I think this worked out quite nicely. It's not easy providing worthwhile content day in and day out.
"1,000% chance
up from this
exact spot"
And, as we know, that was what it did, right to that 53.50 area previously mentioned (hitting 53.75 before coming back in a bit). So, I'm glad I added that in after seeing that shift, not only because I would have had the absolute wrong read on record, but also because it was a good chance for the readers to see how quickly I can change my view based on subtle little clues the price action gives me. That's a big part of trading (in my opinion) and the advanced stages of this methodology, having a 'feel' and read on the price action, and being able to change a premise on a dime when needed. To be flexible. So, I think this worked out quite nicely. It's not easy providing worthwhile content day in and day out.
Originally posted by jimkane
You know, I logged out, was ready to close down for the night, and I had to come back in and make one last post. I am not so sure this isn't headed up from here. I am rescinding my call for highest odds for downside and maybe that 20 area. I am changing to I have no clue. I am looking at this from a short management perspective right now, only as a countertrend for that lower area (or even just one of the two areas on the way there, 32.75-35.50 and 27.00-29.50ish), but I am no longer convinced it has any plans to go down any more from here, just based on how it's acting. It will do what it will do, and on to the next one. See ya manana (not that there is anyone even reading this...).
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
It's acting done here. I'm curious to see how they'll play the Friday close, especially with it acting all weak at this TL here. Trying to game their game.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Of course now I am wondering about their games. It looks weak, it's 'rolling over', it's a sure-fire, no-brainer short, right?
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
It needs to pop over this 53.50 area here into the close for a strong finish. Can it?
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, tried to make a little contribution today to price action reading, as the ES sets yet another new all-time high and closes strong.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
And, for a follow up, let's be fair and look at Friday. The market's be on fire, another new all-time high. How many did they have, for the entirety of My Pivots? 2,000? 4,000? No, twenty. But four were mine, so sixteen, really. Now, perhaps the three from today (excluding my one member) were also in yesterday. I can only see the last time they were in, that could make nineteen, at the most.
Just think about this right now. The market hit another all-time high. The bull is raging, one of the longest and strongest ever. Public involvement should be at a maximum. I doubt many in here have been to BigCharts.com. It was a quickly program I used to look up a chart when all my charting programs were closed out for the day and I wanted to quick check something. Nowadays probably most would use StockCharts.com for that. Anyway, at the peak of the dotbomb bubble, it was sold... for $80 million! That's what generally happens when there is a bull and the public is stock mad.
I recall when every last person I knew was a 'trader' in '99. My plumber literally quit his job of decades and went 'full-time' trading. My dentist, he was going full-time. My friend's doctor, he closed his practice. My dad's friend was up like $200K in AOL, and he had just bought a house for like that much (back when, and in a place, where that bought a lot) my dad told him 'I think you should sell the AOL, pay the house off fully, and be really happy with that deal.' He laughed and said it was going way higher, and he was going to be a multimillionaire. That was the top. He basically lost it all.
I remember a good buddy's sister, I think she was an engineer, she quit to 'trade' full-time. She took her life savings, and everything she could borrow. She went 'all in' on CREE. She was doing well with it. Pull up a chart. Mine is adjusted for splits, so I'm not sure what the actual high was, but that doesn't matter, it won't change the percentage drops and so on. So, at the peak in early 2000 it was over 100. At the low a few years later it was 8 and change. I asked him somewhere around there how she was doing. She was 'holding on', and said 'It will come back, they always do.' Good thing she didn't choose eToys or WebVan. Anyway, now fourteen years later, with all this Fed pumping, it still isn't back, and do you have any idea how much the buying power of those dollars has dropped since then? My calculations, based on my own personal CPI, is about 66%, I think it was, in the last five years. Imagine over those fourteen. So, even if she is still holding, and sells at break even, she really took a total reaming.
The point? That's what public involvement usually looks like at a bull top. I'm not arguing this means this 'bull' has a lot more to go, what I'm saying is, this market is broken. That kind of action can't happen. No one has the available credit for it. The 'public' is margined on the same order now as the 2000 and 2007 tops. They have no home ATM piggy bank, no savings left, no credit cards to run way up trading. And less than zero interest. In this way, this is not really a 'bull' market (hence my constant use of quotes every time), it's a cyclical 'bull' in a secular bear cycle, created solely with stolen and funny munny, while 'Rome burns'.
And, again, the point? All this is confirmed when one realizes a tremendously well-known, famous, popular place like My Pivots, on a day when the market hits another all time high, and pops in GOOG over 120-something dollars in a day (or equal or even higher percentage moves in the likes of CMG, NFLX et al) are not uncommon, generates a total of perhaps nineteen members to visit for the entire day. So, no wonder I have four visitors a day. Thinking of it another way, I have like 20% or 25% of the level of traffic (in terms of members) as one of the biggest and best forums out there, a forum with over 122,000 posts, has! That's great!
Just think about this right now. The market hit another all-time high. The bull is raging, one of the longest and strongest ever. Public involvement should be at a maximum. I doubt many in here have been to BigCharts.com. It was a quickly program I used to look up a chart when all my charting programs were closed out for the day and I wanted to quick check something. Nowadays probably most would use StockCharts.com for that. Anyway, at the peak of the dotbomb bubble, it was sold... for $80 million! That's what generally happens when there is a bull and the public is stock mad.
I recall when every last person I knew was a 'trader' in '99. My plumber literally quit his job of decades and went 'full-time' trading. My dentist, he was going full-time. My friend's doctor, he closed his practice. My dad's friend was up like $200K in AOL, and he had just bought a house for like that much (back when, and in a place, where that bought a lot) my dad told him 'I think you should sell the AOL, pay the house off fully, and be really happy with that deal.' He laughed and said it was going way higher, and he was going to be a multimillionaire. That was the top. He basically lost it all.
I remember a good buddy's sister, I think she was an engineer, she quit to 'trade' full-time. She took her life savings, and everything she could borrow. She went 'all in' on CREE. She was doing well with it. Pull up a chart. Mine is adjusted for splits, so I'm not sure what the actual high was, but that doesn't matter, it won't change the percentage drops and so on. So, at the peak in early 2000 it was over 100. At the low a few years later it was 8 and change. I asked him somewhere around there how she was doing. She was 'holding on', and said 'It will come back, they always do.' Good thing she didn't choose eToys or WebVan. Anyway, now fourteen years later, with all this Fed pumping, it still isn't back, and do you have any idea how much the buying power of those dollars has dropped since then? My calculations, based on my own personal CPI, is about 66%, I think it was, in the last five years. Imagine over those fourteen. So, even if she is still holding, and sells at break even, she really took a total reaming.
The point? That's what public involvement usually looks like at a bull top. I'm not arguing this means this 'bull' has a lot more to go, what I'm saying is, this market is broken. That kind of action can't happen. No one has the available credit for it. The 'public' is margined on the same order now as the 2000 and 2007 tops. They have no home ATM piggy bank, no savings left, no credit cards to run way up trading. And less than zero interest. In this way, this is not really a 'bull' market (hence my constant use of quotes every time), it's a cyclical 'bull' in a secular bear cycle, created solely with stolen and funny munny, while 'Rome burns'.
And, again, the point? All this is confirmed when one realizes a tremendously well-known, famous, popular place like My Pivots, on a day when the market hits another all time high, and pops in GOOG over 120-something dollars in a day (or equal or even higher percentage moves in the likes of CMG, NFLX et al) are not uncommon, generates a total of perhaps nineteen members to visit for the entire day. So, no wonder I have four visitors a day. Thinking of it another way, I have like 20% or 25% of the level of traffic (in terms of members) as one of the biggest and best forums out there, a forum with over 122,000 posts, has! That's great!