I'll start the week with this nice cartoon:



Source: http://www.theburningplatform.com/2013/10/20/sunday-funnies-61/

So, remember I said to look at NFLX earlier today? It closed Friday at 333. It was up very strongly today, at 355. Wow. A run up into earnings. Buy the rumor, sell the news, right? Right...... That's an old paradigm. Nowadays it's buy the rumor, absolutely explode it up on the news. It's a new world now. So, earning come out, and NFLX trades a few pennies shy of 398. A stock that was in the 330's right before today's open. Nope, no speculative froth around at all. Hard to believe it was 53 and change about a year ago. That's only about a 750% pop. This sure seems like it, the final speculative blow off I've been waiting for. But who knows, maybe it is a new paradigm, and we will get 20%, 30%, 50% rises on a regular or even daily basis, forever. You never know, right?

I thought this was awesome. You'd have to be familiar with the movie to really understand it ( http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0455857/ ). Anyway, someone over at ZH posted this as a comment to a story, and basically it fits so well once we realize where the enemy, where the horror, is. Scary.

"We traced the call! It's coming from inside the house! Do you hear me? It's coming from inside the house!"

Yep, of course.

"More than 100% of equity market gains since January 2009 have taken place during the weeks the Fed purchased Treasury bonds and mortgages. And conversely, during the weeks when the Fed did NOT buy Treasuries or mortgage backed bonds, the stock market declined."

Source: http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/10/21/stock-prices-have-risen-every-week-the-fed-bought-bonds-since-2009/

Nice setup on the GBPAUD

Also EURAUD

Anyone just buy the open and take their 10+ points? Remember I mentioned that idea?

Now we have the obligatory 'throw over' of the 3D, so if they want to sell it a bit they could. I mean sell beyond that incredibly sweet initial sell we had. I'm not saying it will, it very well could just keep doing those pops off the open ad infinitum. But, what I'm saying is, the area I mentioned way, way, way back was 1740-60, and it hit 54.50 today on a throw over. So, if they wanted to sell, this would be a nice spot for it. And bulls right now comprise 99.9999999999% of the people, in my opinion. So, one side of the boat is loaded. Time to capsize. Just some thoughts. Otherwise, see you at 1840-60, 2000, and then 3400.

And, for a follow up, let's be fair and look at Friday. The market's be on fire, another new all-time high. How many did they have, for the entirety of My Pivots? 2,000? 4,000? No, twenty. But four were mine, so sixteen, really. Now, perhaps the three from today (excluding my one member) were also in yesterday. I can only see the last time they were in, that could make nineteen, at the most.

Just think about this right now. The market hit another all-time high. The bull is raging, one of the longest and strongest ever. Public involvement should be at a maximum. I doubt many in here have been to BigCharts.com. It was a quickly program I used to look up a chart when all my charting programs were closed out for the day and I wanted to quick check something. Nowadays probably most would use StockCharts.com for that. Anyway, at the peak of the dotbomb bubble, it was sold... for $80 million! That's what generally happens when there is a bull and the public is stock mad.

I recall when every last person I knew was a 'trader' in '99. My plumber literally quit his job of decades and went 'full-time' trading. My dentist, he was going full-time. My friend's doctor, he closed his practice. My dad's friend was up like $200K in AOL, and he had just bought a house for like that much (back when, and in a place, where that bought a lot) my dad told him 'I think you should sell the AOL, pay the house off fully, and be really happy with that deal.' He laughed and said it was going way higher, and he was going to be a multimillionaire. That was the top. He basically lost it all.

I remember a good buddy's sister, I think she was an engineer, she quit to 'trade' full-time. She took her life savings, and everything she could borrow. She went 'all in' on CREE. She was doing well with it. Pull up a chart. Mine is adjusted for splits, so I'm not sure what the actual high was, but that doesn't matter, it won't change the percentage drops and so on. So, at the peak in early 2000 it was over 100. At the low a few years later it was 8 and change. I asked him somewhere around there how she was doing. She was 'holding on', and said 'It will come back, they always do.' Good thing she didn't choose eToys or WebVan. Anyway, now fourteen years later, with all this Fed pumping, it still isn't back, and do you have any idea how much the buying power of those dollars has dropped since then? My calculations, based on my own personal CPI, is about 66%, I think it was, in the last five years. Imagine over those fourteen. So, even if she is still holding, and sells at break even, she really took a total reaming.

The point? That's what public involvement usually looks like at a bull top. I'm not arguing this means this 'bull' has a lot more to go, what I'm saying is, this market is broken. That kind of action can't happen. No one has the available credit for it. The 'public' is margined on the same order now as the 2000 and 2007 tops. They have no home ATM piggy bank, no savings left, no credit cards to run way up trading. And less than zero interest. In this way, this is not really a 'bull' market (hence my constant use of quotes every time), it's a cyclical 'bull' in a secular bear cycle, created solely with stolen and funny munny, while 'Rome burns'.

And, again, the point? All this is confirmed when one realizes a tremendously well-known, famous, popular place like My Pivots, on a day when the market hits another all time high, and pops in GOOG over 120-something dollars in a day (or equal or even higher percentage moves in the likes of CMG, NFLX et al) are not uncommon, generates a total of perhaps nineteen members to visit for the entire day. So, no wonder I have four visitors a day. Thinking of it another way, I have like 20% or 25% of the level of traffic (in terms of members) as one of the biggest and best forums out there, a forum with over 122,000 posts, has! That's great!