I'll start the week with this nice cartoon:



Source: http://www.theburningplatform.com/2013/10/20/sunday-funnies-61/

This is just fun stuff, let's see if it 'works'.

This indicator, under these circumstances, has been highly reliable. Up it is going to go...

Now, at this point, I could care less what it does. I'm just watching and letting it do its thing. But, I suspect, based on this fun indicator, that it won't continue this down move any more here, it will rise (not necessarily significantly). We'll see. I'd prefer it to go down more. I'm just mentioning all this because this indicator is very reliable, and I'm bored waiting for this to be done.

Now, I want to say Yay!, but I won't, because this may just be the stab down and then they snap it up. Sometimes they push on my 'indicator' a little before it plays out.

Okay, TL and key stuff here. Watch closely.

retest

So, the 'indicator' kind of 'worked'. They pushed on it, through the spot where the indicator first triggered, but then snapped it up. It does look weak. My read was right from before, chop with an upward bias. But, after this many swings it is ready to make a decision, up or down, and do something. That won't likely happen now in the dull aftermarket (unless some earnings new or other news affects it), so maybe in the overnight into the AM.

Like I said, my dream, my fantasy, it that that lower high was the end of the 'bull'. I know the odds of that are way less that a gazillion to one, but the odds are no different than my desire to date a Playboy model when I was 19, and that didn't stop me from dreaming about it...

This could do a little selling.

But it's right on price flow, right on 'support' in here. Very obvious support though, and enough tries at it for it to need to change it up.

And, for a follow up, let's be fair and look at Friday. The market's be on fire, another new all-time high. How many did they have, for the entirety of My Pivots? 2,000? 4,000? No, twenty. But four were mine, so sixteen, really. Now, perhaps the three from today (excluding my one member) were also in yesterday. I can only see the last time they were in, that could make nineteen, at the most.

Just think about this right now. The market hit another all-time high. The bull is raging, one of the longest and strongest ever. Public involvement should be at a maximum. I doubt many in here have been to BigCharts.com. It was a quickly program I used to look up a chart when all my charting programs were closed out for the day and I wanted to quick check something. Nowadays probably most would use StockCharts.com for that. Anyway, at the peak of the dotbomb bubble, it was sold... for $80 million! That's what generally happens when there is a bull and the public is stock mad.

I recall when every last person I knew was a 'trader' in '99. My plumber literally quit his job of decades and went 'full-time' trading. My dentist, he was going full-time. My friend's doctor, he closed his practice. My dad's friend was up like $200K in AOL, and he had just bought a house for like that much (back when, and in a place, where that bought a lot) my dad told him 'I think you should sell the AOL, pay the house off fully, and be really happy with that deal.' He laughed and said it was going way higher, and he was going to be a multimillionaire. That was the top. He basically lost it all.

I remember a good buddy's sister, I think she was an engineer, she quit to 'trade' full-time. She took her life savings, and everything she could borrow. She went 'all in' on CREE. She was doing well with it. Pull up a chart. Mine is adjusted for splits, so I'm not sure what the actual high was, but that doesn't matter, it won't change the percentage drops and so on. So, at the peak in early 2000 it was over 100. At the low a few years later it was 8 and change. I asked him somewhere around there how she was doing. She was 'holding on', and said 'It will come back, they always do.' Good thing she didn't choose eToys or WebVan. Anyway, now fourteen years later, with all this Fed pumping, it still isn't back, and do you have any idea how much the buying power of those dollars has dropped since then? My calculations, based on my own personal CPI, is about 66%, I think it was, in the last five years. Imagine over those fourteen. So, even if she is still holding, and sells at break even, she really took a total reaming.

The point? That's what public involvement usually looks like at a bull top. I'm not arguing this means this 'bull' has a lot more to go, what I'm saying is, this market is broken. That kind of action can't happen. No one has the available credit for it. The 'public' is margined on the same order now as the 2000 and 2007 tops. They have no home ATM piggy bank, no savings left, no credit cards to run way up trading. And less than zero interest. In this way, this is not really a 'bull' market (hence my constant use of quotes every time), it's a cyclical 'bull' in a secular bear cycle, created solely with stolen and funny munny, while 'Rome burns'.

And, again, the point? All this is confirmed when one realizes a tremendously well-known, famous, popular place like My Pivots, on a day when the market hits another all time high, and pops in GOOG over 120-something dollars in a day (or equal or even higher percentage moves in the likes of CMG, NFLX et al) are not uncommon, generates a total of perhaps nineteen members to visit for the entire day. So, no wonder I have four visitors a day. Thinking of it another way, I have like 20% or 25% of the level of traffic (in terms of members) as one of the biggest and best forums out there, a forum with over 122,000 posts, has! That's great!