ES Tuesday 5-24-16

Going to keep this brief today. Low range and an inside bar on daily yesterday. So we need to be mindful of possible trend day today or larger than expected move..two areas I will be taking shorts from are the 56- 58.50 ( last weeks VA high is up here too ) and the 61 - 62 see if I can get back to the 52..50 - 54 area...the high time from last week and Mondays highs !

I will edit this in a bit..2056 and 2038 are SITYS numbers today and yesterdays missed...

R2 is at 56 today

and last possible place for shorts will be up at 65 - SD band is up there and low time is up there from 5-16....otherwise the bulls will beat me up good today as I will not be on the longside at all this morning..if we do push out last weeks VA high then probabilities suggest multiple tpo's should print there especially if we leave single prints on that breakout average in is right at a low time spot that is forming buyers may step in off that and go for that 68 high...I hope not....still only half way through my preferred 90 minute window but it seems like a long day so far
that could be a good plan..for me it is just to take the small loss and try again at my zones........but yeah, out of range days have greater potential to trend....mechanical trades below low of high bars have failed miserbly today for those using that approach but some day all you can do is just keep the losses from getting out of having small 1.25 - 1.5 point losses is ok as long as you can catch the the 3 - 4 point win
Originally posted by NewKid

i think i am going to start sitting out the opens on out of range days because this has not been going well so far.... lesson learned
naked VPOC at 71 seems to be the next point now...
I have had two losers and no winners today...lost on average 1.5 points per contract......per trade idea....last try on shorts is at last weeks highs now...wasn't expecting this to go so far so fast today but that is the life of a fader....lots of single prints below need to be filled in...65.75 is initial target to make up some of my losses...this seems like too much and too soon to me..
I'm watching 68 - 70 real close ...we have had two daily highs in that spot....lets see if the breakout players have any power left after such a big move...and can sustain trade above is certainly stretched from a statistical point of view
i had 68.25 as the weekly SITYS number so that requirement is met. on the dailies i see the 1.28 SD band at 69 and then the 1.5 SD band at 73.

Reminder that there is an 80% chance we close below the 1.28 SD band and an 87% probability that we close below the 1.5 SD band. Note that they are not 100% so let us see in which category we fall into today
i really expect that naked VPOC and the POC at 71 area to give a good fight because like Bruce said, this has all been too much too soon
alright. 71 it is. let us see what happens now...... fingers and toes crossed
took third loser.....last try for me today is from 70.50..trying for 67.50.......bulls are beating it seems this is going to end up as a losing 90 minute window today and I am not trading ( initiating) beyond that
breaking rules and selling weekly R1 at 71.75...hard stop at 74.75....looking for 69.50 and 67.50 but not expecting it to be easy up here and either way I will be a net loser at my trading today.
Originally posted by BruceM

I'm also buying put options as I have that probability of returning to 58 area before the week is out

What expiration do you buy Bruce and does the premium decay take a lot of profit out of the trade?