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2 June 2005 (Thursday)

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Session Start: Thu Jun 02 08:25:57 2005
Session Ident: #t1

[08:27:54] <tuna> good morning
[08:32:06] <guy> gm tuna :)
[09:24:37] <guy> Challenger Job-Cut Report 10:00 ET
[09:24:37] <guy> Factory Orders 10:00 ET
[09:24:37] <guy> EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET
[09:25:39] <guy> Also NYSE was down during last part of session yest.
[09:25:48] <guy> So we might have a wacky opening...
[09:30:10] <guy> ER2 opening just below POC and in VA
[09:30:13] <signal> [img]
[09:30:55] <guy> ES opening just below VA
[09:31:03] <signal> [img]
[09:35:03] <guy> Looking at VAL as possible buy
[09:35:07] <signal> [img]
[09:35:09] <guy> but watching alpha for confirm
[09:39:21] <guy>
[09:39:21] <guy> Shorts ER2 @ 623
[09:39:21] <guy>

[09:39:44] <guy> Pure alpha trade:
[09:39:54] <signal> [img]
[09:46:40] <guy>
[09:46:40] <guy> exit stop set ER2 @ 625
[09:46:40] <guy>

[09:56:19] <guy>
[09:56:19] <guy> Covered all Short ER2 at 624 --> - 1
[09:56:19] <guy>

[10:07:01] <tuna> double tpo's in er and ym
[10:26:48] <guy> ER2 with alpha:
[10:26:57] <signal> [img]
[10:30:38] <guy> Rotation Factors / Split Counts:
[10:30:46] <signal> [img]
[10:32:46] <guy> IB is 3.2 in ER2
[10:32:55] <signal> [img]
[10:37:27] <guy> small IB increases chances of trend day
[10:37:33] <guy> and almost always RE to one side
[10:37:58] <guy> Grey lines from 10:30 EST show IBH and IBL
[10:38:08] <signal> [img]
[10:46:23] <guy> RE on ER2
[10:46:29] <signal> [img]
[10:46:33] <guy> Looks like it could be an up day again...
[10:46:52] <guy> We have 4 alpha buy spikes during the period before the oil report came out
[10:48:09] <guy> This room is moderated just to stop people coming in here and causing problems but it still allows anyone in here.
[10:48:28] <guy> If you want a "voice" to type in here and ask questions then just PM me and I'll give you a voice

[11:02:38] <guy> RFs
[11:02:52] <signal> [img]
[11:04:06] <signal> [img]
[11:04:27] <guy> ER2 has some alpha buy signals here
[11:06:50] <guy> Have a look at the Range Extension on the ER2
[11:07:08] <guy> We spent about 13 minutes about the IBH
[11:07:21] <guy> This tells me that it wasn't just a flirt with RE
[11:07:29] <guy> but we found some business up there.
[11:07:31] <guy> Also
[11:07:49] <guy> look at the fact that ER2 is holding up relatively well versus this amazing rally in oil
[11:08:00] <guy> so there is underlying strength in the ER2
[11:08:15] <guy> Alpha has been in buy mode since just after 10am
[11:08:17] <guy> EST
[11:08:54] <guy> Obviously oil is a big hurdle right now and is hamstringing the equity futures
[11:09:14] <guy> IMO: if oil breaks then equity futures will pop very quickly
[11:09:56] <guy> quickly because it looks like they want to pop but can't while oil is in this position
[11:19:12] <guy> okay - small break in oil - let's see if my theory holds any water...
[11:24:50] <guy> Looks like 625.8 is a ceiling
[11:24:56] <signal> [img]
[11:24:57] <guy> from yesterday and today
[11:30:30] <signal> [img]
[11:32:06] <guy> the ER2 moved up a little bit but not as much as I was expecting for this move down in oil
[11:37:04] <guy> okay - potential for new HOD here...
[11:43:26] <guy> ER2 moving up and oil dropping
[11:43:27] <signal> [img]
[11:43:39] <guy> notice how the developing VA is moving up here
[11:55:14] <guy> DVA established now
[11:55:17] <signal> [img]
[11:56:46] <signal> [img]
[11:56:51] <guy> Comparison of MP graphic produced by DVATool and eSignal
[12:00:55] <guy> Rotation Factors at midday:
[12:01:02] <signal> [img]
[12:30:26] <signal> [img]
[12:32:13] <guy> okay - another possibility here for a new HOD in ER2....
[12:32:30] <guy> Here's ER2 chart
[12:32:39] <guy> alpha buy signal 5 minutes ago
[12:32:39] <signal> [img]
[12:32:51] <guy> showing all the signs of popping to new HOD...
[12:33:03] <guy> current HOD is 626.7 I think
[12:33:11] <guy> price now 626.0
[12:53:17] <signal> [img]
[12:53:18] <guy>
[12:53:18] <guy> Buys ER2 @ 625.3
[12:53:18] <guy>

[12:53:37] <guy>
[12:53:37] <guy> exit stop set ER2 @ 624.3
[12:53:37] <guy>

[13:00:25] <guy> Rotation Factors
[13:00:36] <signal> [img]
[13:04:01] <tuna> vwap at 624.3 fwiw
[13:04:38] <guy> thanks tuna
[13:09:03] <tuna> this dpoc looks interesting
[13:10:29] <guy> yup - if often sup/res
[13:17:59] <guy>
[13:17:59] <guy> stop hit ER2 @ 624.3 --> - 1
[13:17:59] <guy>

[13:32:42] <tuna> chris in ingo's room post 2 day vwaps..622.7 fwiw
[13:33:57] <signal> [img]
[13:34:03] <guy> thanks tuna
[13:35:09] <tuna> he says it usually trades there a least once a day
[13:35:48] <tuna> been there a few times today
[13:37:29] <tuna> its a feature in real tick
[13:56:27] <mashhad> Hi
[13:56:36] <guy> hi - just sending you email now...
[13:56:57] <mashhad> ok thanks
[13:57:06] <mashhad> any trades today so far?
[13:57:37] <guy> 2 trades: both losers
[13:57:52] <mashhad> ok
[13:58:25] <guy> I seem to have gone into "bad trade" mode
[13:58:39] <guy> not sure what's happening to myself
[13:59:17] <mashhad> were they ER trades?
[13:59:34] <guy> yes
[14:00:10] <guy> Here is the second one:
[14:00:18] <guy> [12:53:18] <guy> Buys ER2 @ 625.3
[14:00:24] <guy> [13:17:59] <guy> stop hit ER2 @ 624.3 --> - 1
[14:00:40] <guy> but i had a power failure earlier so the first one isn't on my screen right now
[14:00:50] <guy> but will be posted on the web tomorrow with the log
[14:00:56] <mashhad> ok
[14:01:03] <guy> You know that the log is posted on the web right?
[14:01:51] <signal> [img]
[14:02:06] <guy> .
[14:02:42] <guy> Here is a trade that I took a few minutes ago and then scratched it at break even:
[14:02:50] <signal> [img]
[14:03:11] <guy> I was using a combination of DVAL + TimerA1 + AlphaA2 to pick that buy.
[14:03:34] <guy> I took 6 ticks of heat on it and then I decided that the market wasn't going to turn so put in an order to scratch
[14:03:44] <guy> When I scratched it the market continued up.
[14:04:04] <guy> So it appears that the problem at the moment is with the trader (myself) and not with the strategy.
[14:29:56] <guy> Here's that ER2 trade that I didn't post:
[14:29:58] <guy> again
[14:29:59] <signal> [img]
[14:30:15] <guy> Classic case of good signals but problem with the trader following through
[14:30:41] <guy> Here come Rotation Factors:
[14:30:44] <signal> [img]
[14:32:23] <mikee> 1205
[14:32:48] <mikee> we need to clear, then pullback, bounce and up again
[14:48:54] <mikee> i guess it's long here es
[14:49:19] <mikee> prefer. 1203, but...
[14:50:26] <tuna> er luvs the vwap
[14:52:50] <mikee> if someone bought it already +1
[14:55:23] <mikee> k, clearing 1205 now
[14:56:01] <mikee> not enough
[14:56:53] <guy> I believe that was DIBH on ES
[14:56:56] <guy> 1205.5
[14:57:30] <guy> The blue dotted line at the top of this chart
[14:57:31] <signal> [img]
[14:58:13] <tuna> guy the spoos blew though it dibh
[14:58:45] <tuna> ym too fwiw
[14:58:47] <guy> by how many ticks tuna?
[14:59:10] <tuna> 7
[14:59:21] <tuna> on spoos
[14:59:29] <guy> Here is YM with IB lines:
[14:59:38] <signal> [img]
[14:59:40] <guy> thanks tuna
[15:00:22] <guy> And split counts / rotation factors:
[15:00:27] <signal> [img]
[15:30:28] <guy> Last of the RFs for the day...
[15:30:29] <signal> [img]
[15:33:04] <tuna> back to the vwap
[15:35:00] <guy> 624.5 is vwap in ER2 ?
[15:35:24] <tuna> 24.4
[15:36:16] <guy> thx
[16:05:21] <guy> gn all
[16:05:26] <guy> have a good evening
[16:05:36] * Disconnected
Session Close: Thu Jun 02 16:05:38 2005