Welcome back everybody! Here is my refreshed view of the current situation in ES.

The scale of the recent move up made it very improbable that the move off April's high is impulsive to the downside. Thus it should be considered as correction of the March 09 - April 10 rise.
The question remains if the early July low at .382 was IT if it comes for the whole correction. In my opinion the time factor makes it rather unlikely since it lasted less than 1/5th of the preceding move.
Therefore I'm looking for a bigger ABCD from April's high with its CD leg still to come. The BC leg of such ABCD should be an ABCD itself and that gives us few spots to watch on the way up. The first one is already at Friday's high:





We have a nice potential bearish TD ABCD right at .786 and X marks the spot. Interestingly the bigger ABCD with such BC leg would finish right in the 900 area, which was mentioned here couple of times...

This looks like acceleration to the upside through my area above, but we are still in the Game Zone, so anything can happen here:

Not too much to comment today, but they reversed it in the middle of the Game Zone right at clear geometrical target. Roofer's line should be now hit before the uptrend can resume:

This 4.50 area is quite key for me. It started to bounce, now let's see if it rolls over and takes it out. Lots of short-term things at that spot. It may need a bigger pullback if this level doesn't hold.

Yep, so far, 4.50 it is.

Nice read at 4.50... Watching 11 area next, plus or minus the usual tolerance. Then I can see what it does from there. Assuming, of course, it gets through the 'Game Zone' here and keeps rising.

12.50 is the next 'sub-level' after 11, but the area above 16 into the 17's is really calling this (16.25-17.25), if it has the time...

And, as always when in a situation like this, watch closely when it 'one ticks' the high, as it just did, as some vicious selloffs have started from such a move.

Getting ready for 11, and then 12.50, and then...

Personally, I think the ES should just go up like 10+ points per day every day, with a +30 or more thrown in once per week or so. In fact, I think they should just make it a law.

Let me mention that the area of 12.50-17.50, give or take, is a monster area on my higher timeframe, a real do or die for this ridiculous run up. But, I am ready to concede this may rise until well into 2011 before a 'real' bear market leg takes place. I'm not saying this will happen, only that it is fully within the realm of possibility as the FED cues up QE2 and turns the turbo printers on full.

So, it topped out at 1103.50, with a one-tick program game, close enough to my 1104 area to say my post was 'dead on' (given the usual tolerance for an area and that I only post the appx. center in order to get the post out in a timely manner). It sold more than I actually expected (6.50 points), I guess it was some 'profit taking'. That checkback sets it up nicely for the next leg up in the Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday game.