Welcome back everybody! Here is my refreshed view of the current situation in ES.

The scale of the recent move up made it very improbable that the move off April's high is impulsive to the downside. Thus it should be considered as correction of the March 09 - April 10 rise.
The question remains if the early July low at .382 was IT if it comes for the whole correction. In my opinion the time factor makes it rather unlikely since it lasted less than 1/5th of the preceding move.
Therefore I'm looking for a bigger ABCD from April's high with its CD leg still to come. The BC leg of such ABCD should be an ABCD itself and that gives us few spots to watch on the way up. The first one is already at Friday's high:





We have a nice potential bearish TD ABCD right at .786 and X marks the spot. Interestingly the bigger ABCD with such BC leg would finish right in the 900 area, which was mentioned here couple of times...

And the ABCD doesn't cause a reaction, and the 'W3' manifests. Now watch the typical 'W3' areas, as the 'Game Zone' gets close, and we see if they actually plan to sell on a Friday, or if they'll just pick it right back up and start running it to prep for the Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday ramp.

So far they completely 'see' the area here, but how they act after this first little push up will tell me a lot. I'm staying short-side bias until proven otherwise (which they may do any second, we'll see).

I'm watching 94.00-94.50 here to see if this bounce, right at the expected area, fades or accelerates.

You want clues, you got 'em. We got the acceleration. Notice this bounce, which is now a full six points, happened right off the area I said to watch. Notice the TL here? Let's see what it does. Lather, rinse, repeat. Find the areas, see how it reacts, construct a trade premise, and so on. Over and over.

And there's the answer to the TL question. Getting close to the RTH HOD... Just watch, first, to make sure the TL break isn't a break and snap back crush.

Mud is just going nuts.

ES takes out that TL, then just 'consolidates' around it in the form of a choppy tick ABCD, and then bursts up for a new high for the move. Sweet. Next clue: was that it, with that final 'W5' looking burst? Or is another leg up starting? We'll know soon in here I think.

I suspect this will rise until the close. I did switch to upside bias when this 'proved' itself back at that key area I mentioned once it started up. But, this is a key spot here, with a 3-4-5 look to it, so I will give this respect here as a possible ending point for the rush up. But, the MRRD's are back in control, and I can't see them giving that up headed into a Friday close/Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday sequence. We'll see, it is a tough area here.

Another new high for the move, off an EXP ABCD which was another retest of that TL.

Now watch here after this typical move off a 'W4' positioned ABCD, right at a SL, and see if it checks back/reverses. If not, I'd expect strong acceleration upwards. Given they want that RTH HOD, I'd more expect the latter.

So, it topped out at 1103.50, with a one-tick program game, close enough to my 1104 area to say my post was 'dead on' (given the usual tolerance for an area and that I only post the appx. center in order to get the post out in a timely manner). It sold more than I actually expected (6.50 points), I guess it was some 'profit taking'. That checkback sets it up nicely for the next leg up in the Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday game.