Welcome back everybody! Here is my refreshed view of the current situation in ES.

The scale of the recent move up made it very improbable that the move off April's high is impulsive to the downside. Thus it should be considered as correction of the March 09 - April 10 rise.
The question remains if the early July low at .382 was IT if it comes for the whole correction. In my opinion the time factor makes it rather unlikely since it lasted less than 1/5th of the preceding move.
Therefore I'm looking for a bigger ABCD from April's high with its CD leg still to come. The BC leg of such ABCD should be an ABCD itself and that gives us few spots to watch on the way up. The first one is already at Friday's high:





We have a nice potential bearish TD ABCD right at .786 and X marks the spot. Interestingly the bigger ABCD with such BC leg would finish right in the 900 area, which was mentioned here couple of times...

There would be no way to differentiate which it is when it's flat across the top and bottom. But, ABCD's in CD legs don't make technical sense, whereas in a BC leg they not only make technical sense, they are strongly preferable. So, my point is it may be an ABCD with an ABCD in the BC leg, a structurally sound pattern on which I could base a trade premise. If it were the case of an ABCD in the CD leg I would pass on the setup, but I can't know this, even after the fact, because the entire thing is flat (and it is really a moot point, because there is no way to differentiate the two). But, in other ABCD's the layout is frequently a lot more clear because it isn't entirely flat, and the ABCD pops out as clearly being in the BC leg many times.

I need to add on to what I said above. Actually, an ABCD in the CD leg is only a deal breaker for me in a standard ABCD. They can be fine in a flat, or in the other ABCD's, and sometimes they make for quite nice setups. So, in this case with a flat it could be viewed either way and the trade premise would still be valid. I just prefer the ABCD in the BC leg, as that fits the best impulsive/corrective/impulsive structure for an ABCD that I like the best.

In a flat like this I think it really is more like an abcde correction that is simply flat, since as I said there is no way to differentiate which layout it is in a flat anyway. Besides, this gets too into wave counting, which I feel is unecessary for trading, and if anything, detracts from good trading. What I take from Elliott is impulsive and corrective, and how to spot a correction in a trend, and its likely ending area, as well as certain red flags to keep me out of situations that aren't likely to play out.

What I see here is a 5-legged correction, and hence a likely imminent decision point. How one labels the legs isn't really that important to me, be it abcde, ABCD with an ABCD in the BC leg or in the CD leg. What is key is recognizing the corrective structure and placing it in the proper 'context' to make a trade premise decision.

So this mess from yesterday was simply an AB leg of a standard zigzag 1.000 ABCD:






I wonder if it also finished right on Jim's line from higher timeframe

... and we already had a bearish TD ABCD followed by bearish 4PT in the move of this zigzag ABCD above, suggesting more downside to come:

What I clearly missed is that right at LOD there is a possible bullish 1.000 ABCD of which the zigzag above is just a BC leg:





3 legs in CD leg might suggest that it should fail but it definitely needs to be taken into account.

There is another possible bearish ABCD exactly at the same line as earlier bearish TD:





If broken to the upside - W3 from the LOD would be confirmed

That's some great work, jarek.

Six minutes to the 'Tan book' release. It might move the market. Only one way it can move after Fed news: up. Why? If the news isn't good, the MRRD's will be ready to buy to support the concept that bad news is really good news. Just Jim's view on the world.

Report is out, it's just awful.

How come the market isn't plunging on high volume? Hmmmm.

So, it topped out at 1103.50, with a one-tick program game, close enough to my 1104 area to say my post was 'dead on' (given the usual tolerance for an area and that I only post the appx. center in order to get the post out in a timely manner). It sold more than I actually expected (6.50 points), I guess it was some 'profit taking'. That checkback sets it up nicely for the next leg up in the Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday game.