Welcome back everybody! Here is my refreshed view of the current situation in ES.

The scale of the recent move up made it very improbable that the move off April's high is impulsive to the downside. Thus it should be considered as correction of the March 09 - April 10 rise.
The question remains if the early July low at .382 was IT if it comes for the whole correction. In my opinion the time factor makes it rather unlikely since it lasted less than 1/5th of the preceding move.
Therefore I'm looking for a bigger ABCD from April's high with its CD leg still to come. The BC leg of such ABCD should be an ABCD itself and that gives us few spots to watch on the way up. The first one is already at Friday's high:





We have a nice potential bearish TD ABCD right at .786 and X marks the spot. Interestingly the bigger ABCD with such BC leg would finish right in the 900 area, which was mentioned here couple of times...

There's 11.

Originally posted by jarek

... Roofer's line should be now hit before the uptrend can resume...

Originally posted by jimkane

This 4.50 area is quite key for me...

So I had it wrong, Jim had it right. Day as usual

Originally posted by jimkane

Personally, I think the ES should just go up like 10+ points per day every day, with a +30 or more thrown in once per week or so. In fact, I think they should just make it a law.

11.75 high on the day. Is that it for now, a real checkback coming? I'll believe that when I see it. Straight up until well into 2011, that's what I see. Hmmm, with an average of say 14 points per day (four 10's and a 30 per week), that would be about 3,500 points by next year at this time. That would be ES 4,600. Sounds about right. All on ever-decreasing volume, huge outflows from mutual funds, and ongoing terrible economic news.

Here's something interesting to watch. FDX gaps up on a big upbeat report. Gaps right to an ABCD at a key line area. It then starts to pull back, and does so in a small ABCD (look at a 15-min) that it reacts to. It then cloes right at the line, and the ABCD 'test point'. Now, if I were bearish the market I'd think this was a gift from the trading gods setup.

The ES is at that key area I said from the higher timeframe (roughly 12.50-17.50). The gap up in FDX will scare most bears and embolden most bulls. Everything is set up for a big crush from here. That's what the geometry says. My gut says FDX opens on a gap up (again) over the area, and blasts off from there, or simply blasts off on the open. The ES blasts through its key area and is free to run. Will it be geometry, or my gut? I can't wait to see. Can the geometry overcome the giddiness and government money right in here???

So, the upper area I mentioned was at 17.50, and this hit 18.75 in the GLOBEX. I'd say the area was fully hit. A nice little drop right off that ensued. But it stops about where I'd expect, bounces up to an obvious line area, and drops again. But now it sits right at the 'Game Zone', which seems to have stopped it dead. Now we get some clues. Is that it, and my higher timeframe area gets blown right out? Or will it check back a more reasonable amount? Look at gold, as jarek pointed out. Fear is totally gone. There simply isn't any worry we are in any trouble anymore at all. Everything 'high risk' is now riskless, in the market's eyes. That may mean we are headed up big-time, or this thing is about to be crushed. With Helicopter Ben, I can't see the latter...

And no sooner did I get that posted and they absolutely exploded it off the 'Game Zone'...

Any chance this is a bearish 4PT here, set up as a 'W2' off the 'top'? It's worth watching, but I wouldn't count on it. But it may be...

What a roller coaster day. Alas, though, they want to explode it up. The 4PT went to a hybrid 4PT/Flat, went down right to the 'test' area, and is now back at that upper boundary. I think they will explode it up and over soon, to finish the day strong. We'll see. This may be a bigger essentially flat ABCD, with an ABCD in the BC leg, and then down hard. But, that is wishful thinking I suspect, as I think the bias is strongly up. Too bad, too, this key area at the HOD on the higher timeframe would be a technically beautiful place for the downtrend to resume. But nothing overcomes a hundred trillion in FED money...

Originally posted by jimkane

What a roller coaster day. Alas, though, they want to explode it up. The 4PT went to a hybrid 4PT/Flat, went down right to the 'test' area, and is now back at that upper boundary. I think they will explode it up and over soon, to finish the day strong. We'll see. This may be a bigger essentially flat ABCD, with an ABCD in the BC leg, and then down hard. But, that is wishful thinking I suspect, as I think the bias is strongly up. Too bad, too, this key area at the HOD on the higher timeframe would be a technically beautiful place for the downtrend to resume. But nothing overcomes a hundred trillion in FED money...

Why not ABCD in CD leg ? You said in ABCD in BC leg. I just wonder :)

So, it topped out at 1103.50, with a one-tick program game, close enough to my 1104 area to say my post was 'dead on' (given the usual tolerance for an area and that I only post the appx. center in order to get the post out in a timely manner). It sold more than I actually expected (6.50 points), I guess it was some 'profit taking'. That checkback sets it up nicely for the next leg up in the Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday game.