Welcome back everybody! Here is my refreshed view of the current situation in ES.

The scale of the recent move up made it very improbable that the move off April's high is impulsive to the downside. Thus it should be considered as correction of the March 09 - April 10 rise.
The question remains if the early July low at .382 was IT if it comes for the whole correction. In my opinion the time factor makes it rather unlikely since it lasted less than 1/5th of the preceding move.
Therefore I'm looking for a bigger ABCD from April's high with its CD leg still to come. The BC leg of such ABCD should be an ABCD itself and that gives us few spots to watch on the way up. The first one is already at Friday's high:





We have a nice potential bearish TD ABCD right at .786 and X marks the spot. Interestingly the bigger ABCD with such BC leg would finish right in the 900 area, which was mentioned here couple of times...

Got to love those ABCD's!

I'd be expecting a bounce right in here, or even the end of this move. If not, the selling pressure may greatly increase.

Originally posted by jimkane

I'd be expecting a bounce right in here, or even the end of this move. If not, the selling pressure may greatly increase.

Why don't you expect the completion of the move to the most obvious target?

My management approach, as discussed ad nauseum, is to trail a stop and to try to stay with a move, letting the move come against me to varying degrees as it tells me to start closing (and continue closing if keeps going back on me). Key areas tell me where to move to, and start tightening up, the trailing stops. This is covered in the books, and to a much deeper degree with my one-on-one students.

Originally posted by jimkane

Got to love those ABCD's!

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by jimkane

I'd be expecting a bounce right in here, or even the end of this move. If not, the selling pressure may greatly increase.

Why don't you expect the completion of the move to the most obvious target?

Because the bulls/MRRD's sense the extreme danger of this key overhead area and the failure of that bullish ABCD, and I suspect they plan to come in here soon and make a manipulation stand, for fear of losing control of this. Maybe they won't, maybe they'll let it go for a bit, given the big run up, but I don't think only the technicals are in play right here. So, as I mentioned in my last post, I still look to manage a situation like this by letting it play out, but I am very suspicious in here of the manipulators.

Get ready...

Originally posted by jimkane

Get ready...

Right on cue...

Careful, though, that may be it. We all know what's right here. Now we see.

Reacted right to that area, back to a .447 to the tick (and the area it is reacting to initially is a .447, to the tick), and then right back up to the area. I think it will give way this time. We'll see.

Well, now, look at that reaction there on the second try. Bullish flat ABCD now, let's see. I'd sure love it if this failed in here and rolled down hard.

So, it topped out at 1103.50, with a one-tick program game, close enough to my 1104 area to say my post was 'dead on' (given the usual tolerance for an area and that I only post the appx. center in order to get the post out in a timely manner). It sold more than I actually expected (6.50 points), I guess it was some 'profit taking'. That checkback sets it up nicely for the next leg up in the Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday game.