Welcome back everybody! Here is my refreshed view of the current situation in ES.

The scale of the recent move up made it very improbable that the move off April's high is impulsive to the downside. Thus it should be considered as correction of the March 09 - April 10 rise.
The question remains if the early July low at .382 was IT if it comes for the whole correction. In my opinion the time factor makes it rather unlikely since it lasted less than 1/5th of the preceding move.
Therefore I'm looking for a bigger ABCD from April's high with its CD leg still to come. The BC leg of such ABCD should be an ABCD itself and that gives us few spots to watch on the way up. The first one is already at Friday's high:





We have a nice potential bearish TD ABCD right at .786 and X marks the spot. Interestingly the bigger ABCD with such BC leg would finish right in the 900 area, which was mentioned here couple of times...

Kane DT ABCD & KANE FLAT ABCD.

Good Trading,

Al Kamego

Boring day... Just ride and wait until the close. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Well, maybe zzzzzzzzzzzzzz cah-ching?

Very interesting. It overshot my key area by 2 points, right to my next line, and some selling started. No ride until close??? So, it's now pulled back to a key .300/.382 overlap. Will they resume the upward push to try for the GLOBEX high in the next 1/2 hour, of which 15 minutes is after-cash? I'm not so sure what the odds are on this one in here, I rather suspect this checkback took some wind out of the bull's sails. I think it may keep selling (least likely), or most likely just chop like crazy. I'm hoping for the selling.

Very interesting (and satisfying ), that they could sell this any more after the initial push down to the 'trend continuation' area. I'd think after all the work the MRRD's did after the steady manipulation down, they'd not let any sellers come in. (And yes, I think essentially every move in this market is a manipulation. Not only do I think they are interfering with the free market, I think the free market is completely gone, and everything, 24/7, is a controlled manipulation. Just my opinion.) I'm really anxious to see what they do from here in the overnight and tomorrow, as this heads into the weekend and the Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday nonsense.

A really nice area for this to hit today would be the 92 area. But, with only six minutes left in the aftermarket, that's not likely. Maybe once GLOBEX reopens. But it would only be technically interesting if it did it soon, withing the first hour or so, I'd have to see as it developed. Just something to watch. It has to do with that TL I mentioned before that was so successfully backtested.

Remember to watch WFC, FDX, and to a lesser extent the crazy RDN for higher timeframe clues. They have all dropped off their ABCD's, as I suspected they would. Notice FDX formed a smaller bullish ABCD, which it reacted to. There are many other issues that have bearish ABCD's in the same area. Find your own examples to watch in addition to these.

Originally posted by jimkane

I'd be expecting a bounce right in here, or even the end of this move...

This was posted yesterday at 15:12. The low of 99.25 was at 15:11 and retested at 15:21 (and the highest point between the first low and the retest was only 1.50 points off the low, hence my post was before the movement had really gotten started). It then went up overnight, right off this area, to 1113, some 13.75 points. I'd say I nailed that one pretty much dead on???

Sweet! KaneTrading rocks!

Good Trading,

Al Kamego

Watch the bullish ABCD right in here, around a 13-min traded timeframe. Very key to see what it does here.

Keep in mind, 'context-wise' I'm looking for a 'W3' type move in here, the ABCD becomes useful for me to see if the bearish viewpoint is staying 'in play'. If not, an ABCD is a good place for them to pick it up. Understand, every 'W3' is a failed potential ABCD.

So, it topped out at 1103.50, with a one-tick program game, close enough to my 1104 area to say my post was 'dead on' (given the usual tolerance for an area and that I only post the appx. center in order to get the post out in a timely manner). It sold more than I actually expected (6.50 points), I guess it was some 'profit taking'. That checkback sets it up nicely for the next leg up in the Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday game.