Click image for original size
We may not know the answer to this question for some time to come, but in my opinion this is a viable alternative to consider!
JA
jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Can the recent high in February stay with us for quite longer than almost everybody is expecting at this point?
We may not know the answer to this question for some time to come, but in my opinion this is a viable alternative to consider!
We may not know the answer to this question for some time to come, but in my opinion this is a viable alternative to consider!
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I saw a potential teaching moment here, so I thought I'd post. I'm a bit reluctant, though, since I've been through so much 'out there', I'm gunshy as can be, even in my own forum, where no one really acts badly. Still, I want to look at an example joed posted in his blog today. If I had even a lick of sense I would choose my own examples, and stay as far from anyone else's posts as possible. This way, there can't be any reason why anyone would get upset about my post.
I'm only going down this route because I don't have any examples ready at hand, I saw something here I thought was worth mentioning, and that's it. I figure if I can't even look at the same examples as joed, then something is wrong with this forum, too, and I'll just shut it down. Point is, no one slam me because I'm trying to add value to a post he made. And yes, I'm real gunshy right now.
Look at SLW. That is a spectacular confluence there, and I have at least one more really perfect line, an .886, and some other things there. It also got there with a really strong, 'overdone', potentially exhaustive move. But, when I looked over my work, I can't help but feel it is drawn to the obvious SL. If this takes some time (it's acting like it won't take much time), there is this amazing confluence of a 1.460 and a 1.272 with that line, around 48.55-48.70.
Above that is another tight confluence around 50.30-50.68. Unless it took a lot of time, both would be overthrows of the SL. There is, though, a second SL that hits that 48.55-48.70 confluence, and hits it best around Monday. If it shot straight up tomorrow the SL lines up with a 1.128 around the low to mid-47 level.
So, how is the silver futures contract situated? Well, start with Eric's fine work from today on that. Silver just hit almost to the 1.272 off that last ABCD, at a new high for the entire bull, and did it with vigor. It surely could back off in here with ease. It also could keep spurting up, given the frenzy. There's a SL above, and that would line up with the higher area(s) for SLW. Perhaps it sees joed's incredible confluence and backs off strongly from that, and then comes in to a KZ at line(s), and then heads up to the higher areas.
All I can say is, this SL above is calling out to this big time, and although I'd pretty much never bet against anything joed said, when I see this scenario in the ES it almost always reaches the SL. I thought this one would be great for everyone to do their own workup on, and follow along. If it goes up, think how you would manage this one off that 3/16 low, like you hit it there. If it backs off, think how you would manage it if you were long, again, off that 3/16 low. If you want, think how you would manage it on the short side, and what areas would concern you as it goes down. This one is a golden opportunity for learning in my opinion, so I wanted to get it out there so people can do some work on it.
Now I just sit back, wincing, hoping no one slams me because I used a joed post...
I'm only going down this route because I don't have any examples ready at hand, I saw something here I thought was worth mentioning, and that's it. I figure if I can't even look at the same examples as joed, then something is wrong with this forum, too, and I'll just shut it down. Point is, no one slam me because I'm trying to add value to a post he made. And yes, I'm real gunshy right now.
Look at SLW. That is a spectacular confluence there, and I have at least one more really perfect line, an .886, and some other things there. It also got there with a really strong, 'overdone', potentially exhaustive move. But, when I looked over my work, I can't help but feel it is drawn to the obvious SL. If this takes some time (it's acting like it won't take much time), there is this amazing confluence of a 1.460 and a 1.272 with that line, around 48.55-48.70.
Above that is another tight confluence around 50.30-50.68. Unless it took a lot of time, both would be overthrows of the SL. There is, though, a second SL that hits that 48.55-48.70 confluence, and hits it best around Monday. If it shot straight up tomorrow the SL lines up with a 1.128 around the low to mid-47 level.
So, how is the silver futures contract situated? Well, start with Eric's fine work from today on that. Silver just hit almost to the 1.272 off that last ABCD, at a new high for the entire bull, and did it with vigor. It surely could back off in here with ease. It also could keep spurting up, given the frenzy. There's a SL above, and that would line up with the higher area(s) for SLW. Perhaps it sees joed's incredible confluence and backs off strongly from that, and then comes in to a KZ at line(s), and then heads up to the higher areas.
All I can say is, this SL above is calling out to this big time, and although I'd pretty much never bet against anything joed said, when I see this scenario in the ES it almost always reaches the SL. I thought this one would be great for everyone to do their own workup on, and follow along. If it goes up, think how you would manage this one off that 3/16 low, like you hit it there. If it backs off, think how you would manage it if you were long, again, off that 3/16 low. If you want, think how you would manage it on the short side, and what areas would concern you as it goes down. This one is a golden opportunity for learning in my opinion, so I wanted to get it out there so people can do some work on it.
Now I just sit back, wincing, hoping no one slams me because I used a joed post...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
BTW, the 'hint' that the ES gave me earlier that it was ready to move up, that's totally gone now, and I'm utterly ambivalent about it as it sits right now, coiling in here. Just seeing what it does from here...
Recall what I said about guessing my way out of a range.
Recall what I said about guessing my way out of a range.
ER
EricD
Rep: 63
Posts: 692
Jim I think that is great insight and food for thought...Don't forget, this is your forum. I could care less what any of the Public members or anyone else says. I just respect the insight of the traders in this Private forum.
ER
EricD
Rep: 63
Posts: 692
So far following the script....Now building a Premise and a Roadmap.....will be stalking the areas as clues from the price action.
Click image for original size
Click image for original size
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Great charts, Eric. The last one on SLW shows my other set (which gives the downsloping key line right at today's high), both the SL's, the overlaps in Fibs I mentioned, and the sets joed showed. You can see the areas very clearly. Mostly it's the experience I have had with similar layouts and how the magnet really pulls to the SL's that caught my attention. Can't deny the area in here, but I also can't ignore how many times I've seen this act like a magnet. So, instead of saying after-the-fact that I wish I would have laid this out, I wanted to do it before-the-fact, so people can study it. It's great that you charted it for me. Lots of nice work you are showing there with all those charts. Very nice, indeed.