With the bearish case on Bonds being so touted recently I'm wondering whether it's not a big smokescreen suggesting that quite opposite may happen... Especially after looking at the following charts:

Well, I think 132-134 is very possible. But, I don't think what we are seeing now is necessarily a smokescreen. When positions are built for big moves by big players, they build into a top or bottom. For example, when insiders accumulate they accumulate into a bottom, not once it starts to rise. It starts to rise because they have accumulated all they want, and then they shift the sentiment, start talking bullish, and so on. The same at a distribution top. They distribute into the rise, not once it starts selling.

Imagine trying to sell all your extensive holdings and then build a huge short position, all once the top is in. Not what an insider would do. They sell on the way up, and that, by definition, puts them under water most of the way up. They know and accept this. They are part of the entire process. So, maybe in this case they say they expect to see 132 or 134, maybe a bit higher. They decide 120 may be a good starting point. They'll sell all the way up to 134 say. That's how it is done. So, the initial position may see 14 points of heat. That's all factored in.

Now, why all the public discussion and so on? Because their positions are revealed publicly anyway, so it can't be hidden. Why not talk about it so people don't conclude the wrong things? But, they may have all sorts of motivations, including being paid by the Fed to take the positions so that almost everyone rebels and buys treasuries, which the Fed needs. Who knows. I've never seen so many people resist Gross and cheer for his demise on this. The reaction is most profound.

Instead of seeing him as an insider who always wins and should be respected, almost everyone is fighting him on this. I suspect that was known ahead of time from poll/research results, and they may have seen a heaven sent opportunity to capitalize on that sentiment. 'It's all part of the plan.' We'll see. All I can say is if this hits 134 I'll still be saying it's all part of the plan, and that you'll likely see he sold all the way up, and will make an absolute fortune when the treasury market collapses.

This may be a multi-year position for him, or longer. Just something to consider. The level of heat these guys can and are willing to take is huge. If he were $100 billion in the hole most would say 'See, he's toast, just like I said', and I'd say 'Things are right on schedule, right as he, and I, suspected'.

Hmmm, the futures are down on a Sunday night. Will wonders never cease. The dollar is even up a little. Now, based on the immediate price action, I'm watching to see if this starts to rise off this 26.75 low, or if it puts another drive down in (to 25.50-26.00) and then rises. I'm still not convinced they will sell this with any conviction on a Sunday night. But, this is now trading below the key level that bounced this into an ABCD on Friday. Thing is, this is now a 1.460 ext ret move off that ABCD, and that may stop this for now. We'll see. It is one thing I'm watching, though. Otherwise, my lower levels have been clearly stated in last week's thread.

Take a look at the Feb top, on say a 240-min all-sessions, and then look at the May top. Focus on what it did after that. Look at the 2-3 weeks after the top, then and now. See any similarities? Now, is that spooky, or what? I'd think the odds of this following a similar path for much longer would be slim, as the computers must see this. But, it is something to be aware of. Amazing, if you ask me.

Up now? Let's see.

ES 240 with the Feb and May tops marked per Jim's observations.



Even the run-up to the tops looks similar.

Exactly, tx. Pretty eerie, huh? Can't imagine it would play out the same way, with everyone watching this...

Originally posted by tx_ches

ES 240 with the Feb and May tops marked per Jim's observations.

Click image for original size

Even the run-up to the tops looks similar.

Click image for original size

Nope. They can't get this off the floor, even with a good launch area like that.

Originally posted by jimkane

Up now? Let's see.

So our last bearish KZ ABCD played out fully on Sunday night? That's something new, maybe a sign of changing times:



This ABCD still could have been W4 of the move down, but the bounce here doesn't look encouraging for bulls so far...

...and they better do something quickly with this another small bearish ABCD looking as just a return move to the broken TL:

Third attempt at ML underway. Maybe with such a dynamic movement it will finally succeed.

just traders trading..... if the red line green set on yesterdays close was to be valid,in the face of the insane last hour bullishness, then OUR TOOLS, AND NOTHING ELSE.... should have pointed to RISK OFF!!! in the face of the manipulation in the indexes.... i think they did their job.... and all the way down today... they said repeatedly trend day shooting for targets...