I guess Jarek isn't back yet.

Mostly I'm basing that WAG on how stupid and idiotic this market has been lately. But, alas, a huge, key line I have been waiting on was hit at the LOD today, and it produced a big reaction. If that gives way there is another key line not too far below that it may do a final roll to, and then up. That's something they could do in the overnight if they had such a plan. Regardless, this is a substantial area in here, and if they forsake it, I'd think it would find itself in quite a precarious position, and they know that.

So I'm thinking 1175-80. I'd think it would hit that tomorrow, but who knows, maybe it takes a little longer. But, I doubt it. That would be about 50 off the LOD. Sounds right for a one day snap reversal. We'll see. It just depends on if it follow that pattern of last week, or not. We should have some indication long before tomorrow's open, I suspect.

I can refine this later as more data becomes available, but around 76 or so is the center of my area. Again, it seems crazy, and I'm in no way making a prediction here. It may just roll right over on more 'bad news'. If so, I'll be ready to act on that. I don't really care what it does, as long as it moves. But, I will be really shocked if they don't take this opportunity to do another stupid taxpayer/saver sponsored ramp right to that spot.

Looking at the layout, there is reason to think 1190 is an area it would really want to test if it were going to head back down afterwards, so I'm keeping that in mind, too. 1175-80, though, is a monster convergence. It's possible it 'peaks around' the area and hits towards that 1190 and then craters. Just some scenarios. If it were up to me, they'd dump this tonight and take it down 700 Dow points...

And is this a bearish TD in here on say a 30-min timeframe? Set up to perhaps be a 'W4'? Yes to both. I'll be watching that. It could even send this down to the slightly lower line I mentioned before, and then up. We'll see. Exciting stuff. I don't care what it does, as long as it reacts to the areas that I am watching.

Okay, here's something I would have bet another gazillion dollars against. Since I'm up two gazillion right now, I'm glad I didn't make this bet, or I'd be back to one gazillion. Carl Futia now says the May top was the end of the bull market, and the bear will last until April/May 2012!!! Carl Futia bearish!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It can't be. I mean, it can't be. That's like saying Larry Kudlow and CNBC is bearish. No, every dip is buyable, all the way even to zero.

I am reeling, trying to interpret what it means that Carl is now saying (now that many indices are down well over 20%) that we are in a bear market at this point. My gut says the low is in and new highs are coming. I'm not slamming Carl here at all, it's just that it seems like such a contrarian signal. He of all people should know that, given that he wrote a book on contrarian signals, and also that he has been pounding the table hard lately how the bull is intact, and new highs will be coming soon. He finally capitulated all this way down. What does that say??? Anyway, I thought this was worth posting:

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2011/08/lindsay-update.html

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2011/08/udate.html

if any theoretical construct is to work, our knowledge of the computers intent MUST be there....so i just trade.....

And gold breaks out to another new all-time high. I think that will likely be a daily theme for some time to come. The way to think of it is, gold higher, your life savings, retirement account, trading acount, down. Every time you hear gold up think all those accounts of yours down instead. It's the same thing, in my opinion. 'Do da maf!'

Okay, ES now turning up? I'm long side bias in the aftermarket now.

Another new all-time high in gold...

Wow, did they shake the tree all afternoon on the 1 and 3-min timeframes. I'm seasick. Glad to be able to take a break now. Pretty exciting stuff, though.