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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I'll kick it off this week. Here's a good article. We'll look back and laugh some day at all this. In case some of you don't get the reference (I don't want to make anyone feel bad, but if you are a trader and don't know this reference, you should be ashamed of yourself (as my mom used to say when I was a kid)), I posted a second link. Read the start of the third paragraph.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept14/perm-plateau9-14.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Anyway, for those that think Dragh Queen actually did anything...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100028046/the-ecb-is-blowing-smoke-in-our-eyes/
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Now, based on this, the futures should open down at least 30 in any realistic world where the market is connected to reality. Oh, but wait, this market hasn't been connected to reality in how long now? So, my guess is, 'they' know what the market would normally do, so 'they' will buy immediately, or even place massive orders before the open, so the pre-indications aren't down, and hence I suspect the futures will be up a little. It is what it is, but trust me, in a sane world they'd be down at least 30. And perhaps another 30 for the next post I will do when done with this one.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-07/europe-goes-all-will-sanction-rosneft-gazprom-neft-and-transneft
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Ruh-roh, Raggy. This one could be a system-killer (but it won't be). If Scotland does split off, it should change the game worldwide (hint, hint European Union), but it won't. So, add this in, and the futures should be down 60. My guess, open down 1.50-2.00, ramp up, maybe new all-time highs shortly after the open, or just drifting around right below.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-07/uk-full-panic-mode-rains-fire-and-brimstone-bribes-scotland-yes-independence-poll-cr
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
As an aside, I want Scotland to split off even more that I want the S&P at 400. I think it is the only thing I want more than the S&P at 400. I want the 'process' to get started. The European Union needs to break up, we need to become less 'globalized', and this could be a start to show that the unthinkable is not only thinkable, it's doable.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
BTW, I think the odds of Scotland actually splitting via this vote is about 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000001%. Even if they go into the vote with the polls showing a solid lead. That's just my gut feel, it ain't gonna happen, no way, no how.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Woo-hoo, down a whole point. Realistic, to me, would be down 60, it's down 1.00. The way this market is broken, it really does make perfect sense to me. Same old, same old.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Looking pretty disastrous, down 1.25 points now.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
At least the cable is reacting realistically to the upcoming vote, as it has been recently as the poll shifts more and more towards independence.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Down a whole 2 points! Woo-hoo.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Darn, I miss my European open conversations with Marcin already...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
The fascinating thins is, they swept it down, then up, then hit it down, the same exact pattern they have been doing, where the first move is the direction, then the trap the other way, to get both sides, then the real move. I had the timing, and I had the pattern. I didn't have the 'context', in that, like rat, I was thinking up was more likely. But, there is redemption in here, in that as soon as I saw the sweep on the other side fade I was able to recognize the game, as I've highlighted so many times in here lately, and realize what was likely unfolding.