I'll kick it off this week. Here's a good article. We'll look back and laugh some day at all this. In case some of you don't get the reference (I don't want to make anyone feel bad, but if you are a trader and don't know this reference, you should be ashamed of yourself (as my mom used to say when I was a kid)), I posted a second link. Read the start of the third paragraph.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept14/perm-plateau9-14.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher

Hmmm, was that the fake/trap up, now we actually get some down? Boy, would that be cool.

Nah, probably just a little DT ABCD here after a TL fake to the downside. Regardless, it closed cash right at this area, not making a decision either way, which we know is typical.

Shouldn't this matter at all?

"Last week, Investors Intelligence reported that the percentage of bearish advisors has dropped to a 27-year low of 13.3%, a level last seen in 1987 a few months prior to the market crash of that year."

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-08/john-hussmans-exit-rule-bubbles

Here's the full article, which is worth reading. It's basic, but really explains my concerns, and discusses, in general, why no one gets out, cycle after cycle, it's always the same. It has to be the same, or the game doesn't work.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140908.htm

My gut is seldom 'wrong', in my experience. Not like this is a big drop or anything (yet?), but it is more than enough to be able to have some pretty good positioning by now.

Originally posted by jimkane

But my gut said it's a short...

Anyway, it appears to be clear as this runs up to the European open that the low is in, and I would expect new all-time highs to be forthcoming. But, I will still watch how it acts at the open for clues that it will not sustain. We'll see. My gut still says this is going to weaken...

Anyway, my viewpoint since that low is 'wildly long'.

But to stay that way I need sustain on this early European session, and no weakness. Weakness changes my opinion from 'big move coming' to 'that was a nice, little trap there'.

Okay, watch to see if that's it, and the fake out is over. If it is, that would likely be it right there.

Okay, they came back in. Looking fine now. Watch the ABCD when it gets there, the overhead TL's, and, of course, the old price flow that sits right here where it is now. I love reading clues.

The fascinating thins is, they swept it down, then up, then hit it down, the same exact pattern they have been doing, where the first move is the direction, then the trap the other way, to get both sides, then the real move. I had the timing, and I had the pattern. I didn't have the 'context', in that, like rat, I was thinking up was more likely. But, there is redemption in here, in that as soon as I saw the sweep on the other side fade I was able to recognize the game, as I've highlighted so many times in here lately, and realize what was likely unfolding.