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FOMC Fed Day 20 March 2013

The next FOMC interest rate announcement will be on 20 March 2013 at 12:30pm.

Here's a chart showing the last 23 years of fed rates: Fed Rates Chart

Here's a collection of E-mini S&P500 charts from Fed Days: Fed Day Charts

Article and charts about Fed Days.

Implied probability of rate at this meeting:
0.00 (40%) (Last meeting: 42%)
0.25 (60%) (Last meeting: 58%)

On the last Fed Day on 30/January/2013 this is what the ES did:

I watched gapguys free video today (I don't really trade 'gaps', I like his videos because there's no one else awake at 5am when I start up the computers). Actually he produces lots of stats that only confuse me, so I only relly pay attention to the stats that 75% and higher... anyway.
In my absolute and abject boredom today I thought I'd relate that he did a study of gaps on the morning of the FOMC ANNC days (Today, Wed 3/20/13 is an FOMC ANNC day)

If I remember correctly,
Only 1 out of 3 Up gaps filled or were profitable by 12:15pm ET. He only looked at data up to 12:15pm because he wanted a set of data that was not influenced by a 12:30 or a 2:15 press conference.

BTW, he found that BUYING DOWN gaps on the morning of an FOMC announcement was strong for good returns, gap filled or was profitable like 83% of the time, average gain was near 3.5 points (I think)

(he assumes you BOT at open and either got out at gap fill or closed the position as of 12:15pm)

so it will be interesting to see if today is in line with history (only 1 out of 3 up gaps fills or is profitable by 12:15) -or- whether price fills.

So far today, as of 11:20am, the ES has ravaged speculators with a mind-numbing and trendless (except for sideways) 4.5 pt range in the RTH.
Release Date: March 20, 2013
For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year. Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent months but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
This makes for really interesting reading and i do look forward to the next update too. Thank you for providing this for me and all the other member of this forum to read.