craft- i have been posting my best work here. i guess this is my cave! i am sure you noticed that all three charts showed what is now my highest probability setup.draw a simple line connecting 3 pivots that ends in fib box. anchor medianline set on that line. price will go to medianline 90% of time....

m- here is the theory behind the trade if you need it... the line is based on 3 pivots.. medianline sets are based on 3 pivots.. the third pivot of the line is THE RETEST OF THE FIRST TWO... THUS IN THIS SPECIAL SETUP, DIFFERENT FROM ALL OTHERS, THE RETEST SETS UP AT FIB BEFORE THE MEDIANLINE SET IS DRAWN!THAT is why price turns and rarely looks back. the retest has already occured.. the setup stands classic medianline theory on its head for two reasons. the highest certainty sets for a long are anchored on a downsloping line and the retest occurs before the medianline set is drawn not after...i rarely trade any other setup anymore. no other setup carries with it the relaxed certainty with such a tight stop...

the third pivot is the retest, price rarely looks back... 90% of time price goes to medianline......i rarely trade any other setup anymore...no other setup has the certainty and tight stop based on a simple measure....now of course i know that yesterdays low was absolutely critical for the bulls.. but that knowledge does not make me money... the setup does...

i am focused on gld today because big picture it is at critical level...level holds price rockets. level not hold, new lows for gld ahead based on the kane pattern that 80% of time gives new lows... do i have the slightest idea which way it will go .no... so i am willing to probe both sides with pattern..

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Originally posted by roofer

m- here is the theory behind the trade if you need it... the line is based on 3 pivots.. medianline sets are based on 3 pivots.. the third pivot of the line is THE RETEST OF THE FIRST TWO... THUS IN THIS SPECIAL SETUP, DIFFERENT FROM ALL OTHERS, THE RETEST SETS UP AT FIB BEFORE THE MEDIANLINE SET IS DRAWN!THAT is why price turns and rarely looks back. the retest has already occured.. the setup stands classic medianline theory on its head for two reasons. the highest certainty sets for a long are anchored on a downsloping line and the retest occurs before the medianline set is drawn not after...i rarely trade any other setup anymore. no other setup carries with it the relaxed certainty with such a tight stop...

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it really does stand classic theory on it's head and maybe that's why I am trying to grasp something I haven't yet, but this is very important and I thank you for being patient with me (us) here.
Based on what you said I have to concur that one crucial element is time: timing the point of reversal and hence timing entry.
Here is a simple example of what I am trying to grasp. Please disregard all other factors on this chart. I am just trying to grasp the basic concept of "when all conditions are met in time this is what happens"
Hope I am making sense...

note: I edited the chart to use the anticipated pivot for the set and not the high on the chart.
The first note on the chart is cut off. It should say: "If price trades to the confluence of line and 1.27 in time then reversal should occur here"

all the while keenly aware where the traditional traders will look to play their hand....you can thank my buddy john for my new high speed computer... previously there was no way i could post this fast....

i do not know what else to say....how did price decide to go to larger target????. the same set up triggered!do you see why i rarely trade any other entry anymore?

yes i know the other tools there.. but the relaxed certainty comes from the specific setup and the 90% with tight stop...

I see what you're saying

now you're talking!!!!!!!OK I MUST CONFESS!!! though in all my other trades i set stop at 1/5th.... the high probability of the setup has allowed me to allow myself a tiny bit of slack on this only.. set at 1/4th.

In a way this is a great scalping technique. This setup only required a 4 cent stop!

at the turn, i was scrolling my charts looking for the best entry... the TWM lept off the charts grabbed my hand and pressed the button!




Note from Jim: I finally figured out why this didn't post correctly, and fixed it.