Here's the 4-Point I was discussing in Jim's Thoughts, with my key set. The key set line was the main factor for me. On the S&P cash it hit the line and 'tested' it three times pretty much dead on. No matter how you label this ABCD, it was an ABCD to me at a key line, with 'context'.





Now we sit at a key line, with TICK hitting an extreme, 1-min volume short-term climactic, and so on. It would be something to see if they can't bounce this up here. What a play so far, though, eh?!

Also, as a curiosity, the 1.618 hits near that lower //, just about at Laundry's low move for this leg. Very interesting.


Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal.

Here's one thing to keep in mind here. We are now not only at that TL that M mentioned, but this is also the bottom of that 4-Point CP 'wave 2'. If it trades into that, the wave sequence is nullified. We also have four high cumulative tick readings in a week, that ISEE still hanging over this (although it is getting late for that), and quadruple option expiration. Add in the 'official' new bull market call, and I think this could stop it. I'll let the charts tell me, but don't be too sure this area won't be it. Let the price action be the guide, in case.

I find this strange. I know you are using all sessions here, but I can't draw a set like yours, even using all sessions.
Here is the main set I've been using.

One thing to always watch for is how the other indices are laid out, with respect to the 'wave 2'. I have found, in my experience, that if any of the other majors trade deep into the 'wave 2' ahead of the ones I am focusing on, in this case the S&P, that is a big-time warning that the others will go into the 'wave 2', nullifying that scenario. I learned this the hard way, ignoring this info, figuring the chart I am watching still hasn't violated the 'wave 2', and it is still valid. In almost every case I watched, the others went on to fail. Now, take a look at the Compx, the NDX, and the SOX. They have long ago totally violated the 'wave 2's'. This is a big-time red flag warning to me that we may be headed quite a bit higher.

This is the only thing I have that screams higher, while many things scream lower, but it is a big one, and I am very wary because of it. I wanted to pass that one along. I am still like 99% long-side bias, just looking for long setup after long setup, and I will until proven otherwise, but my point is, when we hit a key area, that's when I am willing to consider short setups/triggers off that, and 'wave 2' setups if they are super-good-looking. I particualrly don't like the 'wave 2' setups because if they don't play out I miss working a good chunk of the potential upside. Hence, unless they really scream at me, I prefer to consider shots off the initial area, and to 'fade' the 'wave 2's' by already having a long position as they complete, unless they are really sweet.

Whether I stay with the short side or look to get back long depends on where the move goes to, and what is there. Like the big pullback we just had, on the 16th-17th, was right to my best, key area for uptrend resumption. I just don't want to hold past that as it starts to trigger up, and so on. Lastly, I start to be more willing on 'wave 2's' if I see a shift in sentiment.

Ok, now I am a bit more confused.
When I use Es #F (2nd chart) the set is more like bbj's even though not exact but when I use ES M9 it certainly looks different.

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

One thing to always watch for is how the other indices are laid out, with respect to the 'wave 2'. I have found, in my experience, that if any of the other majors trade deep into the 'wave 2' ahead of the ones I am focusing on, in this case the S&P, that is a big-time warning that the others will go into the 'wave 2', nullifying that scenario. I learned this the hard way, ignoring this info, figuring the chart I am watching still hasn't violated the 'wave 2', and it is still valid. In almost every case I watched, the others went on to fail. Now, take a look at the Compx, the NDX, and the SOX. They have long ago totally violated the 'wave 2's'. This is a big-time red flag warning to me that we may be headed quite a bit higher.

This is the only thing I have that screams higher, while many things scream lower, but it is a big one, and I am very wary because of it. I wanted to pass that one along. I am still like 99% long-side bias, just looking for long setup after long setup, and I will until proven otherwise, but my point is, when we hit a key area, that's when I am willing to consider short setups/triggers off that, and 'wave 2' setups if they are super-good-looking. I particualrly don't like the 'wave 2' setups because if they don't play out I miss working a good chunk of the potential upside. Hence, unless they really scream at me, I prefer to consider shots off the initial area, and to 'fade' the 'wave 2's' by already having a long position as they complete, unless they are really sweet.

Whether I stay with the short side or look to get back long depends on where the move goes to, and what is there. Like the big pullback we just had, on the 16th-17th, was right to my best, key area for uptrend resumption. I just don't want to hold past that as it starts to trigger up, and so on. Lastly, I start to be more willing on 'wave 2's' if I see a shift in sentiment.

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I see what you're saying. Great point.

Yes, M, my set looks like yours, not as neatly fit as BBJ's. There is some data difference or something. But I find the above sets, as done on QC, quite good like that. My primary set, which is the one you showed before these two here, is my main set that I have been leaning heavily on, with the latter set just a supplement to that.

Now with regards to the Sox or the NDX, what if the scenario is such that this is Wave 2 right here and either forms a double top with Wave 1 or a deep retracement. Wave 1 would have the ABCD and doesn't have the impulsive look. I know these aren't Elliot rules, but it happens.

For fun, add on a .236 retracement off the bottom to the high, for that pullback on the 16th-17th, and you'll see why that short triggered off that 770 area top was a great potential trade to that lower // area, but any significant reaction off that and I wanted to be long-side bias ASAP. Insane area, huh?

crazy trendlines, angles, it's all geometry as roofer et al. used to say

yes, it was an absolute beauty. It fell right in with the 786 of the last move up.

I agree, T, with pretty much everything you've said. I commented a little in my weekend commentary on the unlikelihood this is a 'bull market', given all the things it is doing that have never been seen at the start of a bull market before. The intermarket dynamics are indeed pointing to the possibility of something big happening soon.

I also agree 100% with the potential doomsday scenario. There was a time when I thought all that stuff was 'crackpot' nonsense. Then I started to think maybe some of it might be true. Now I tend to think I just see no way that we won't crash back into the stone age. I try and try, but I just can't see how it can be avoided. I even think it may be engineered, not simply something that happened because of greed gone wild. I never, ever believed I would ever think something like that, but I also never thought I would ever see even 10% of what I have seen so far. Sure doesn't make me happy or hopeful for all of our futures, as you say, as 'citizens of mankind' :-(

Great market concepts, T.