Here's the 4-Point I was discussing in Jim's Thoughts, with my key set. The key set line was the main factor for me. On the S&P cash it hit the line and 'tested' it three times pretty much dead on. No matter how you label this ABCD, it was an ABCD to me at a key line, with 'context'.





Now we sit at a key line, with TICK hitting an extreme, 1-min volume short-term climactic, and so on. It would be something to see if they can't bounce this up here. What a play so far, though, eh?!

Also, as a curiosity, the 1.618 hits near that lower //, just about at Laundry's low move for this leg. Very interesting.


Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal.

4th test of that upsloping trendline. It ought to be broken.

Then we get the swooooosh?

That swoosh should have ocurred already imo. Beautiful ABCD to test the line from below and now to the outside divisionline of the main upsloping set. They are fighting hard not to let this go.

Yes, because it basically breaks the trend of the entire up move off 666, and they know that once they lose that undisputed momentum, they may have a battle on their hands. I can't imagine they can hold it much longer, though...

I could imagine it's gonna flush once the cash market closes...

It's tough, because they don't want to let it go. It won't go down until mental momentum shifts, until sentiment changes, and until they realize that if they don't grab those profits they will soon lose them. Then everyone sells, the shorts become emboldened, and the game goes on. Until this happens, it won't drop. We might get a clue when some good news comes out and they don't gun it up, or if some bad news comes out and they don't ignore it. That's what I look for. We had a shot across the bow for that today, when the Fed mentioned extending another one of its inane programs to auto loans and credit cards or whatever it was, and the market quickly jumped, then petered right out. That 'should' have been worth 100-200 Dow points in about 30 seconds to a minute, but it did nothing with it. That's telling me they are really, really tired. We'll see. Just one clue of many that I try to distill down to come up with scenarios. The charts are still the core, as always. But sentiment has a place in my 'Trading Plan'.

time to bounce here?

will be interesting to see how the INDU reacts to the ABCD here

840 here we come...it's a bull market you know..

what's it gonna be, +500 today?

I agree, T, with pretty much everything you've said. I commented a little in my weekend commentary on the unlikelihood this is a 'bull market', given all the things it is doing that have never been seen at the start of a bull market before. The intermarket dynamics are indeed pointing to the possibility of something big happening soon.

I also agree 100% with the potential doomsday scenario. There was a time when I thought all that stuff was 'crackpot' nonsense. Then I started to think maybe some of it might be true. Now I tend to think I just see no way that we won't crash back into the stone age. I try and try, but I just can't see how it can be avoided. I even think it may be engineered, not simply something that happened because of greed gone wild. I never, ever believed I would ever think something like that, but I also never thought I would ever see even 10% of what I have seen so far. Sure doesn't make me happy or hopeful for all of our futures, as you say, as 'citizens of mankind' :-(

Great market concepts, T.