Here's the 4-Point I was discussing in Jim's Thoughts, with my key set. The key set line was the main factor for me. On the S&P cash it hit the line and 'tested' it three times pretty much dead on. No matter how you label this ABCD, it was an ABCD to me at a key line, with 'context'.





Now we sit at a key line, with TICK hitting an extreme, 1-min volume short-term climactic, and so on. It would be something to see if they can't bounce this up here. What a play so far, though, eh?!

Also, as a curiosity, the 1.618 hits near that lower //, just about at Laundry's low move for this leg. Very interesting.


Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal.

Watch for a bounce and roll, as that would be a big clue that they may not be running it up off here.

yoohoo...riding long,this is awesome.
watching ES@850 for short spot but im trailing my stops 'wide' 'til then.
M, the wave 2 plays are valid but u may get better probabilities on ur side if u put the w2 setup in context with a potential reversal(end of pullback correction) spot in the higher time frames at the start of wave 1. Without a supporting context spot my expectation for w2 to work would only be for a single reaction trust at most.If u get more then great, but my trade management plan would need to be adapted while the trade is still on.I personally don't like to change thing on the fly like that.And that's weak tactic in my plan. Like Jim said in his books, U have to know what move u want to play for ahead of time and then adapt ur management plan according to ur expectations.
As for pattern structures, I think being flexible is best approach but u MUST have a solid trade management plan IMO .That'd take care of the times when the pattern doesn't work out successfully and the cost of a rollover stopout gets minimized. Sometimes the patterns look skewed to the point where they are difficult to recognize, but if they complete at a nice synergy spot i wouldn't mind trading them as 'structureless' if i get a trigger.But again, I would need to know what kind of move i want from that setup and play it for what it's worth.

Quote: " Good judgement comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement"

T

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

Watch for a bounce and roll, as that would be a big clue that they may not be running it up off here.

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Bounces up into an ABCD at a line, and roll city. Just what I suspected. Next place to watch a DB ABCD?

1.272 hit as cash closes. Very interesting. First real sellers to speak of. Like I said, wouldn't it be cool if the 'top' was in with that gap .886 test. But I still have tremendous respect for these crazy buyers, so I will be watching clues and following them.

So, they gun it right up dead off that DT ABCD I mentioned, right to the 1.128 final thrust, and then just setup after setup, starting with a little 'head and shoulders', as they finally ran out of gas. If that isn't the top of this bear rally, I'm going to be quite surprised. Ready, but surprised. This is awesome. Now, this is the kind of runner I just live for.

P.S. Watch this EXP here, in case.

So, it did exactly the same as that other ABCD I pointed out, where it morphed into the DT hybrid, 1.128 C point here, 1.618 D point, and then exploded. I have to admit, this is one of the better follow throughs on a pattern I've seen, as good as the one that led into it. I think today gets rated one of the best trading days for the methodology in a long, long time. Wow. Just my opinion.

34.50 essentially straight down off the key setup at 12:06 on the 3-min, and then 25.00 almost straight up, with a small DT ABCD in there. That's about 60 points of trending movement with essentially no shakeouts. I'm still blown away. Wow. That's the best that could ever be asked for, in my opinion.

Notice the TF was a near perfect 1.128 ABCD with key fibs off every swing point, and a multiple line convergence right at the area. It was as near a 10 on the setup scale as one could get. Look at the 60-minute chart.

The TF is starting to move again more like the old contract. About 3/4 the movement at about half the index value. With the $100 per point compared to $50 on the ES, that's about 50% more $ movement per contract. In the old days it used to be about 2 to 1. Ready to start looking seriously at it again.

well, that's what I noticed yesterday.

I agree, T, with pretty much everything you've said. I commented a little in my weekend commentary on the unlikelihood this is a 'bull market', given all the things it is doing that have never been seen at the start of a bull market before. The intermarket dynamics are indeed pointing to the possibility of something big happening soon.

I also agree 100% with the potential doomsday scenario. There was a time when I thought all that stuff was 'crackpot' nonsense. Then I started to think maybe some of it might be true. Now I tend to think I just see no way that we won't crash back into the stone age. I try and try, but I just can't see how it can be avoided. I even think it may be engineered, not simply something that happened because of greed gone wild. I never, ever believed I would ever think something like that, but I also never thought I would ever see even 10% of what I have seen so far. Sure doesn't make me happy or hopeful for all of our futures, as you say, as 'citizens of mankind' :-(

Great market concepts, T.