Here's the 4-Point I was discussing in Jim's Thoughts, with my key set. The key set line was the main factor for me. On the S&P cash it hit the line and 'tested' it three times pretty much dead on. No matter how you label this ABCD, it was an ABCD to me at a key line, with 'context'.





Now we sit at a key line, with TICK hitting an extreme, 1-min volume short-term climactic, and so on. It would be something to see if they can't bounce this up here. What a play so far, though, eh?!

Also, as a curiosity, the 1.618 hits near that lower //, just about at Laundry's low move for this leg. Very interesting.


Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal.

quote:

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Originally posted by mreiserer

ok, so Wave 2 here or Wave 5 up

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Ah, the eternal question... And I know you are asking it in passing, not needing to know the answer, but for everyone else, remember, we may never know the answer to that and other similar questions until it is after-the-fact, so the solution is play the odds and look for excellent positioning to play those odds. That's what most unsuccessful traders don't try to do, in my opinion. They don't think and strategize that way.

But it sure looks like wave 5 right now.

nobody selling

And that's the big clue. There just aren't any sellers right now at all. Trannies up 10% in a day, on a major index, and no sellers, no profit takers. Copper exploding, treasuries selling, until money starts to move, this can't go down. That may start any second, but my point is, and yours, it hasn't yet. So far, though, I'm hanging with this short side.

I think this is most likely range chopping, but that sure looks like an EXP wave 2 there for the downside. But, they will probably just bounce it up hard when it gets to the range low again. It should accelerate down if it was an EXP there.

yes that's my play

And so far the price behavior/action is completely wrong for that. It should have dropped right down through hard and fast. That doesn't mean it won't play out that way, but the odds of it just dropped quite a bit. On the other nad, it is also a range/ledge that many want to break for the stops now, so it may happen for that reason. The thing is, it mostly likely would then sweep the stops and accelerate upwards after that, instead of do a wave 3 down. Just something to be aware of.

see ya, pulled the plug in time

maybe just a retest

839 next

I agree, T, with pretty much everything you've said. I commented a little in my weekend commentary on the unlikelihood this is a 'bull market', given all the things it is doing that have never been seen at the start of a bull market before. The intermarket dynamics are indeed pointing to the possibility of something big happening soon.

I also agree 100% with the potential doomsday scenario. There was a time when I thought all that stuff was 'crackpot' nonsense. Then I started to think maybe some of it might be true. Now I tend to think I just see no way that we won't crash back into the stone age. I try and try, but I just can't see how it can be avoided. I even think it may be engineered, not simply something that happened because of greed gone wild. I never, ever believed I would ever think something like that, but I also never thought I would ever see even 10% of what I have seen so far. Sure doesn't make me happy or hopeful for all of our futures, as you say, as 'citizens of mankind' :-(

Great market concepts, T.