Here's the 4-Point I was discussing in Jim's Thoughts, with my key set. The key set line was the main factor for me. On the S&P cash it hit the line and 'tested' it three times pretty much dead on. No matter how you label this ABCD, it was an ABCD to me at a key line, with 'context'.





Now we sit at a key line, with TICK hitting an extreme, 1-min volume short-term climactic, and so on. It would be something to see if they can't bounce this up here. What a play so far, though, eh?!

Also, as a curiosity, the 1.618 hits near that lower //, just about at Laundry's low move for this leg. Very interesting.


Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal.

Hmmm, futures are up. Got to wonder if we don't quickly set new highs again off this ABCD. 1.272 to 1.618 area off the pattern puts this back at that upper // and into Carl Futia's 840 area, and it could do it with a nice-looking 3-drives. There is also the obvious natural TL at that 1.618 area. Too bad, though, I have the most awesome key line this dropped right off of today, with multiple topping formations. It would be a fantastic finishing spot. And it may still be, but all those sweet clues that formed are essentially completely negated by this pulling back into an ABCD right into a super-key area, and then exploding up with unbridled fury. And the futures are up, so there isn't a lick of buyers remorse so far.

For this to look good to me short side it would really need to roll over hard in here, and I can't see myself off the long side off that ABCD without some serious prodding. Lots of news and testimony coming up. This is going to be exciting, and it doesn't matter which way it goes, as long as we get days with over 75 points of movement, like today, this is just the kind of times we'll tell stories on the porch to grandchildren, and great grandchildren, decades from now. "Tell us again, Grandpa, about when the ES used to move 75 points in a day like it was nothing. Oh, please, please..."

850 is the more significant area now imo.

big danger is that this trendline is way too obvious

That's what worries me about it, and why they might fall short of it, or overshoot it, to mess with people. An overshoot gives them the best way to sweep both sides, though. Despite a strong long side bias off the ABCD's, I'm still hoping (a different kind of hope than when you hope your wrong-sided play will turn around magically for you) that was the top, for no other reason than I'd find it technically beautiful.

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

The TF is starting to move again more like the old contract. About 3/4 the movement at about half the index value. With the $100 per point compared to $50 on the ES, that's about 50% more $ movement per contract. In the old days it used to be about 2 to 1. Ready to start looking seriously at it again.

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TF outdoing ES almost 2:1 again.

Yep, ready to get back to the TF, I think.

There is no point in starting a new thread since no one's watching/participating (that's not to disrespect you Jim), but I wanted to post this. If there was only one setup I could trade at all times this would be it. Just perfect.
Great wave 2 entry option on tick chart as well.

Yep, that's my primary bread and butter setup, the one I spend almost all my time on, and almost all mentoring time on.

As far as the forum, I don't take it personally. It's just the nature of things. Everyone knows I've spent enough time whining and griping about it myself. There are a few people following along, but mostly they don't want to post. I don't think there are that many traders out there anymore, either. But overall, I think the methodology is quite complex for a lot of people, and most are extremely busy. I know several who really have it down pretty good, and at best once in awhile they read a few posts in here, but they barely have time to do any trading they are so busy. It's just the way it is. I've just learned to accept it. If you think it's frustrating to try to participate and be one of the few, try it from my end, after putting in all the work on the books and website and mentoring program, and having this little bit of interest. So, I just laugh it off, lesson learned, and now when I feel the urge to 'make a contribution' I go to the local soup kitchen and help out there.

To be honest I have always participated in this forum so I can learn and I have made as many posts as I have to challenge and to be corrected or shown another viewpoint.
I am more interested in showing the flaws than the perfect setups, although it's hard to abstain from those.
As far as trading I am starting to realize less is better and only wait for the best. What if this trade today was the only one you took all week and loaded up?
Would have been plenty. The rest of the time is just sitting on watching and that's the tough part.

I agree, T, with pretty much everything you've said. I commented a little in my weekend commentary on the unlikelihood this is a 'bull market', given all the things it is doing that have never been seen at the start of a bull market before. The intermarket dynamics are indeed pointing to the possibility of something big happening soon.

I also agree 100% with the potential doomsday scenario. There was a time when I thought all that stuff was 'crackpot' nonsense. Then I started to think maybe some of it might be true. Now I tend to think I just see no way that we won't crash back into the stone age. I try and try, but I just can't see how it can be avoided. I even think it may be engineered, not simply something that happened because of greed gone wild. I never, ever believed I would ever think something like that, but I also never thought I would ever see even 10% of what I have seen so far. Sure doesn't make me happy or hopeful for all of our futures, as you say, as 'citizens of mankind' :-(

Great market concepts, T.