There's not much to add to Jim's yesterday post. I'll refrain from posting here long term setups which are not based on KT methodology.
PS. This might be a good contrarian indicator of a nearby turn :-) DJIA has just completed an ending diagonal almost to the day at 0.618 time retracement of Oct 2007 - Mar 2009 drop
JI
jimkane
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Yeah, that's nice, jarek. Now we see if it plays out, or not. Time for a decision. Maybe it will try to stay right here until the close, to postpone the decision until the GLOBEX, as it's wont to do lately. As nice as the area is, I don't think it will hold. We'll see. I'll surely respect it if it does play out.
JI
jimkane
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For those that are following along, if I wanted to trade that setup, it's triggered now. I'm staying long side bias, expecting some heat here, and seeing what this does. As I said, eventually it will correct more, but I'm going to lean on support until it breaks. Line to line.
BTW, crude is just sweet today, with that nice selloff, and even another push here off a nice ABCD with a 4PT in the BC leg that completed at around 14:23 PM.
BTW, crude is just sweet today, with that nice selloff, and even another push here off a nice ABCD with a 4PT in the BC leg that completed at around 14:23 PM.
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jimkane
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Now over 10 points off that low, and not one person in here saying they played the support trade... Everyone should recall I mentioned I had an interest in that as soon as the short ended at 'support', and it did it right on cue.
Another spot for some caution for me here, as the RTH winds down. Watching to see what it does.
Another spot for some caution for me here, as the RTH winds down. Watching to see what it does.
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jimkane
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Nice post, jarek, you beat me to the punch with your post, I was writing mine when yours posted. That's a big part of the caution I expressed. You're following along nicely.
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jimkane
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Let me say, though, caution only means I am willing to factor the area in to a potential management plan, i.e. tighten up a stop on some. I'm 'very bullish', though, off this support, until proven otherwise, so I'm inclined in a situation like this to give it enough room to breathe and do its thing.
This time, though, I am going to be more cautious on the next timeframe up when it gets more to the middle of the range areas, as the odds of a failure and collapse to the downside are greater now, in my opinion, than they were the last time. Note that this is setting up like last time, with a bounce to this appx. level, and if it rolls, many will think it will hold and reverse sharply again, and that could trap a lot of people for a downside crush. For now, though, I'm just tracking the price flow and seeing what it does.
This time, though, I am going to be more cautious on the next timeframe up when it gets more to the middle of the range areas, as the odds of a failure and collapse to the downside are greater now, in my opinion, than they were the last time. Note that this is setting up like last time, with a bounce to this appx. level, and if it rolls, many will think it will hold and reverse sharply again, and that could trap a lot of people for a downside crush. For now, though, I'm just tracking the price flow and seeing what it does.
JI
jimkane
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Nice. This is surely a key area. I'm wondering how many are seeing the parallels with the last two times support was hit. Maybe someone can post a 60-min all sessions, so everyone can see what I mean. This is three times now in a row it hit this level and bounced this much. Both other times it rolled back to the low, then went to the range top. The odds don't favor another repeat, as surely everyone sees this. Very curious behavior, huh? And if you look to the left of the first time it did this you can see at least two similar moves off the low of what became the support level. Very interesting. Is this thing toast? Time will tell.
RO
roofer
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i hope all grasped what i did... i did not forcast.... i simply used the tools of this forum across all my traders until there was not a single buy signal left... that is when important reversals occur...AT THAT MOMENT IN TIME!!!!, THERE IS SIMPLY NO GEOMETRY LEFT TO SUPPORT THE MARKET....jim is perfectly correct to be looking for ABCD'S.... I AM TOO..but looking across hundreds of charts, i believe price was at or near this years high at the recent high...i have no big ideas of how important this high was based on theoretical constructs.... just trading the tools....as the machine that grinds.

