Despite having been hammered for posting my sincere feedback re. ATW in the appropriate thread (or may-be, because of ...) I am starting this thread for the benefit of all waanabee traders.
I have no intent of sharing my exact trade setups, however I will share as much as I can - the good, the bad & the ugly, and if someone learn something from this then it won't have been a waste of my time.
I have been a student of the market for over 4 years now. I actually started my education with Investools PhD program (which was a lot of money for not much outcome in my case), trading stocks then options, then started to focus on the SPX (directional Calls/Puts then credit spreads), at some point I discovered the futures / ES in particular and that was a "revelation" ... 1/4pt spread vs 2pt spread for the SPX options, I was sold in no-time.
I purchased Todd Mitchell's system (TradingConcepts), which was a lot less money than Investools but no more outcome in my case, at least it triggered my interest in Fibs (back then, retracements only) and I did a lot of research / backtesting using Fibs - but at the end of the day, the real challenge resides in figuring out which fib level will "hold", and to this day I have to admit I have not solved it.
Anyway, I then spent a lot of time in a couple of "free" trading rooms
learning pure price action, the person that was offering his time teaching PA free for several months later offered a paying program, which I took, but I still couldn't make money live. I took another mentor, recommended on a free forum, and despite he being a nice guy (and why wouldn't he be when students are paying), this also was a failure.
I was about to throw the towel when I found ATW, started with the 101A education, added 3 weeks later the mentorship education, and have been studying / backtesting a lot for now a full year. I reached a point where I can "consistently" make fake-money on sim, however the transition to live trading is a real challenge for me, because of fear I pass on many trade setups and I deviate from my trade management rules.
So, that's the background. I trade CL (Crude Oil "big" contract) which is very liquid, has 1 tick spread throughout the European & US session, and is nicely volatile (day range is on average 250-350 ticks, some days even more - like today : 450 ticks). I find CL to have a lot of momentum, it shows very repetitive "patterns" (at least, for the fib user that I am).
I don't use any indicator, I trade price action using a lot of price projection techniques (best book IMO on this topic is Robert C. Miner "Dynamic Trading").
If I have one advice for new traders, it is look for another way of making a living ... but if you are truly in love with the markets, then I believe it is a must to 1) find an excellent education (this is way more than just reading books, and frankly, there is probably no one-stop education shop) and 2) find a mentor to accelerate your learning curve.
Now that this is out of the way, a brief summary of my week :
Tuesday - tried 1 trade early morning, entry hit no fill, that made me mentally sick for the rest of the day, I passed on 2 setups (both wins), the last setup I tried but my entry wasn't even close to be hit.
Wednesday - 2 setups no-fill, then 1 small winner (got out at 1/2 of my target for pseudo-good reasons - really, lack of discipline), and I passed on the last one (another wouldabe winner :( )
Thursday - passed on 5 setups (4 wins / 1 loss), took 1 small winner (1/2 target again, same lack of discipline), and missed the best setup of the day by being away for 5min
Friday - passed on 1 setup (win), no fill on next 2 setups, then I couldn't focus & called it a day.
Bottom-line - only 2 trades this week, I made ~10% of what I should have made if I had the discipline to follow my plan.
DO
dom993
Rep: 3,560
Posts: 310
Day's summary
CL new system : 1 win (+50-ticks)
I have been looking at the impact of capping the initial stop size to a value smaller than current cap (which is 50-ticks) ... I initially looked at it from a reduced target point of view, as I don't like risking 50-t to make only 25-t ; I then extended it to the full target as well. Looks like impact is pretty similar regardless of target size.
Impact of Initial Stop cap on Target 1 :
Impact of Initial Stop cap on Target 2 :
These chart are a bit misleading, as the impact really varies from month to month, and the chart only reflect the 10-months performance. But I think this is another good way of diversification when trading multiple contracts on this system (several targets, several initial stop cap, and 3 filters all based on price-action but with little to no correlation).
Not sure yet how I am going to use this moving forward.
CL new system : 1 win (+50-ticks)
Click image for original size
I have been looking at the impact of capping the initial stop size to a value smaller than current cap (which is 50-ticks) ... I initially looked at it from a reduced target point of view, as I don't like risking 50-t to make only 25-t ; I then extended it to the full target as well. Looks like impact is pretty similar regardless of target size.
Impact of Initial Stop cap on Target 1 :
Click image for original size
Impact of Initial Stop cap on Target 2 :
Click image for original size
These chart are a bit misleading, as the impact really varies from month to month, and the chart only reflect the 10-months performance. But I think this is another good way of diversification when trading multiple contracts on this system (several targets, several initial stop cap, and 3 filters all based on price-action but with little to no correlation).
Not sure yet how I am going to use this moving forward.
DO
dom993
Rep: 3,560
Posts: 310
Day's summary
CL new system : 1 win (+50-t) / 1 loss (-27-t)
The long/loss is certainly disappointing, and I was certainly tempted to shut the system down after the short/win ... but in the long-run, it was the right decision to let the system take all trades w/o interfering.
CL new system : 1 win (+50-t) / 1 loss (-27-t)
The long/loss is certainly disappointing, and I was certainly tempted to shut the system down after the short/win ... but in the long-run, it was the right decision to let the system take all trades w/o interfering.
Click image for original size
DO
dom993
Rep: 3,560
Posts: 310
Day's summary
CL new system : 1 win (+24-t)
3 setups today, but the 2 longs were both filtered by the "IniStop" filter (based on calculated Initial Stop size). The 1st one, if taken, would be a minor loss (at least from a Tgt2 point of view, Tgt1 being OK), and the 2nd one a very nice full win / no sweat. (even though I am currently only using the "IniStop" filter, I have a model that combines the 3 filters in such a way that trades are taken as long as 2 filters are "go" for a trade, which was the case for both longs).
I was initially planning on adding a 2nd contract w/ 1/2 size target after Labor day (ie., starting today), but I am still looking at various options (I could use a different filter model for this, also a 25-t Tgt1 gives about 73% P&L of 50-t Tgt2 in backtesting, while a 30-t Tgt1 gives about 85% P&L of 50-t Tgt2, with a little more exposure to volatility drops). The choice would have been easy (in favor of the pure 1/2 size target) if it wasn't for the last 4 weeks, on which that very 1/2 size target is losing ~ $300, while the 30-t tgt is a about BE ... this is really just noise in the decision making process, but it shows how one can be influenced by recent results, even though non-significant.
CL new system : 1 win (+24-t)
3 setups today, but the 2 longs were both filtered by the "IniStop" filter (based on calculated Initial Stop size). The 1st one, if taken, would be a minor loss (at least from a Tgt2 point of view, Tgt1 being OK), and the 2nd one a very nice full win / no sweat. (even though I am currently only using the "IniStop" filter, I have a model that combines the 3 filters in such a way that trades are taken as long as 2 filters are "go" for a trade, which was the case for both longs).
I was initially planning on adding a 2nd contract w/ 1/2 size target after Labor day (ie., starting today), but I am still looking at various options (I could use a different filter model for this, also a 25-t Tgt1 gives about 73% P&L of 50-t Tgt2 in backtesting, while a 30-t Tgt1 gives about 85% P&L of 50-t Tgt2, with a little more exposure to volatility drops). The choice would have been easy (in favor of the pure 1/2 size target) if it wasn't for the last 4 weeks, on which that very 1/2 size target is losing ~ $300, while the 30-t tgt is a about BE ... this is really just noise in the decision making process, but it shows how one can be influenced by recent results, even though non-significant.
Click image for original size
DO
dom993
Rep: 3,560
Posts: 310
Day's summary
CL new system : 1 loss (-24-t)
A bit of a disappointing day, 1 setup was filtered by the "IniStop" filter, but a win for the "any-2 filters" model (which I currently don't trade :( ), 2nd setup came 1 tick of the entry level before retesting HoD, and because the entry wasn't touched the system kept the initial stop as is (else, that initial stop would we shrinked quite a bit). And yes, that entry looks stupid right there, but I know it makes money over time.
CL new system : 1 loss (-24-t)
A bit of a disappointing day, 1 setup was filtered by the "IniStop" filter, but a win for the "any-2 filters" model (which I currently don't trade :( ), 2nd setup came 1 tick of the entry level before retesting HoD, and because the entry wasn't touched the system kept the initial stop as is (else, that initial stop would we shrinked quite a bit). And yes, that entry looks stupid right there, but I know it makes money over time.
Click image for original size
DO
dom993
Rep: 3,560
Posts: 310
Day's summary
CL new system : 1 win (+50-t)
This one came very close to being prematurely stopped ... anyway, the system makes today a new equity peak, from last equity peak (Aug.25) the drawdown lasted 10 trading days / 10 trades (-$993).
CL new system : 1 win (+50-t)
This one came very close to being prematurely stopped ... anyway, the system makes today a new equity peak, from last equity peak (Aug.25) the drawdown lasted 10 trading days / 10 trades (-$993).
Click image for original size
DO
dom993
Rep: 3,560
Posts: 310
Day's summary
CL new system : 1 win (+8-t)
Performance summary for the week : 3 win / 1 loss ; net +561 for 1 contract.
The "any 2 filters" model performance for the week would have been 5 win / 3 loss ; net +1000 for 1 contract.
CL new system : 1 win (+8-t)
Performance summary for the week : 3 win / 1 loss ; net +561 for 1 contract.
The "any 2 filters" model performance for the week would have been 5 win / 3 loss ; net +1000 for 1 contract.
Click image for original size
DO
dom993
Rep: 3,560
Posts: 310
Day's performance
CL new system : NO trade today :(
1st setup (long): entry touched no-fill. 2nd one (short): missed by 2-t.
CL new system : NO trade today :(
1st setup (long): entry touched no-fill. 2nd one (short): missed by 2-t.
Click image for original size
DO
dom993
Rep: 3,560
Posts: 310
Day's summary
CL new system : 2 win (+20-t / +22-t)
CL new system : 2 win (+20-t / +22-t)
Click image for original size
