JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
T minus 5 minutes and counting... But we already have some indications from the spot FX market.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Here's to hoping we see that SL and lower // on roofer's chart after.
RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
jim.... that is what i am hoping too....but clearly the geometry holds out a bullish and bearish possibility.... i am going to bed.....
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Good night, roofer. Sleep well and get healed up. I'll hold down the fort here.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
33.75 was it. Straight up over 10 points off that so far. Too cool.
Originally posted by jimkane
Watch the KZ here at 30.50-32.50, although I'm ready right here at 33.75. Big clue time.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I need sleep. I wish I didn't need to sleep so I could follow the market all day and night. Anyway, I'm stuck staying up with all this action (good thing I'm a west coaster), but I'm fading fast. I just noticed I have something in Notepad I was going to work up today, and forgot. I'm so groggy now I'll just do a quick overview. I'll leave it to everyone to do more follow up if they want.
Below is my post from overnight trading on the 9th. I'll do some follow up on what it did. It hit 48.00, and sold off hard, 52 points. It then went back up in an ABCD, hit 48.25 to retest the area, where two TL's (actually two variations on the same concept) hit right into the area, and it dropped hard again, 51 points. That formed the flat ABCD I mentioned elsewhere, which sent it up like a rocket. It didn't care at all about the next level, as the FED ramp just went nuts. But, where did that stop? 78.75. I won't go on after-the-fact and describe the entire grouping, but I mentioned below 80.50 (and see my comment below). Over an 80 point ramp, and it reversed less than 2 points from the single number I mentioned as my level. From there it sold off 65 points at the low.
Now, notice that all of the downward reactions came off an area I posted. Three big sells, and all three off my areas. It would still be impressive to me if it sold ten times and three times my areas were hit and it sold. But all the sells it did, it did off one of my areas. No, not every move is off an area I mention, and many of my areas are ignored (which is the way it is, and should be). But, what I am getting at is, do the tools I use seem to provide an edge? If so, I want to use them, refine them, study them, improve them, and so on.
As an aside, I did post other levels after this (with minor differences), as I mentioned, posted in haste due to the action. They were slightly different. I'll leave it to everyone who wants to do the work, to find that post, and see how I developed the areas here, and the other levels, and look, too, at the widths of the groupings. I just want to mention this so it doesn't look like I followed up on the levels that were hit almost exactly, and ignored the slightly different ones that didn't seem to be hit so exactly.
Understand, when I am looking at higher timeframe work, and the action is volatile, all I need is the general area to go to work from, and from there price action is king. It's fun to show how sometimes they hit almost dead on, but it's not necessary for trading, in my opinion. I'll use an analogy I use with mentor students, and then call it quits.
Let's say you are rabbit hunting (I'm not much into hunting, but I like the analogy), and I am your guide. In front of us stands a big field. Now, if I felt I could tell you within say a ten by ten foot section where that rabbit was, would that be helpful? Most answer an enthusiastic yes. Once we go to that spot, it doesn't matter exactly where that rabbit is within that small square.
You jump up there, scare the daylights out of him, and then when you see which bush he jumps out from under, you blast the daylights out of him. Instead of meandering around the field all day, maybe for nothing, I narrowed it down quite a bit for you, but not the exact bush he was under. You didn't need that. You just needed to get close, so you could go to work and blast him. Think of the areas like that. Areas, not exact spots. Then, time to make the donuts. Time to go to work and earn your pay.
BTW, no actual rabbits were harmed in the telling of this analogy.
Below is my post from overnight trading on the 9th. I'll do some follow up on what it did. It hit 48.00, and sold off hard, 52 points. It then went back up in an ABCD, hit 48.25 to retest the area, where two TL's (actually two variations on the same concept) hit right into the area, and it dropped hard again, 51 points. That formed the flat ABCD I mentioned elsewhere, which sent it up like a rocket. It didn't care at all about the next level, as the FED ramp just went nuts. But, where did that stop? 78.75. I won't go on after-the-fact and describe the entire grouping, but I mentioned below 80.50 (and see my comment below). Over an 80 point ramp, and it reversed less than 2 points from the single number I mentioned as my level. From there it sold off 65 points at the low.
Now, notice that all of the downward reactions came off an area I posted. Three big sells, and all three off my areas. It would still be impressive to me if it sold ten times and three times my areas were hit and it sold. But all the sells it did, it did off one of my areas. No, not every move is off an area I mention, and many of my areas are ignored (which is the way it is, and should be). But, what I am getting at is, do the tools I use seem to provide an edge? If so, I want to use them, refine them, study them, improve them, and so on.
As an aside, I did post other levels after this (with minor differences), as I mentioned, posted in haste due to the action. They were slightly different. I'll leave it to everyone who wants to do the work, to find that post, and see how I developed the areas here, and the other levels, and look, too, at the widths of the groupings. I just want to mention this so it doesn't look like I followed up on the levels that were hit almost exactly, and ignored the slightly different ones that didn't seem to be hit so exactly.
Understand, when I am looking at higher timeframe work, and the action is volatile, all I need is the general area to go to work from, and from there price action is king. It's fun to show how sometimes they hit almost dead on, but it's not necessary for trading, in my opinion. I'll use an analogy I use with mentor students, and then call it quits.
Let's say you are rabbit hunting (I'm not much into hunting, but I like the analogy), and I am your guide. In front of us stands a big field. Now, if I felt I could tell you within say a ten by ten foot section where that rabbit was, would that be helpful? Most answer an enthusiastic yes. Once we go to that spot, it doesn't matter exactly where that rabbit is within that small square.
You jump up there, scare the daylights out of him, and then when you see which bush he jumps out from under, you blast the daylights out of him. Instead of meandering around the field all day, maybe for nothing, I narrowed it down quite a bit for you, but not the exact bush he was under. You didn't need that. You just needed to get close, so you could go to work and blast him. Think of the areas like that. Areas, not exact spots. Then, time to make the donuts. Time to go to work and earn your pay.
BTW, no actual rabbits were harmed in the telling of this analogy.
Posted-08/09/2011 : 03:12:27
Originally posted by jimkane
I've got a minor level at 46-48.25, a half-way decent level at say 58.25-61.25, and then the big .382 at 1180.50...
RA
rat89
Rep: 0
Posts: 7,015
that is a beauty
Originally posted by roofer
this is classic stuff.... i do not know what the out come will be.... all i knew at the close was that being short overnite was low probability
Click image for original size
