JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
T minus 5 minutes and counting... But we already have some indications from the spot FX market.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
At some point it just seems like they'd have to hit this hard to the downside. Maybe not, but it sure seems like they'd have to. I'm very wary in here. Very wary. Let it ride is the mantra, but ride with extreme caution...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I keep repeating out loud 'I've never seen anything like this, I've never seen anything like this...', but I have. 2008 was exactly like this. I wonder if that says anything for our immediate future?
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Key .382 hit. Not that anything can stop this monster freight train rocket ship. But, I'm watching it.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Wow, a couple of sellers. Really? I can't believe it. It actually has checked back more than a few ticks? Wow.
Now, one may think if I'm long-side bias (strongly), I'd be ecstatic that it keeps rising and rising. Not so. As I've said before many times, I like a balanced market. Sure, I love sellers, but only because the market is not balanced, it's only 'up' on manipulation. Sellers bring balance. I'm not saying that I don't recognize that bull markets go up more than down, or that bear markets don't go down more than up, I'm saying they can do it with balance, or without balance.
A move, let's say an up move for this example, can go up without any smaller pullback waves in the move, or it can go up balanced, with smaller pullback waves, and a few bigger pullback waves, hopefully ABCD's. This balances the move, makes it more sustainable and less prone to wild volatility, and makes it much more tradeable, I feel. Manipulation moves can frequently be 'unbalanced'. Now, today's move, intraday, has been fantastically balanced, with what I think were incredibly tradeable moves. But if one jumps up in timeframe, it is very unbalanced, in my opinion.
Hence, I care less about more potential profits in a single trade than I care about tradeability over a time period. Ah, it is what it is, and we can only trade what is, but that doesn't keep me from being frustrated at times by the manipulated madness this market has become. Just some talking out loud...
Now, one may think if I'm long-side bias (strongly), I'd be ecstatic that it keeps rising and rising. Not so. As I've said before many times, I like a balanced market. Sure, I love sellers, but only because the market is not balanced, it's only 'up' on manipulation. Sellers bring balance. I'm not saying that I don't recognize that bull markets go up more than down, or that bear markets don't go down more than up, I'm saying they can do it with balance, or without balance.
A move, let's say an up move for this example, can go up without any smaller pullback waves in the move, or it can go up balanced, with smaller pullback waves, and a few bigger pullback waves, hopefully ABCD's. This balances the move, makes it more sustainable and less prone to wild volatility, and makes it much more tradeable, I feel. Manipulation moves can frequently be 'unbalanced'. Now, today's move, intraday, has been fantastically balanced, with what I think were incredibly tradeable moves. But if one jumps up in timeframe, it is very unbalanced, in my opinion.
Hence, I care less about more potential profits in a single trade than I care about tradeability over a time period. Ah, it is what it is, and we can only trade what is, but that doesn't keep me from being frustrated at times by the manipulated madness this market has become. Just some talking out loud...
TX
tx_ches
Rep: -10
Posts: 514
And about the same for the 1.618 for Y late swing leg down.
Originally posted by rat89
turned just 8 cents shy of the 1.27.....can pullback to the kz put it up into the meeting of both lines?
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Yep, just about 20 points down, but they didn't 'profit take' until the last almost 15 minutes of cash trading, and the 15 minutes after cash. Still, although it seemed necessary, it looked like they'd never do it. What a market.
Originally posted by jimkane
At some point it just seems like they'd have to hit this hard to the downside. Maybe not, but it sure seems like they'd have to. I'm very wary in here. Very wary. Let it ride is the mantra, but ride with extreme caution...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, so let's say we get a monster rally now. I'm not saying it will happen, only that as a premise let's say it does. Where am I looking? Let me add these are rough areas now, and when I do more work tonight I will be able to refine them a bit, as well as if price moves up and gives me some additional swings to work with.
1201-06 (ABCD)
1267
1280 (this may be part of the previous area, as 13 points or more may not be that wide for what is at least a daily timeframe)
1330-1343
So, the first two are center of the areas, and as mentioned in the third one, I'm not sure yet if that is part of the second one, or not. The lines are surprisingly unclear with respect to the Fibs right now. Perhaps as I do more work later... The last level, that one covers essentially the entire range, not the center. The .886 comes in around 1323, so is that part of it, too? Hard to say right now.
I'd be pleased if this ran to the 1267 area (which, as I said, may range up to 1280), and formed the short of the century, amidst the almost unimaginable bullish talk we'd have by that time. We'll see. The way this thing swings, we may be at new lows tomorrow...
1201-06 (ABCD)
1267
1280 (this may be part of the previous area, as 13 points or more may not be that wide for what is at least a daily timeframe)
1330-1343
So, the first two are center of the areas, and as mentioned in the third one, I'm not sure yet if that is part of the second one, or not. The lines are surprisingly unclear with respect to the Fibs right now. Perhaps as I do more work later... The last level, that one covers essentially the entire range, not the center. The .886 comes in around 1323, so is that part of it, too? Hard to say right now.
I'd be pleased if this ran to the 1267 area (which, as I said, may range up to 1280), and formed the short of the century, amidst the almost unimaginable bullish talk we'd have by that time. We'll see. The way this thing swings, we may be at new lows tomorrow...

