Here is the update of some of the long term charts I was presenting here in the last months.

After dozen or so of unsuccessful attempts to overcome the upper ML DJIA has moved decisively into the direction of the main ML. However it didn't reach it and is now hovering around the division line:




Copper shows no respect at all to its long term natural set moving through its lines back and forth:




Crude is still hovering around the ML of its long term Schiff set what in my opinion looks more and more like just a pause in its long term upward march:




10Y yield is again approaching the potential neckline of its long term inverse head and shoulder pattern. If the rise doesn't stop here we may see much higher rates pretty soon:

And what does it say if it just blasts up and over right now, with almost no checkback at all???

great play by play action Jim...

Okay, really important action here. After this long see-saw in this area, it breaks to the upside. Is this the start of a big move up and over? Or a 3-4-5 ending sequence deep into the key lines? Let's see if this is a stop run, or a real move.

Up, up, and away, in my beautiful, my beautiful balloon.

Today's RTH HOD now only two points and change from yesterday's RTH HOD and three ticks from the close. In other words, it made it all the GLOBEX gap down back today. And all off a .382 ABCD at a key line. Pretty straightforward methodology application in my opinion.

Now, my 'context' bias is still up on the higher timeframe. It has to prove it to me that it's changed. It may well, and it may well do that tonight in GLOBEX or tomorrow if it tanks again. This ABCD should run it to new highs. But this is the first thrust off that ABCD, strong and impulsive, right to a typical first thrust area. So, it would be not only normal, but desirable, for it to check back strongly in here. If it does, all the bears will say it's 'confirming'. I'll be looking for another long entry on the shorter timeframes (on the longer timeframes plays should already be in place, and a management plan likely riding things out).

Eventually this will drop, and perhaps take out that 666 low. But it hasn't reached a level where a downtrend is clear yet. All this means is I am not looking at longer-term shorts yet. Can I try to play intraday short down to the next area if this starts to pull back in a 'W2' looking move here? You bet I can. But only shorter-term, back to support, then back to looking at the long side if a reaction develops off support. If it crashes through, I can ride the existing short. Same mantra I have been saying over and over and over.

Originally posted by jimkane

I thought you were gone until next week?

I'm gone, but have some chances to post :-)

Originally posted by jimkane

... it would be not only normal, but desirable, for it to check back strongly in here...

This is why:

Nice chart, jarek. And yes, that, indeed, is why I am watching this area very closely. If that bullish ABCD is not going to play out, this area may send it down. If it is, this could start a 'W2'. It's all about the trading, not the predicting. At various areas can I put together a reasonable trading premise, and will I then take advantage of the technical factors the methodology shows me for my management aspect. That's the name of the game from my standpoint. It's all about the trades and their management, not in talking about what is going to happen or where things are going.

Moving up nicely in GLOBEX, that ABCD still exerting its influence. Now at new highs for the move up, taking out yesterday's high (the C point) handily. Five points now from a new high for the move off that big low on Feb 5. This latest ABCD may just push it up into a 3-4-5 and done, or it may be just one of many corrections to head this to a new high for the entire 'bull'. Regardless, the action is clear, and so far, still wonderfully bullish every step of the way. We'll see going forward if that changes.

I've had a few people ask me about the possible ABCD in the CD leg of the ABCD for today that I liked quite a bit and others were very concerned about. Jim's 'deal breaker' rule about an ABCD in the CD leg of a zig-zag. There were two reasons I wasn't very concerned here.

First, the area of interest was almost at the 1.618 price projection, so it couldn't be an ABCD. As I have said many times, the 1.272 is my 'line in the sand' to separate an ABCD from a 'W3'. Even if the count doesn't follow from there, with a 'W4' and 'W5' or whatever, the intial structure stops being an ABCD for me once the 1.272 is crossed. At 1.272 it could be either. So, this was more like a CD leg that was a 1-2-3 and didn't have a W4-5 part to it, or it has a failed W5. I don't know, and I don't really care about counting that. So, for that reason (the second leg was too long for an ABCD), I wasn't too worried about the structure.

The second key reason I wasn't too worried about the rule is that this push up happened during GLOBEX, and although it surely was data worth looking at, it didn't appear on any of the cash charts. Hence, for most people and most setups, there wasn't a three-legged structure to that CD leg. The stock and index charts simply didn't have this issue to even consider.

So, given how much I liked this area (key .382, ABCD, dead on super-key set line, strong 'context' for upside off the bigger pattern, etc.) and what I mentioned above, I thought this setup was a gift from the trading gods.

The previous setup did close to nothing to stop the rise. Now we can see some reaction off another EXP ABCD:



Jim - are you not concerned that the potential first push off this big ABCD at .382 went so far up?

Nope, it just slept for the rest of the session. It will be fun to watch Sunday night in GLOBEX with this trading in the upper end of the recent range. Will it be 24 out of 26 up sessions?