Broader indexes like IWM shown by Roofer and MID below should show us the way in the coming days:



They were usually first to advance in the recent months and we'll see soon if this is the case this time as well

I'm not sure if trying to analyze such a market makes any sense, but the fact is that the recent move down started off a small bearish ABCD:



... and since the green ML has not been met yet, we could expect that it would play out successfully

The other scenario is that it goes back to test the upper //.
It sorta looks like a sliding // above the green ML could be placed at the swing lows.

Originally posted by jarek
... and since the green ML has not been met yet, we could expect that it would play out successfully

That's a good observation, tx_ches, as well as your previous one about the extension of that SL on Al's chart.

Originally posted by tx_ches

The other scenario is that it goes back to test the upper //...

Roofer's The Trade setup doesn't have place for a test of the upper ML. Should go straight to the green ML...

Not to confuse things more here, but although jarek has called them 'Kane waves', they are not unrelated to Elliott wave entirely. They are my version of derived 'practical Elliott', if you will. The concept for them comes directly from Elliott, I just adapted it for what I see in the 'real' world. I'd like to say 'hope that helps', but it probably confuses things more... Still, it's important to know what I did came from Elliott and got blended with a big dose of price action that I observed in the practical world of actual trading to come up with my view.

Originally posted by tx_ches

Thanks. I was trying to read them as Elliott waves and it wasn't making sense.

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by tx_ches

Jarek, what do the 1 and 2 labels mean?

They mean Waves 1 and 2 of the move off Kane ABCD. These are Kane Waves and not Elliott Waves

Notice how the ES is starting to bounce off the obvious 15-min TL starting with that 3:30 AM low. I'm not saying it will necessarily sustain, only that it is worth noting in the assessment.

We could extend this TL to the Friday low:



It all starts to resemble a rising wedge

Maybe this classic bearish 4PT could help to get below this rising TL:

Watching gold (basis futures) at .382 and line here, on say a 5 or 15-min. This may tell me a little.

Good to know. Thanks.

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by tx_ches

The other scenario is that it goes back to test the upper //...

Roofer's The Trade setup doesn't have place for a test of the upper ML. Should go straight to the green ML...

Yeah, that 1338 rings a bell, but I confirmed the high by various sources and feel it is correct. I even checked several other contracts, but couldn't find that 1338. I've seen it before, though...