Okay, let's crank up another great week in here. The market action should be awesome again, I suspect.

60.50. Ride that tiger!

i felt i had no edge in the indexes so i exited and kept my derivative entry from retest this morning... in the after market panic they let me out at the line... more and more i find the percentage moves much more worth my time and energy in volatility....

I am not going to comment that this is a bearish ABCD into the bearish H&S area, simply because, although this may play out to a 'T', I just can't see it. I'm not saying it won't happen, only that right now I can't imagine I'd be willing to short it on a usual trigger. All I'm thinking is 'blue sky' new highs.

Now, maybe that will make me a sucker. Maybe that is what they want it to look like. Get them suckers to jump in and then crush them. So, what I'm trying to point out is, I would need to see a change of character, and/or a nice reaction and then a second entry opportunity before I'd be willing to short this rocket ship.

I may find what I need to see in a few seconds flat, but I will need that before I'd consider a short. Otherwise I'm thinking 'management mode', probably that triggers a final out as they bring it in in the overnight, and then see what develops. Perhaps just another low in the AM and get on board, day after day after frickin' day. Boring, but potentially amazingly lucrative.

I'm going to post this just for grins. I don't do any 'predicting', and it's a fine line between my posting areas and 'predicting'. When I post an area I'm saying 'If it gets here, and it may well not, then I may take some action.' Predicting says 'The market is going here.' This is a very important concept for this methodology, and it's not just semantics.

Now, with that being said, I am doing some new work, and it is quite fascinating. Like all my techniques, it is about probability. Each outcome has some probability of happening, and I search for perceived edges for trading purposes. So, I am looking at CMG. I have a price and time factor coming together for April 16th at the price level of 366-367. It may mean nothing. But it hit the last time factor using this technique right to the day and price essentially exactly.

That may have truly been a coincidence. Maybe not. Now, will it hit the next cycle of this same concept? Who knows. But I wanted to post it in case it did happen again nearly exactly because it would be cool to have it on record. And if I remember and it doesn't hit, I'll make a post saying it didn't happen, not even close, oh, well. We shall see.

As an aside, I have another, later, secondary time factor at the same price level that hits on May 10th, just in case the momentum slows a bit. I wanted to get that one on the record, too. Just playing around with some new stuff that has been very promising so far.

Big ES pop. 61.50 so far. Seems like it will be fully into the second area any time now. Looking more and more like 'frenzy mode'.

Anyway, my next levels on the higher timeframe are the 70's and 80's, and a really key price flow line hits, depending on time, in the low 90's let's say. So, depending on how this unfolds, those will be my areas to watch. If it hits the new high (or if I get motivated) I may post them more precisely.

62.75. Right at the key line, and into the second area. If they are planning to bring it in at all, this is where I'd expect it from. They have done a great job at making it look like nothing in heaven or on earth can stop it now. That may mean it will be coming in. But, although it makes sense to bring it in a little and get themselves better prices before they gun it up again, they may not.

63.75 hit with a mini stop run look to it. 'Deep in the heart of Texas' now. Line fake out, right to the meat of that second area. We shall see if they will shoot for new highs as I suspect, or bring it in for better prices. Although there are technical factors in here, and I'd love nothing more than for this to be the 'bull' market top, I just can't get my head around any downside right now. But, I'll be watching the behavior anyway, in case.

Originally posted by jimkane

...I'm watching right in here in the ES (it's an awesome spot), and overhead at say 57.00-58.75. That would form a picture perfect H&S, then it's set up for some nice down. I am also watching around that .886 at say 63.50-64.00, but if it gets that high I think the battle would be on for a new high. There is a sweet line there, but I'm not sure what they'll do that high up.

I'd love to think this is the start of something...

C'mon, baby, get legs. They'll probably goose it right up on the European open, like always.

I was going to ask you, roofer, if you caught that gold move, and I decided to look back again at your posts, and I see you caught it via the GDX, and the oil move, too. Nice. Wait a minute, I just realized, what's the point of this post? Hmmm, I guess there is none? At least it will up my post count by one.