Okay, I'll start it off.

I really wish it had one more push left in it... I want to short this sooooooooo bad.

Ya gotta take what they give you...

the q's waited all day for the others to catch up

My ideal scenario for gold is a drop to just under 900, with a bounce in the 1100's on the way. The bounce may be nearly 300, but the best bounce, technically, for me, would be to 1300. That can happen with a drop to the 1000 area, then up 300 to 1300, then down to just under 900 to finish. Or, it could drop to the low 1100's, then up to 1300, then down to just under 900. Anyway, these are my ideal scenarios.

Reality may be totally different. Maybe the call just about every last person I have heard or read has made, 1200-1250 area, will be it, and the next monster leg of the gold bull will reassert itself, heading us to $5,000. Who knows. But I'd like to see $900, where I'd be thinking that's a serious spot for long-term holding.

BTW, the .618 of the entire bull, by my data, is at 891, in a monster cluster of Fib work, a lot of it proprietary stuff.

thanks jim for the numbers

i have one request... could you have that all happen by the 4th to cause total dislocation across the markets?

It's all right there in gold, just under 900... Oh, please, oh, please...

If I could, you know I would...

Originally posted by roofer

i have one request... could you have that all happen by the 4th to cause total dislocation across the markets?

amazing, wasn't it?

Originally posted by roofer

the q's waited all day for the others to catch up

So, I think being positioned in puts now is not a bad idea. Maybe they keep running it up, maybe the puts are a stop out on the open tomorrow. Maybe. This is, of course, for a possible new entry spot. Longer-term puts would already be on, and held through this puny little weak bounce here, awaiting the resumption of 'W3'. But, maybe none of that is to be. So be it.

I'm just saying, if this is going to resume in here, this area, or one more push to really test it hard, that's all it should do, if the hard drop scenario is going to unfold. Maybe it is going to bounce a lot higher, way back into that 'W2' action, and then drop. A lot of things 'may be'. I just look at the areas, assess the relative odds, and decide on where it may be worth taking shots. This level, or the next one, bounded by around 1610, should be it. It could head to a key line and area at the next level up from there, but if it is truly weak, this is it.

And maybe all those blogs that say new 'bulls#%&' market highs are now coming, or a retest near the highs, maybe they are right. All this is what makes this the game that it is. All those opinions. For me, I think all one needs is a half-way decent opinion, combined with extraordinary management skills, among many other skills. One can only get so good at scenarios...

TLT update from previous... after taking half off on thursday morning as shown, the close on thursday left me with the same quandry we often get using the tools of this forum... price had thrust down, then done an abcd to line.. classic sell signal.. but given that our longer term charts suggest a larger low in bonds, the bullish scenario would have price completing abcd with equal legs with abcd as middle leg... so i marked an equal leg and placed stop twenty cents below... so far so good .. but time will tell...