Okay, I'll start it off.

Here's the updated S&P500 weekly index chart. The curious thing is the number of people I have heard saying we are (and have been) in a bear market: zero. Doesn't that red flag anyone? The fact that it's not even on the table as a possibility? Look at the Asian markets (look at China!, try FXI), look at Brazil (try EWZ), look at Russia (try RSX). And a bear market for us is off the table???






Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal

To round out the BRIC's, look at India, try EPI, down over 46% from its recent high. Nah, no way could we be in a bear market. I have a brilliant idea, let's wait until we are down over 20% to officially announce we are in a bear market. Maybe we could even give it a few days after that to be sure, and it may be in plunge mode, so it will be down 30% when we announce it is 'official'. Then people can sell or short it then, right? But, that's the way it will go, it always seems to...

Originally posted by jimkane

Here's the updated S&P500 weekly index chart. The curious thing is the number of people I have heard saying we are (and have been) in a bear market: zero. Doesn't that red flag anyone? The fact that it's not even on the table as a possibility? Look at the Asian markets (look at China!, try FXI), look at Brazil (try EWZ), look at Russia (try RSX). And a bear market for us is off the table???...

Amazing how the ES weakened right off the bounce, right at the first area.

Now, here's my most brilliant observation of the day. Everyone, and I mean everyone I 'follow' has been calling for 1550. We're there. Support seems obvious. But these people I follow, they are rarely if ever correct. That's why I follow them. So, what will happen here? I suspect we will bounce, that will set the trap, then as they all call for new 'bull' market highs, it rolls and destroys them. That's my number one scenario. My number two scenario is that it just keeps dropping, as they all call over and over that it's a buy, a 'buy of the century'. How many times have I heard that one? I can't count. Anyone get the impression I like to blend sentiment (my own versions of it especially) in the with technicals?

And yes, I saw that low as a 'dabbling' shot for the long side, very short-term, to see if anything develops. If not, a quick bail out would be in order. The main risk? Not taking another short shot in here, and the potential to miss that, if it really starts dropping. Decisions have to be made. Commitment to something is required in this game.

If this gets going at all (and that's a big if) I'm looking at 73.50-78.25 area. There are multiple layers on the way there, of which 64-66 is a tough one, followed by key TL's at 70-71. If it can even rise above this 62.75... I'm thinking it is looking like a short here... It must be how they are trying to make it look? Could it still be this weak?

A little update for the pound.

That key area of say 73.50-about 76 (extending up into 78.25) is just a monster magnet, a siren on the rocks, calling to this... Come to me... Come to me...

DB

There it is! There it goes! C'mon, baby, get legs. Don't fail here at this super-key tough spot...

TLT update from previous... after taking half off on thursday morning as shown, the close on thursday left me with the same quandry we often get using the tools of this forum... price had thrust down, then done an abcd to line.. classic sell signal.. but given that our longer term charts suggest a larger low in bonds, the bullish scenario would have price completing abcd with equal legs with abcd as middle leg... so i marked an equal leg and placed stop twenty cents below... so far so good .. but time will tell...