Does anyone really make money trading futures?

Does anyone really make money trading futures?

I am just wondering.

I know I don't. I have tried all the indicators and the chat room gurus, and none of them make money.

I have a suspicion that a lot of the chat rooms for emini trading are just for hobbyists and market enthusiasts and not for serious traders trying to make a business out of trading.

For any new traders out there please be very cautious of paying anyone to mentor you or signing up for training or a chat room. From what I have seen the only people making money in these deals is the mentor, the chat room owner or the author of the training manual.

I would love to hear from you if you are a successful trader making 20% off your account or better over the past year. I know only 5 to 10 percent of traders are supposed to be successful, but I am beginning to think that zero percent of traders are successful over the long haul. Certainly anyone can have a streak of luck and rack up a few good months where they dramatically increase their account size, but these people are normally big risk takers and eventually they blow out their accounts by taking the exact same risks that help double their accounts in the first place.

Thanks in advance for any response.

Jim,

A couple of things:

The quants and random walkers are saying that the markets are not predictable. This is the primary point. Even such people as Andrew Lo do not dispute it. If there are statistical aberrations or deviations from perfect randomness, how does this help you? It doesn't. Lo and his group (who you cited previously as supporting your "non" randomness) stated that is it not possible to exploit the non random aberrations. (almost a direct quote)

Secondly, if you consider the random walk theory to be alchemy, why are you so adamant about arguing? I personally do not waste my time arguing with flat-earthers or conspiracy theorists or other such ideas.

m

m, I'm debating for one reason. This is a trading forum. It is for people who are trying to make it as traders, based on technical methodologies. Some of us try to help others with that process, and to help weed out the charlatans. You constantly show up trying to tell all the struggling people it's futile. Andrew Lo, you said, proves this. Why bother to even try to trade, one will only lose it all, guaranteed. So, according to you, we might as well fold this forum, we are doing everyone a disservice. Okay, you stated your point multiple times, all the newbies have heard it, they have been able to evaluate the usefulness of your opinion. Repeating the same thing over and over as time goes on just doesn't seem to be adding to the forum. In fact, I think it may be detracting from the purpose of the forum. You seem to be on a mission to have small retail traders stop trading, or convince them that they will give it all back, even if they have been successful for over forty years. It all just seems not what this forum was created for.

The title of this thread is "Does anyone really make money trading futures." The answer is no.

You can't say that someone has been successful for forty years without providing proof. Otherwise it's only hearsay which doesn't mean anything as it is unsubstantiated.

Yes, I've made my point multiple times. But so have you and others. I recall seeing, just a few weeks ago, several emails from you guys about your daily trading results, trying to "disprove" the random walk stuff I had brought up.

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Originally posted by jimkane

m, Okay, you stated your point multiple times, all the newbies have heard it, they have been able to evaluate the usefulness of your opinion. Repeating the same thing over and over as time goes on just doesn't seem to be adding to the forum. In fact, I think it may be detracting from the purpose of the forum. You seem to be on a mission to have small retail traders stop trading, or convince them that they will give it all back, even if they have been successful for over forty years. It all just seems not what this forum was created for.

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M , clearly your answer is a no....what I am hearing from others its a yes... In my own case its a yes...how do you disprove everyones elses results ? even over the years...you either believe it or you dont...it is clear you dont...end of story...move on...

There is something manic in your wanting to prove that the no holds true for everyone...IMHO. In other words you struggle to see when to get out of a trade...persistent fusion to the object only leads to more frustration....seperate now if you dare...

Best
john

As I explained before, one can't prove anything with examples, no matter how many. If one shows 40 years of consistent results, with audited statements, it is not 'proof'. It is something that may have a one in a million chance of being random. So, it is 'unprovable'. But to me, the preponderance of the evidence is that just like pro atheletes, some small percentage who do a lot of hard work, maybe 5-10 years minimum, can consistently beat the market. And one thing is for sure, for those who m says are just 'lucky' to get a 10-20 year streak going, it is easy to never, ever give that back by putting a maximum drawdown stop in, and then quitting. So, even if it was 'luck', they will still keep most of that money. Don Miller just talked about doing that himself, putting in a maximum drawdown stop, hence keeping a good chunk of the over $2 million he has made in just over a year. Real money, with supporting evidence. And no, he doesn't sell any products.

The point is, there is no way to mathematically prove one can make money, no matter how many trades or years they do it. But the preponderance of the evidence suggests to me it can be done, and I want to pursue that. It seems everyone else here but you wants to pursue that. We keep making the point because this is a forum for those that want to do the same. We feel we have seen evidence in our personal lives that says it is doable. This is a forum for discussing those various ways.

It comes down to what you just said. You are making a big, bold claim when you say no one makes money trading futres. Big, bold claims require big, bold proof. First I ask you to clearly define your claim. No one makes money? How about PT? He makes money. He is net positive by a long shot over his entire career. Now, are you saying he is outright lying? Or are you saying he has made money, net overall, but will not keep it? If he has a lifetime maximum drawdown and he retires, how will he give it all back? He will make money in the end, it is already certain if he has a lifetime stop he will end up making money. Same with Don Miller. You are refuting that? With what manner of logic and evidence? Argue they made money and retired with that money by pure luck, but to say no one walks away with money trading futures simply can't be supported with evidence. If it can, lay it on us. I can't imagine what 'proof', and 'proof' is a susbtantial burden, you have to 'prove' PT isn't up right now over his career.

Honestly, this just doesn't seem to be benefitting anyone. And I'm just as guilty as anyone, because I keep trying...

"No" does hold true for everyone.

How do I disprove people's "yes" results? Well, for starters give me the results. I don't have them in front of me.

Anyone can make the claim that they are a successful trader. But why is it no one ever provides their actual lifetime trading record?

I want newbies and beginning traders to be aware of what they're getting into. There's too many other people providing fantasy stories about trading.

quote:

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Originally posted by JBWTrader

M , clearly your answer is a no....what I am hearing from others its a yes... In my own case its a yes...how do you disprove everyones elses results ? even over the years...you either believe it or you dont...it is clear you dont...end of story...move on...

There is something manic in your wanting to prove that the no holds true for everyone...IMHO. In other words you struggle to see when to get out of a trade...persistent fusion to the object only leads to more frustration....seperate now if you dare...

Best
john

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I would be impressed if someone would show me 40 or 20 years of audited statements that show a successful trading career. I have never seen anyone capable of providing such a thing.

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Originally posted by jimkane

If one shows 40 years of consistent results, with audited statements, it is not 'proof'. It is something that may have a one in a million chance of being random.

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As JWBtrader posted, you've made your point thoroughly mmartinez. My question then is, "Why are you here?"

Respectfully, MM

How about all the audited one-man hedge funds (I once heard there were 14,000 of them, 'hedgies') that do provide the statements. Many of these are not inside guys, they are just regular guys. A guy I know started a hedge fund after trading his own account. I know several who have done that. All these guys didn't really make money those years? You're saying not one living person ever traded and then quit ahead? None?

Okay, here's what I ask. Then I'm done because this is wasting valuable time. I want to know, in advance, what you will say if statements are produced. Will you admit that person is making money? Straight up, say yes, this person is making money right now? Will you then follow that up with 'but they will lose it all eventually'? Or will you say the statements are fake, and the auditing company is in on it? Or will you say the person only has statements for 5 or 10 years, and play that down like that demonstrates nothing? If statements are produced for say ten consistent years of profitable trading, what will you say? You tell me that, and then we'll see if there is any point to providing those statements.

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

And one thing is for sure, for those who m says are just 'lucky' to get a 10-20 year streak going, it is easy to never, ever give that back by putting a maximum drawdown stop in, and then quitting.

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Actually the best I've seen is about three-four years of trading with a positive P/L to show for it (before giving it all back.) So, if someone were to show 20 years, I would say there's a good chance it's not "luck."

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The point is, there is no way to mathematically prove one can make money, no matter how many trades or years they do it.

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Run your trading method through a large number of iterations. This shows whether you can make money or not.

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But the preponderance of the evidence suggests to me it can be done, and I want to pursue that. It seems everyone else here but you wants to pursue that.

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I would love it if it were possible. I would be trading myself. But you shouldn't "pursue" something just because you want to believe it's true.

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Honestly, this just doesn't seem to be benefitting anyone.

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I disagree. It will make some people rethink and that's a good thing if it makes them reconsider before they jump in and throw their money away.

I consistently profit from futures/futures options, but it took me a long time to figure out the best way for me to do so.

While a set of trading rules is very important, I have found that it is just as, maybe even MORE important, to develop "trading callouses" from getting your butt handed to you repeatedly along the way.

Here's the thing: Any set of rules will only work until they don't. It is normal human psychology that there will come a time (again and again) where you deviate from the rules because A) you have had a string of losses, B) you have had a string of wins and now you have a loss and can't believe you're really supposed to "lose this one," C) you get greedy, D) you get scared for whatever reason, or E) any one of a thousand other things that will cause you to screw up.

I had ups and downs for many years until I thought I had it figured out and had a couple of years of really solid profits. I had my own private island picked out :) (not really, but I did have a condo in mind O/N an island). Then came the financial crisis of 2008 and I learned that while I had a generally good strategy, because times were good I had not developed an appropriate risk control system.

Hundreds of thousands of dollars later... (and that didn't take long at all!) I learned the hard way that my strategy was woefully inadequate when the unexpected happened. It took me a while to brush myself off, but eventually I did.

Since sometime in 2009 my cumulative returns are somewhere around 450%. Over the past 9 years I've found that proper risk control continues to be where I tend to fall short, so I've had some choppiness during this time. About two years ago I tightened things up some more to try to make for a smoother equity curve... this mean that, theoretically, my losing months should NOT be as large as in the past, but my winning months will also not be as large as they were in the past.

That's okay though -- even my cumulative success over the past 9-10 years, when averaged out by month, comes to < 2% a month. I suspect that 2% a month, long term, is about where I'll stay, but the ride should just be smoother along the way.

A return like that may or may not be enough for a particular person--it is for me--but keep in mind if you want to shoot for the stars there's a really good chance you're going to eventually crash land back on earth. It really does come down to being adequately capitalized and having a reasonable return be "enough" for you. By all means, trade even with a small account, because you need that experience to get to the point where you'll know what you're doing when you have the larger account. Just don't expect to turn a tiny account into a massive one along the way or you will probably be disappointed.

-PDG