Does anyone really make money trading futures?
Does anyone really make money trading futures?
I am just wondering.
I know I don't. I have tried all the indicators and the chat room gurus, and none of them make money.
I have a suspicion that a lot of the chat rooms for emini trading are just for hobbyists and market enthusiasts and not for serious traders trying to make a business out of trading.
For any new traders out there please be very cautious of paying anyone to mentor you or signing up for training or a chat room. From what I have seen the only people making money in these deals is the mentor, the chat room owner or the author of the training manual.
I would love to hear from you if you are a successful trader making 20% off your account or better over the past year. I know only 5 to 10 percent of traders are supposed to be successful, but I am beginning to think that zero percent of traders are successful over the long haul. Certainly anyone can have a streak of luck and rack up a few good months where they dramatically increase their account size, but these people are normally big risk takers and eventually they blow out their accounts by taking the exact same risks that help double their accounts in the first place.
Thanks in advance for any response.
I am just wondering.
I know I don't. I have tried all the indicators and the chat room gurus, and none of them make money.
I have a suspicion that a lot of the chat rooms for emini trading are just for hobbyists and market enthusiasts and not for serious traders trying to make a business out of trading.
For any new traders out there please be very cautious of paying anyone to mentor you or signing up for training or a chat room. From what I have seen the only people making money in these deals is the mentor, the chat room owner or the author of the training manual.
I would love to hear from you if you are a successful trader making 20% off your account or better over the past year. I know only 5 to 10 percent of traders are supposed to be successful, but I am beginning to think that zero percent of traders are successful over the long haul. Certainly anyone can have a streak of luck and rack up a few good months where they dramatically increase their account size, but these people are normally big risk takers and eventually they blow out their accounts by taking the exact same risks that help double their accounts in the first place.
Thanks in advance for any response.
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wow im impressed hunterone! Congrats!
And yes I do think it is possible to make money trading. I know quite a few people who make their living purely trading futures and have done very well for themselves.
I created a thread to continue the discussion cba33558 and I were having about eminiviper.com, since I think it got totally lost in this extensive thread. Here's where it is, in the Trading Advisory Services area:
http://www.mypivots.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=4508
http://www.mypivots.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=4508
seems some folks just like to argue and engage people......no matter what you do you won't persuade them to see a different viewpoint...........there opinion is ingrained in them.......it's interesting to follow the different approaches to a debate and fascinating from a logic standpoint......
My simplistic brain sees patterns and ideas that happen 70 - 85% of the time in the market.....nothing random about that.....what seems to be random is the ability of people to capitalize on those ideas......
As far as statements are concerned....well, I've been down that road with a vendor who hangs at elite......not really worth the effort anymore but someday we could have a thread and we could all scan in monthly statements for those who don't believe........but then again why would we need to go to such efforts? My personal statements would show a real dismal first two years ( losses) followed by ok trading the next 4 years and then the last 4 years doing very well....
ok, nuff said for me here...you either trade and beleive in yourself and your methods or you find a way to avoid trading and go back to your day job....it takes all kinds....
My simplistic brain sees patterns and ideas that happen 70 - 85% of the time in the market.....nothing random about that.....what seems to be random is the ability of people to capitalize on those ideas......
As far as statements are concerned....well, I've been down that road with a vendor who hangs at elite......not really worth the effort anymore but someday we could have a thread and we could all scan in monthly statements for those who don't believe........but then again why would we need to go to such efforts? My personal statements would show a real dismal first two years ( losses) followed by ok trading the next 4 years and then the last 4 years doing very well....
ok, nuff said for me here...you either trade and beleive in yourself and your methods or you find a way to avoid trading and go back to your day job....it takes all kinds....
"The candle patterns are based on sound psychological reasoning"... Steve Nison
mmartinez,
I am trying to get a better understanding of what it is you are trying to say. Could you help by answering a few questions for me?
Is your comment "no one makes money" strictly directed at the futures markets (as the title of this thread suggests) or are you applying it to all trading; equities, commodities, currencies etc?
Am I right in assuming that you are basing your assumption on the traders entire career? For example: The beginning years when the trader may have lost money (very common in this industry) then reached break even, then became profitable, and then if I understand you correctly they will give this profit back and if so are you claiming that they will just give all of their profit back or will they end up a net loser? (kinda several questions in that one sorry) The reason I ask this is because what good would be 10 years of records if they didn't include the entire span of ones career.
What are you considering profit? The entire amount someone has taken out of the market or just the realized amount. For example: Every profitable trader gets a visit from the (expletive here) Tax Man which he has to surrender a large amount of what he took out of the market (I think there's a dangling participle in here). This is profit that is lost forever and can not be returned to the market.
Are you implying that "no one makes money" or that no methodology makes money? For example: If a trader adapts himself to changes in the market that allow him to continue to be successful does this nullify your statement?
Is it your contention that no one makes money or that money just changes hands with no one ever ending up profitable? If no one made money I can't understand why there would be exchanges NYSE, CAC, DAX, etc.
I'll thank you in advance for answering.
I am trying to get a better understanding of what it is you are trying to say. Could you help by answering a few questions for me?
Is your comment "no one makes money" strictly directed at the futures markets (as the title of this thread suggests) or are you applying it to all trading; equities, commodities, currencies etc?
Am I right in assuming that you are basing your assumption on the traders entire career? For example: The beginning years when the trader may have lost money (very common in this industry) then reached break even, then became profitable, and then if I understand you correctly they will give this profit back and if so are you claiming that they will just give all of their profit back or will they end up a net loser? (kinda several questions in that one sorry) The reason I ask this is because what good would be 10 years of records if they didn't include the entire span of ones career.
What are you considering profit? The entire amount someone has taken out of the market or just the realized amount. For example: Every profitable trader gets a visit from the (expletive here) Tax Man which he has to surrender a large amount of what he took out of the market (I think there's a dangling participle in here). This is profit that is lost forever and can not be returned to the market.
Are you implying that "no one makes money" or that no methodology makes money? For example: If a trader adapts himself to changes in the market that allow him to continue to be successful does this nullify your statement?
Is it your contention that no one makes money or that money just changes hands with no one ever ending up profitable? If no one made money I can't understand why there would be exchanges NYSE, CAC, DAX, etc.
I'll thank you in advance for answering.
The limb that MMartinez has climbed out on is starting to get pretty shakey.
quote:
Originally posted by myptofvu
mmartinez,
Is your comment "no one makes money" strictly directed at the futures markets (as the title of this thread suggests) or are you applying it to all trading; equities, commodities, currencies etc?
[\quote].
Not just futures markets, all markets. trading is trading. the difference is just how much leverage you use and how much liquidity there is.
quote:
Am I right in assuming that you are basing your assumption on the traders entire career?
[\quote]
The entire career. It's pointless to ignore any part of the career. What is the use of trading if you don't end with a net profit at the end of your career?
quote:
What are you considering profit?
Ignore taxes. Profit is everything you make minus the capital you injected and minus the fees you paid on each trade.
quote:
Are you implying that "no one makes money" or that no methodology makes money? For example: If a trader adapts himself to changes in the market that allow him to continue to be successful does this nullify your statement?
Nobody can consistently make money from trading, regardless of whether you try to adapt your strategies. You may be successful for a period of time, but it is an illusion - you are not "successful" you are simply "lucky" for a certain period of time. As long as you keep trading this is guaranteed to change.
[quote]
Is it your contention that no one makes money or that money just changes hands with no one ever ending up profitable? If no one made money I can't understand why there would be exchanges NYSE, CAC, DAX, etc.
The people who make the money don't do it by trading. They do it by creating and selling the products that eventually make it to the Exchange and get traded. By that time, the original owners have washed their hands of it - they already have their profit - and it is now floating on the free market. The original owners don't care what happens to it at that point.
[quote]
I'll thank you in advance for answering.
No problem, keep the questions coming.
m
quote:There is no point in continuing this discussion, I'm telling all of you...
Originally posted by BruceM
......no matter what you do you won't persuade them to see a different viewpoint...........there opinion is ingrained in them.......
My goal in life is to have an absolute blast during the illusionary up years, and just be totally deluded, but having a lot of fun while at it, buy a nice house to live in and some nice cars, just like Joe, and then when I absolutely must give it all back, as is mandatory, remember all the years of just having a great career, and then say 'I wish I would have listened to mmartinez, look at me now...' So, at least I have a plan now. It doesn't include giving up on trading quite yet, though, just accepting the inevitable fate we all must endure :-( To me, it's better to enjoy all the good times and accept the total loss than not to live that potentially spectacular period. But, this still doesn't answer the question of how any of us can give it all back when we have a LIFE STOP in place!!! Anyone notice I have brought this up over and over and over and it still hasn't been answered??? If someone has a million profit and they will retire if they draw down to say $800K or $700K, how will they give it all back? Isn't this a simple question? How come it has not been addressed after being asked over and over? We all know the answer why, because it totally refutes the concept it will all be given back.
All you traders, think of this. If you are a scalper, think like you were an intraday trend trader for this example. Say I have 8-10 points profit. Do I know for a positive fact that I will and must give that back now? No, I put in a trailing stop. Target traders just take the profit at a certain point. I give some back using a trailing stop, let's say back from 10 points to say 7 or 8 points. I keep that, and the trade ends. Now think about being up a million, and it draws back down to $800K or $700K. The career ends. The equity curve can be traded exactly like the chart of the individual issue. And, for exactly the same management reason, it will not be given back. Every trader out there understands exactly what I mean. But, anyone want to take the bet we will not see this addressed? It will just be ignored, like all the other times I mentioned it. Talk about selective addressing of the points being put out there that refute the claims...
All you traders, think of this. If you are a scalper, think like you were an intraday trend trader for this example. Say I have 8-10 points profit. Do I know for a positive fact that I will and must give that back now? No, I put in a trailing stop. Target traders just take the profit at a certain point. I give some back using a trailing stop, let's say back from 10 points to say 7 or 8 points. I keep that, and the trade ends. Now think about being up a million, and it draws back down to $800K or $700K. The career ends. The equity curve can be traded exactly like the chart of the individual issue. And, for exactly the same management reason, it will not be given back. Every trader out there understands exactly what I mean. But, anyone want to take the bet we will not see this addressed? It will just be ignored, like all the other times I mentioned it. Talk about selective addressing of the points being put out there that refute the claims...
I consistently profit from futures/futures options, but it took me a long time to figure out the best way for me to do so.
While a set of trading rules is very important, I have found that it is just as, maybe even MORE important, to develop "trading callouses" from getting your butt handed to you repeatedly along the way.
Here's the thing: Any set of rules will only work until they don't. It is normal human psychology that there will come a time (again and again) where you deviate from the rules because A) you have had a string of losses, B) you have had a string of wins and now you have a loss and can't believe you're really supposed to "lose this one," C) you get greedy, D) you get scared for whatever reason, or E) any one of a thousand other things that will cause you to screw up.
I had ups and downs for many years until I thought I had it figured out and had a couple of years of really solid profits. I had my own private island picked out :) (not really, but I did have a condo in mind O/N an island). Then came the financial crisis of 2008 and I learned that while I had a generally good strategy, because times were good I had not developed an appropriate risk control system.
Hundreds of thousands of dollars later... (and that didn't take long at all!) I learned the hard way that my strategy was woefully inadequate when the unexpected happened. It took me a while to brush myself off, but eventually I did.
Since sometime in 2009 my cumulative returns are somewhere around 450%. Over the past 9 years I've found that proper risk control continues to be where I tend to fall short, so I've had some choppiness during this time. About two years ago I tightened things up some more to try to make for a smoother equity curve... this mean that, theoretically, my losing months should NOT be as large as in the past, but my winning months will also not be as large as they were in the past.
That's okay though -- even my cumulative success over the past 9-10 years, when averaged out by month, comes to < 2% a month. I suspect that 2% a month, long term, is about where I'll stay, but the ride should just be smoother along the way.
A return like that may or may not be enough for a particular person--it is for me--but keep in mind if you want to shoot for the stars there's a really good chance you're going to eventually crash land back on earth. It really does come down to being adequately capitalized and having a reasonable return be "enough" for you. By all means, trade even with a small account, because you need that experience to get to the point where you'll know what you're doing when you have the larger account. Just don't expect to turn a tiny account into a massive one along the way or you will probably be disappointed.
-PDG
While a set of trading rules is very important, I have found that it is just as, maybe even MORE important, to develop "trading callouses" from getting your butt handed to you repeatedly along the way.
Here's the thing: Any set of rules will only work until they don't. It is normal human psychology that there will come a time (again and again) where you deviate from the rules because A) you have had a string of losses, B) you have had a string of wins and now you have a loss and can't believe you're really supposed to "lose this one," C) you get greedy, D) you get scared for whatever reason, or E) any one of a thousand other things that will cause you to screw up.
I had ups and downs for many years until I thought I had it figured out and had a couple of years of really solid profits. I had my own private island picked out :) (not really, but I did have a condo in mind O/N an island). Then came the financial crisis of 2008 and I learned that while I had a generally good strategy, because times were good I had not developed an appropriate risk control system.
Hundreds of thousands of dollars later... (and that didn't take long at all!) I learned the hard way that my strategy was woefully inadequate when the unexpected happened. It took me a while to brush myself off, but eventually I did.
Since sometime in 2009 my cumulative returns are somewhere around 450%. Over the past 9 years I've found that proper risk control continues to be where I tend to fall short, so I've had some choppiness during this time. About two years ago I tightened things up some more to try to make for a smoother equity curve... this mean that, theoretically, my losing months should NOT be as large as in the past, but my winning months will also not be as large as they were in the past.
That's okay though -- even my cumulative success over the past 9-10 years, when averaged out by month, comes to < 2% a month. I suspect that 2% a month, long term, is about where I'll stay, but the ride should just be smoother along the way.
A return like that may or may not be enough for a particular person--it is for me--but keep in mind if you want to shoot for the stars there's a really good chance you're going to eventually crash land back on earth. It really does come down to being adequately capitalized and having a reasonable return be "enough" for you. By all means, trade even with a small account, because you need that experience to get to the point where you'll know what you're doing when you have the larger account. Just don't expect to turn a tiny account into a massive one along the way or you will probably be disappointed.
-PDG
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