Does anyone really make money trading futures?

Does anyone really make money trading futures?

I am just wondering.

I know I don't. I have tried all the indicators and the chat room gurus, and none of them make money.

I have a suspicion that a lot of the chat rooms for emini trading are just for hobbyists and market enthusiasts and not for serious traders trying to make a business out of trading.

For any new traders out there please be very cautious of paying anyone to mentor you or signing up for training or a chat room. From what I have seen the only people making money in these deals is the mentor, the chat room owner or the author of the training manual.

I would love to hear from you if you are a successful trader making 20% off your account or better over the past year. I know only 5 to 10 percent of traders are supposed to be successful, but I am beginning to think that zero percent of traders are successful over the long haul. Certainly anyone can have a streak of luck and rack up a few good months where they dramatically increase their account size, but these people are normally big risk takers and eventually they blow out their accounts by taking the exact same risks that help double their accounts in the first place.

Thanks in advance for any response.

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Originally posted by pips2007

So when you enter a trade the probability of it reaching the 20-30 pts is like 90%...or 99% of making a profit. Ludicrous statement with no facts to back it up.

When you got the hedge fund job let me know..... Let us know when you get yours, too.

ok...this is my last post...Our prayers have been answered.

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Originally posted by ruvan

subq,

You put out the bait and I'm biting. Who is the trading mentor that you confirmed makes a living from trading? Please post the link to his website. Thank you.

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It wasn't meant to be bait. This is not an advertising forum so feel free to send me a PM or email if you want to discuss anything like that.

Fair enough. "You got mail" as they say in AOL land.

subq, thanks for the thoughtful email. I looked over the info, but MP is not my cup of trading tea so that's where my ivestigation starts and ends.

you said "EST 10:10 above bullish,,,,below bearish....go check the mkt Jan 31, 29, 28...2 of those days...mkt way above 10:10....TIME....and how many pts did it give...this alone is worth tens of thousands of dollars...see how I get my 6/10/20/30 or what ever pts a day.........
so in the first 40 minutes of trading (market at 10:10), above bullish below bearish...where's your entry point?

thanks

Liz

what is the typical points that a "Average trader can make per day on es mini..i know its a general question..

I think looking at daily basis may be way to short term when viewing ones trading...i.e. one day doesn't make a trader although it can break him/her, ( as the saying thats haunted me for years goes...you are only as good as your next trade) View your trading account just as viewing a stock chart, you want to see new tops, and higher lows. My objectives every day are start well, trade all day, and finish well in the green. But to answer your question the average traders don't make anything. They lose there account very quickly.

And instead of learning from their mistakes, they give up and stop trading. Then they tell others that you cannot make through trading.

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Originally posted by jimkane

Very well explained, hunterone.

Just as I was one of the first to want to watch you trade on Skype, I would also like to listen in on this a bit, but I have one reservation. Since you said you aren't a tech guy, this is addressed at anyone else who can answer this.

I know PalTalk is immensely popular with traders, but I have seen a lot of reference to it installing spyware, and creating all sorts of computer issues. An extensive search on the Internet left me with no firm conclusions. I know many have had zero problems and love it, so pointing that out is not really adding anything I can use. Has anyone had any bad experiences, or can anyone reference a trustworthy link that verifies some issues with it? Some of the talk out there is pretty scary, and I've avoided using it all this time. Are these warnings credible? Even McAfee Site Advisor, which many feel is not accurate on some of the calls it makes, has a warning on it.

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I am on Paltalk everyday, lastest version is stable and safe but you need to do 2 things
1) uncheck the box asked "Do you want to install Ask bar tool from Ask.com" during installation process. Ask bar tool is as bad as they come.
2) add *.paltalk.com to the list of restricted site of IE, this will prevent all popups from paltalk.

To answer the original question, I've concluded that the answer is no. I've made the following observations:

1. Wall Street professionals who work in trading pits make money by trading other people's money and taking a commission, not from knowing future direction of prices

2. Anybody else who makes money - it is the result of luck or insider trading (cons).

3. Studies were done in the 1960s showing that asset prices are random and not predictable. These were statistical studies. Subsequent mathematical analysis over the years has upheld those results.

4. People who have made some money trading incorrectly assume it was due to skill not luck. Same with gamblers.

5. People who have made some money trading incorrectly believe it is repeatable. Same with gamblers.

6. The majority of people who invest and trade their money were led to believe that asset prices are predictable.

7. Professionals who convince the public to invest and trade, fall into the following categories:

7.a. Those who make money by selling investment products (books, subscriptions, etc.) to you and me

7.b. Those who are company executives and want to raise capital by selling stock. The capital benefits their company, not you and me.

7.c. Those who make commissions from your trades

8. There is a huge amount of advertising aimed at convincing the public that investing in stocks, gold, etc. makes sense. The purpose of this advertising is to take money out of the hands of the public and put it in the hands of the advertisers.

9. There is little to no advertising warning the public that asset prices are not predictable.

m

I consistently profit from futures/futures options, but it took me a long time to figure out the best way for me to do so.

While a set of trading rules is very important, I have found that it is just as, maybe even MORE important, to develop "trading callouses" from getting your butt handed to you repeatedly along the way.

Here's the thing: Any set of rules will only work until they don't. It is normal human psychology that there will come a time (again and again) where you deviate from the rules because A) you have had a string of losses, B) you have had a string of wins and now you have a loss and can't believe you're really supposed to "lose this one," C) you get greedy, D) you get scared for whatever reason, or E) any one of a thousand other things that will cause you to screw up.

I had ups and downs for many years until I thought I had it figured out and had a couple of years of really solid profits. I had my own private island picked out :) (not really, but I did have a condo in mind O/N an island). Then came the financial crisis of 2008 and I learned that while I had a generally good strategy, because times were good I had not developed an appropriate risk control system.

Hundreds of thousands of dollars later... (and that didn't take long at all!) I learned the hard way that my strategy was woefully inadequate when the unexpected happened. It took me a while to brush myself off, but eventually I did.

Since sometime in 2009 my cumulative returns are somewhere around 450%. Over the past 9 years I've found that proper risk control continues to be where I tend to fall short, so I've had some choppiness during this time. About two years ago I tightened things up some more to try to make for a smoother equity curve... this mean that, theoretically, my losing months should NOT be as large as in the past, but my winning months will also not be as large as they were in the past.

That's okay though -- even my cumulative success over the past 9-10 years, when averaged out by month, comes to < 2% a month. I suspect that 2% a month, long term, is about where I'll stay, but the ride should just be smoother along the way.

A return like that may or may not be enough for a particular person--it is for me--but keep in mind if you want to shoot for the stars there's a really good chance you're going to eventually crash land back on earth. It really does come down to being adequately capitalized and having a reasonable return be "enough" for you. By all means, trade even with a small account, because you need that experience to get to the point where you'll know what you're doing when you have the larger account. Just don't expect to turn a tiny account into a massive one along the way or you will probably be disappointed.

-PDG