I'll start the topic for this week with this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/eight-wtf-divergences

I'm expecting some great action, and always on the lookout for the 'top' to be in place. Here, early summer in the 1600's, year end at 2000, who knows. But I suspect it will be one of them. Maybe not. I'll just be reading the clues and finding the setups. That's what I do best, I think...

as an indirect answer to jim's question..i am a stock trader. i do no trade options or futures. thus i look for percentage return... for instance that is why i am always looking for a way to do a vix derivative trade off the index setups... the percentage return is much greater for the swing...but coming off the top in AAPL i thought i owed it to the members of the other forum( where i was INVITED to participate for free even though it was a pay site) to show the trades( there was a lot of shorting and covering and reshorting OFF THE INITIAL TOP)as i has said that at the very very least expect AAPL TO TRADE DOWN TO THE MEDIANLINE ANCHORED ON THE HIGH.... so i traded the trades and showed the trades and showed the resells in the face of the moderator averaging down... so on the day it hit the medianline my access was denied and i was tossed... FROM THAT MOMENT ON i felt no need to trade AAPL and found better opps.. here and there i hit the tools but not all the way down... but on the first move down i made more than 100% of the move as i was shorting and covering....so that is how i traded it..

to be honest, i am in awe that the line drew no response... is the next move to 10?

ES 15-min TL right here.

I've fallen, and I can't get up...

Here are my higher timeframe levels.

1514.50-18.00

1483.00-84.50 (***)

1449.50-51.00


*** This is very tricky in here, and very curious, because the key .382 is at 93, and the .447 at 76, and something else key I have is at around 71. The obvious TL is near that .382. I don't know why I am not getting confluences with short-term action and longer-term, or with various lines. It can happen, and seems to be happening now. I want to see what develops and then I can make some additional assessments. As I mentioned earlier today on the very-short-term, the reason the work is all over the place may be it is not going there. This may respect the low here with this 'test' and they may game it right back up. Or, they may bounce it somewhere around here to form a 'W2' ABCD of some sort, and then crush it.

Those 'bulls' sure did snatch victory from the jaws of defeat there with that turnaround.

I agree...this is the most simple of setups.... I've shown the tbt version to people and they see reversal rather than an abcd continuation to the old low

Originally posted by roofer

in advance... i showed this before.... perhaps it is well known and i just don't know it....but just as the markets are waking up to the fact thatprinting endless money out of thin air does not IMMEDIATELY TRANSLATE into gold going to the moon if the fed hold a gun to the bankers heads and says don't lend it and don't speculate in any market with it EXCEPT STOCKS....SO TOO THE TECHNICALS OF THIS CHART say another new high in bonds....not what most expect...

Click image for original size

And if bonds are going up, shouldn't the market be going down? In the old days, it would...

Hey, did anyone notice a few hours back gold all of the sudden took a $40+ dump? It's made it almost all back now, but wow. Not to mention that's like $70+ movement in the after hours like it was nothing.

Set-up


Context

Let's hope it is different this time!

Originally posted by roofer

OFF TOPIC-since 1988, in 22 of the 24 springs, i have had crippling back blowouts where i can not walk for a few weeks( in one of the two that it did not happen, i broke my back!)always in the first cold spell after the first warm up.... that is tomorrow...i shall see.....