I'll start the topic for this week with this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/eight-wtf-divergences

I'm expecting some great action, and always on the lookout for the 'top' to be in place. Here, early summer in the 1600's, year end at 2000, who knows. But I suspect it will be one of them. Maybe not. I'll just be reading the clues and finding the setups. That's what I do best, I think...

Price action to the PTA was quite smooth so I'm waiting for simple moving averages crossover, but I will consider swing violation or pullback technique too.

Candle close with MA5 higher than MA15 triggered the trade. SL placed half way between the two lowest areas.

Initial first thrust is 17 pips on average which overlaps with .486 retracement of the whole abcd. Price needs to ride through KZ to get there which usually indicates strength of reaction.

What I don't like is that the price is still testing red ML lower // from below and cannot come back over it.

re bonds- i have no direct answer for jim's question...as always different time frames give different clues.yesterday's geometry suggested a trading short... but that is as it always is ..the ebb and flow...just wanted to be sure to have it out there in advance..

sometimes you have too many trades going... sometimes your sump pump starts smoking when you need it to work... more and more youjust get tired at the end of day... we are in and out of trades for more reasons than just the tools... i have not been in bonds since price had that big up day to line... shorting yesterday was tempting at line but the was no trade signal i could find... and price had not traded to important fib and lines just above price.... these were my thoughts as i turned to other trades...

Initial thrust level hit. SL moved to .685 - 2 pips of the thrust move and MLs crossing.
I think another reasonable level would be slightly below the black upsloping TL.

.685 is my favorite level when I trade the Euro. It produses major reactions many times as well 5-6 pips pops just for scalping.

Sl moved to .786 of the second thrust - 1 pip, just under red ML and black TL.
Norice the short, almost vertical green line - this the reaction between the top of initial thrust and .685 ret + 1 pip of the first thrust.

Here are the framework of areas I will be watching if the price gets there. Framework means I'll be adding retracements and projections from other moves when necessary.

Let's hope it is different this time!

Originally posted by roofer

OFF TOPIC-since 1988, in 22 of the 24 springs, i have had crippling back blowouts where i can not walk for a few weeks( in one of the two that it did not happen, i broke my back!)always in the first cold spell after the first warm up.... that is tomorrow...i shall see.....