Here are two interesting long term charts of main indexes:






Isn't it amazing that what seemed to be a disorganized collapse reversed dramatically exactly where it should according to geometry??

That was some 'Boink!'

We need jarek to post his chart from yesterday to see about that 'retest' I mentioned it needed. But, it's hard to think this could roll down...

thinking it has to be a stop run Jim if it gets above 67...watching the key line here.

Well, we have the ABCD here back at the line, with the frenzy final move into the area. It either plays out or it doesn't, but it is set up perfectly. Still, even though there is a big ABCD potential 'W2' here, that only plays out if a top is in. With another trillion and more where that came from, maybe it wants new highs. Hard to see it selling with all that cash to go right into the market (you know, the money that was supposed to bail things out...).

gold another nice setup basis 5 min..it really wants those high time frame ratios at 50-56.

67 is giving it troubles the retest for the flush or just a pause for a runnup?

All I can say is this is a very dangerous spot for it to roll off of. If they don't come in, it may get killed. But a trillion leveraged is a lot to play with. Still, it's only a matter of time until it can't be done anymore...

Here's the thing for trading. You assess probabilities, and take shots. If I feel rolling is more likely, or enough of a roll to be net postive outcome over time, I take a shot. If I don't feel that way, I stay with the long. If I'm not sure, if I feel it is a coin flip, I stand aside, and if already long going into the area, work the management, and let it do what it does. One can never know what it will do. One can only assess odds based on experience, and then decide whether it is worth taking a shot. In the end, that's what it all comes down to. For me, this spot and trigger was worth a shot for an intraday play. Now we see if that's all it does. Then one can act accordingly, and on to the next setup.

thanks Jim..I keep on telling myself that.

One thing I think is that people try to make this a lot more complicated than it is. They want to 'know' before they will act, and that is not how probability games work. They try to overanalyze, instead of find a small edge and then exploit it repeatedly. The basic skills are required before one can have an edge, but I've seen people who I felt had that skill, and yet were so caught up in trying to 'know' what the market would do they couldn't even attempt to expoit the edge. Stuck in that trap forever, a prison they made for themselves in their own mind.

geometry...

fyi, i took a portion of trade off at line from set... but i kept a portion on with wide stop equal to profit....we shall see...