Here are two interesting long term charts of main indexes:






Isn't it amazing that what seemed to be a disorganized collapse reversed dramatically exactly where it should according to geometry??

Yes, and that's my 60's area I mentioned. I have the same layout you have on my own charts. At the least we will have major clues if they blow it out to the upside. That setup is why I think we hit lock limit up in GLOBEX at 62, and have drifted off from there.

I guess I'm resigned to the concept that liquidity will drive this to new highs and above, perhaps even Zero Hedge's Dow 36,000 (I'm serious), and then the world implodes when no one would even consider it possible that anything could go wrong. I, for one, will never abandon my belief we will see a total meltdown and global reset. I'll trade the long side all the way to the detonation, but after this weekend, I am having some ethical issues with it, to be honest.

I've debated only trading commodities because I think it is perhaps unethical to be making money on this on the backs of taxpayers and savers. But, ultimately, if this inflates commodities will inflate for the same reasons, and even currencies will move up or down in response to this, so the same issues apply. I wish I could divorce myself from what is going on and just focus on the trade, but I'm finding it ever more difficult, as the level of sickness just keeps going up. It's not off the table I may quit trading.

Originally posted by jimkane

... It's not off the table I may quit trading.

That's too bad to hear you are even considering this after so much investment from your side.

Wow, thanks for the vote, whoever did that. I thought that post wouldn't go over very well. Maybe you voted it up for the technical part of it :-)

My long side is finally getting some traction here, with a nice ramp into the close back to near the HOD. I can't imagine that ABCD area holding this. I think the most likely scenario is we see that 80 area tomorrow, maybe in the overnight. I suspect with another trillion to play with this will take out the 'bull' market high in short order. How odd to leave such a monster-sized gap behind, essentially never to be closed. But, it does happen.

I voted it up because I agree completely about the sickness part of it. Many people, who took sound investment decisions last week, were cruelly punished today. This will bring nothing good in the long term.

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by jimkane

... It's not off the table I may quit trading.

That's too bad to hear you are even considering this after so much investment from your side.

Yeah, and it's something that I shouldn't even be talking about out loud. It's just my nature to lay things out and be up front. I am having serious ethical issues on this. I can no longer comfortably 'hold my nose and take the money', as roofer says. It really is unfair I'd lose my career, another unintended casualty of this nonsense. My biggest issue, and it is admittedly a personal issue I have to deal with, is everyone being so bullish and explaining all the reasons why the up moves are justified. If they all said 'Look, this is insane, the bailout money should go to actually bailing people out, not just more speculation which then worsens the problem, but it is what it is, the prices are completely unjustified based on fundmentals, they exist only because liquidity is forcing them up to insane levels. But, I'm a trader/investor and it's the only market there is, so I'll just play along.' then I could live with that. But to hear endlessly this BS about how undervalued stocks are, and on and on, I just can't take it.

I mean, it is completely unethical in my eyes to run this up, and all these people who endlessly tout the bull case, they contribute to this, and yet they will never, ever consider what they are doing is hurting savers and taxpayers. They are quite proud of their actions and beliefs. And I am having trouble with that. That makes it ethically hard for me to have a part in it. Hence, I am seriously considering 'retiring'. And yes, when I am at the top of my game so to speak, with many new discoveries ahead of me, it seems a shame. But, if I truly think the world will implode in the not too distant future, I think I'd rather go on a several year vacation and spend my retirement money than feel terrible on a daily basis watching this insanity and the idiots who think it is great, and then watch my dollars go to zero. So, that's why I am considering it.

Jim ..try taking it one day at a time. That is all you can do. Life isnt fair but you are playing the game at the highest level. The market is your tool in life...that is all.

Well, I do know that in order to keep moving forward I'm going to have to divorce myself, as roofer has, from any meaning the squiggles on the chart may have, and only focus on the game and the squiggles, and that's it. So far I have been failing miserably at this, and it is taking a toll on my mental health. I'll need to figure a way to do this, but as of yet I haven't been doing very well with it.

Although that 80 area is what everyone is watching, and I mean every blog and forum I follow, my key line is in the 90's, and that's the center of that topping formation. Breaking above the 80's level would draw a lot of longs in, and set it up to get killed. But, alas, all I see is new highs and that 1400 I've been mentioning next, on the way to all-time highs and higher. Still, the two levels mentioned are what I will be watching for clues and potential long call management.

jim-someone in my family has traded since the 1910's... fortunes have been made and lost.. the family album contains pictures of summer estates with chauffeurs polishing the rolls out in front of the mansion; it also contains the picture of one room shack where 5 people lived with no running water or electricity.the one message that was passed down from generations is that it is all just a game to be played well or poorly.the touting, the deceit, the mass hysteria, the extremes have always been a given. what has changed is the technology available to the private trader. in the fifties and early sixties i used to get on a bus and ride downtown with an old lady who was a respected trader and sit in a large room where stock prices were manually changed on a huge black board wall.. in the seventies and early eighties in order to be hooked up to real time price at home( no charts mind you, just price!) i had to pay $200 a month to have a dish on my roof... all during the eighties, there were dozens of trading floors here where hundreds of people would sit and tape read..fast forward to today... with my computer i have at my fingertips in my house all the info i need to trade for the princely sum of a dollar a day... the same info feed in the mid eighties was thousands a month........so i sit in my house in the dark in front of a bank of screens doing the modern version of what my family has always done...speculate by playing a game....when i tell even ''sophisticated investors'' how i do it they hoot and holler and think i am out of my mind.... but when i show them my last 44 .886 on gap trades taken over the last month with 40 winners and 4 scratches and remind them that i told them about the trade 18 months ago, they shut up.kane traders know how the game is being played...some times it is best to just walk away for a while.. i am very ,very fortunate to have built in alternatives. with a phone call i can be gone from my trading into the hard life of roofing or with a step out the door i can be in my garden where the work never ends.as my mom said''the casino never closes; the markets will always be there.you do not have to always be there; choose your time and place.

Thanks, roofer, nice post.

geometry...

fyi, i took a portion of trade off at line from set... but i kept a portion on with wide stop equal to profit....we shall see...