Here is the update of my longer term ES chart:



I know this potential drop of 10% in a couple of weeks is hard to conceive for some. But I can't find a better explanation for the corrective nature of the March-May rise

Good comments. On this one:

"They have me so terrified of the short side right now, I can't even imagine shorting this."

I was deadly serious. They made it look incredibly strong. I prefaced this comment (set it up) with this previous post:

"ES look unstoppable, as 18-19 looms."

I also had in the first post 'Ponder that.', with a follow up 'Are you pondering???' This all was designed to make it obvious I was trying to make one think about how they make something act the opposite of what they plan to do as it comes into an area, to scare people and make them too wary to make the play.

I have mentioned many times before that I watch myself, and if I let myself think just like a regular person, I can get a clue what the 'suckers' are feeling. Here I felt it was just nuts to even think about shorting this monster. That compelled me toward making a trade. I knew I had a key piece of what I wanted as soon as I sensed the 'insanity' of the play.

I had a discussion with a long-term student a little while ago, and we were discussing getting out of one's comfort zone. I think I surprised him when I told him pretty much every day I trade the market takes me out of my comfort zone. This was a perfect example of that. I try to use this to my advantage. Now, given that on the medium-term this play still hasn't signaled a full closure yet by my usual techniques, I'd say sensing and facing the discomfort was the correct move, for me, in a case like this.

I hope this helps. And I do understand that sometimes it is hard to know when I'm sarcastic, and when I'm not, especially for those where English is not their first language. But, I think there is a lot to be gained trying to interpret what I say, so I'm not willing to just spoon it out and be 100% clear. I need people to think, study, ponder, and decide what I mean based on what the tools say. The tools should be able to tell you if I am sarcastic or serious when I make a comment.

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by jimkane

This may be redundant, but I want to make a comment here. I don't post for my health, especially when I post a fair amount in a row, like today, which can be very challenging when I have live, open positions. I usually do it when I see a sequence of things that I feel have great teaching potential. I don't make trivial posts (by my definition), I try to make every post for a specific reason. I have things I'm trying to get everyone to see, to focus on...

Here are my remarks, Jim:

- at the time of the day you usually show up I rarely have more than half of votes left at my disposal. It’s simply not possible for me to vote up all your posts, I find valuable. Especially on a day like yesterday when you made more than 40 posts during RTH…

- I don’t know how about the others, but sometimes I have problems with deciphering the messages hidden in your sarcastic posts. Like for example the one from your post of the day yesterday: "They have me so terrified of the short side right now, I can't even imagine shorting this" Does Jim think up or down from here? – that is the question

- I think your remarks would be much more valuable for everybody here when coupled with charts. I understand that you decided not to post charts during the trading hours and that is fine. But a medium term chart from time to time with the most important lines you watch would definitely help to understand your short term remarks and gain better understanding of the methodology. And I’m pretty sure you would get a record number of votes for every chart posted here

1.000 ABCD just hit, but I can't see that stopping it. Just want to see how this goes on the European open. Then I'm going to crash and let jarek take over. That nap is losing its power to keep me going, and as morning comes early here on the west coast, I'm done... If this thing lets me go... I sense a possible move here, and I'd hate to sleep through it...

This may be the battle of the day in ES:

... and the bulls have clearly won it:

Looking longer term this bounce comes off the lower ML of an important set, so we'll watch it for potential retest purposes:



The question remains however, if this move to 1.460 was already it if it comes to the whole move off our bigger bearish TD ABCD

This is a good place for at least a pause. It's already 11.50 points from LOD:

rat... you up all nite?!

i rarely factor in outside work.... but it has been a while since the long and short term have been so bullish together

no...got up at 5:45 est...fabulous sunrise from the roof patio

Originally posted by roofer

rat... you up all nite?!

Okay, see everyone later. I'll try to do those updates on copper and the Swissie like I mentioned in those sections, and get to jarek's question on that being a KT rocking chair pattern failure setup, some time this weekend.