I'm wondering about possible scenarios for a full playout of this test and retest at SPX showed here on Friday:



... and the only reason for a quick drop from here to the lower ML could in my opinion be a failed 5th wave at SPX and ES. Because on many other indexes the recent rise looks like already completed 5th wave:

Too funny. Back to a TL and GZ, and they gun it straight up.

I just can't imagine this doesn't go back to 'risk on' in here. At least an attempt at it.

Okay, this should be entering the impulsive 'W3' stage in here, if they are indeed 'risk on' again.

Looking better so far...

But there are many things to watch. Like this immediate 1.618 now that it took out the obvious upper price flow line (it's technically not a TL when it sits over uptrending price action) on the 1-min. If it's impulsive, it should explode in here. Or will it try to 'backtest' that line?

I only took a very small bear position and got stopped out. I realized that would happen when I looked at the 30 minute and saw the outrageous volume bars at the low.
So I flipped over to long for a quick in/out profit to cover the loss.

Originally posted by jimkane

If you are referring to the small bearish 4PT, be cautious on that one.

ES did 'backtest' the line. But it should be literally exploding out of here, if this is 'W3' impulsive action after clearing 'W2' junk. If it keeps meandering around, they aren't very serious about 'risk on'. And CL's action is not saying 'risk on' right now...

So far, so good on this W3:



The final test will come at that downsloping TL

Thar she blows!

13.75 here is a caution zone. Next stop, around 15.75.

Originally posted by jimkane

... so the Gross post will be short...

I see that we have a new definition of "short"