I'm wondering about possible scenarios for a full playout of this test and retest at SPX showed here on Friday:



... and the only reason for a quick drop from here to the lower ML could in my opinion be a failed 5th wave at SPX and ES. Because on many other indexes the recent rise looks like already completed 5th wave:

Watch CL for that move down to the lower area I mentioned.

good point.....why did they have a top line miss? hmmmmm

Originally posted by jimkane

Okay, it seems they want to close cash right at a key area, into the Alcoa earnings. Very interesting. Shouldn't Alcoa blow out earnings on the commodities run???

X stayed within this schiff set on 5 min; got to bottom of channel today and bounced.

it did do something interesting at the low, but the indicators are giving me pause about whether it is ready to bounce. it is possible, but it absolutely has to hold that line...

Originally posted by tx_ches

X stayed within this schiff set on 5 min; got to bottom of channel today and bounced.

CL hit 109.33 so far, basis June. Top of the lower area. I knew it would want to try to get at least there. Line-wise it really needs to get to the lower part of the area. We'll see. Still short side bias 'intraday' if you could call it that at this time of day.

ES just broke lower, headed for that next spot, now just a point+ away. Will that bounce it? Look at the ABCD levels (my first level mentioned falls in with the .886 ABCD). Do the work, and it should be easy to see where to watch.

Originally posted by jimkane

I have a key area in CL here that it just hit, and one below. I've got my numbers on the June contract, and most are still trading the May, but they are, approximately: 109.90-110.17 and 108.75-109.20, basis June.

Thanks for pointing that out.
X is a Butterfly pattern on the 30 and 60 minute chart.

Originally posted by rat89

it did do something interesting at the low, but the indicators are giving me pause about whether it is ready to bounce. it is possible, but it absolutely has to hold that line...

108.77 hit! All lines hit. Grouping fully hit. It doesn't get any better than this for me. Now, given that this may be a key area for support to come in, what would be the approach, given the short side setup is still in play? See what it does, and manage accordingly is what my 'Trading Plan' says.

In case it drops further my plan doesn't say to close plays out at 'targets'. The market says when. If a play triggers off this area, it will do so after giving plenty of signals that the short side play is done. Lower timeframe play into higher. Now I see what it does. I just knew we'd see that lower area...

Originally posted by jimkane

CL hit 109.33 so far, basis June. Top of the lower area. I knew it would want to try to get at least there. Line-wise it really needs to get to the lower part of the area. We'll see. Still short side bias 'intraday' if you could call it that at this time of day.

ES just broke lower, headed for that next spot, now just a point+ away. Will that bounce it? Look at the ABCD levels (my first level mentioned falls in with the .886 ABCD). Do the work, and it should be easy to see where to watch.

Originally posted by jimkane

I have a key area in CL here that it just hit, and one below. I've got my numbers on the June contract, and most are still trading the May, but they are, approximately: 109.90-110.17 and 108.75-109.20, basis June.

So, 3D into the area for CL. Almost five bucks about straight down. Is that going to do it? Very exciting stuff.

Jarek has posted some updates in the prior week so look there.

ES seems to respect the lower ML of the medium term set posted in the wrong thread



TL creep or test and retests?

Originally posted by jimkane

... so the Gross post will be short...

I see that we have a new definition of "short"