I'm wondering about possible scenarios for a full playout of this test and retest at SPX showed here on Friday:



... and the only reason for a quick drop from here to the lower ML could in my opinion be a failed 5th wave at SPX and ES. Because on many other indexes the recent rise looks like already completed 5th wave:

it seems to me they have to defend it here or else

The Big Dog is looking weak, on a longer-term (actually mid-term) chart. They better come in for it, or that's one heck of a top formation... I see 320ish as the line in the sand. If they plan to run it again, they may try to send it below there to trap a zillion suckers, so although I call that area the line in the sand, I mean it from the standpoint of if it holds, in general (including a trap fake), over time.

Yes, rat, and I suspect the GZ is going to give way... And since it is based on such key lines as you have shown, that likely means swooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh.

Originally posted by rat89

it seems to me they have to defend it here or else

Click image for original size

Click image for original size

But don't think for one second TPTB (The Powers That Be) don't see this. And so far in this manipulated market, every time this happens, they come in. So, I'm not expecting the swoosh until I see it unfold. I may position for it, but the odds are less than they would be, I think, in a free market.

Now CL, that short side is playing out very nicely. No, not short off the top (although many saw the 'top' I generally look for setups after the immediate turn), but if you look, the setups are clear, and plentiful.

And in they come, for the second time. But can they sustain the move?

I have a key area in CL here that it just hit, and one below. I've got my numbers on the June contract, and most are still trading the May, but they are, approximately: 109.90-110.17 and 108.75-109.20, basis June.

Notice how the ES stopped dead at the GZ and rat's lines. Must be a coincidence.

If they can't take it up...

Watching the CL bounce into the 111.20s-111.40s area, basis June, to see if that was it, or if they may want to roll to the lower area.

x made yet another 1.27 swing at 51.90.....

Originally posted by jimkane

... so the Gross post will be short...

I see that we have a new definition of "short"