I'm wondering about possible scenarios for a full playout of this test and retest at SPX showed here on Friday:



... and the only reason for a quick drop from here to the lower ML could in my opinion be a failed 5th wave at SPX and ES. Because on many other indexes the recent rise looks like already completed 5th wave:

Do we have our small W2 now?

very close....

If you are referring to the small bearish 4PT, be cautious on that one. The drop was a total crush, with only very small corrections on the way down. It now sits on classic 'lateral support', which 'should' produce a bounce if for no other reason that it is expected, and makes traps easy to construct. This is a small pattern, and it really needs a bigger correction in here. Although it could play out, the odds make it not that great of a potential trade, over time and a large series of trades.

Speaking of SLW, that was some crush, huh? One of the most brutal I have witnessed. But, SLW does trade with a lot of volatility. It's one of the reasons I like it. Nonetheless, it did what I expected, got to the new all-time highs, did the last push right to a 1.272 and did it with a peak over another SL, so management was pretty straightforward. I'd say my students should have found that aspect quite simple and easy to follow, but anyone who read the books and has been following along in here should have an easy time, too, I feel. All in all I'm pretty happy with how that one played out.

Originally posted by tx_ches

SLW is still trying to make up its mind about its 4PT on the 5min.

That's what I am watching...

Originally posted by jarek

Do we have our small W2 now?

Click image for original size

And now that it has reached the first 'objective', will that be it?

Another bullish KZ ABCD in EUR played out fully to the new high for the move:



Don't even think about the short side before first such ABCD fails to play out

Watch this second small bullish ABCD in the ES. It really shouldn't need a second ABCD, so I'm on red alert here.

Yep - such a configuration would be really strange:

Yes, unless it is looked at as a TD that fell a tiny bit shy on the D point... It's now at a new high, so it did 'play out'. It's very labored so far if this has turned. But, it could still be, at this 'clearing' stage. Let's see if a 'W3' develops, or not, then we'll have a much better idea.

ES sure not impulsive up. Watch out on this one...

Originally posted by jimkane

... so the Gross post will be short...

I see that we have a new definition of "short"