I'm wondering about possible scenarios for a full playout of this test and retest at SPX showed here on Friday:



... and the only reason for a quick drop from here to the lower ML could in my opinion be a failed 5th wave at SPX and ES. Because on many other indexes the recent rise looks like already completed 5th wave:

Understand, the decision about which side of the market to be on must be made well before this point. This layout just provides clues for the premise, which has already been decided upon.

go, big dog, go

So, looks like the market wants to close right at the key area, no decision made. No surprise. This sets it up for a gap up on Sunday night GLOBEX, up over the key area. That would then give it a lot of gas to power up. How's that scenario look?

Keep an eye out, though, in the next 15 minutes, for an after-cash explosion, which they sometimes do.

Yeah, market rising, big dog selling. I'm seeing a lot of key stocks weakening into a rising market...

Originally posted by rat89

go, big dog, go

And in the last second the ES gets within one tick of the HOD and closes there. Now, that is strong. That is not an indication this bearish ABCD here will be respected. Something serious would have to happen over the weekend to totally change sentiment. Right now, though, it is totally 'risk on'. All they could do was pull it back to the first .382, and up it goes into the close. What a finish. Sunday should prove to be very exciting. Note that the SPY is still rising after the ES close.

So, ES closes at essentially the high tick of the day, and the Big Dog, at the LOD. Very odd, huh?

In my previous post I forgot to mention a key item, that the ES M1 opened on a gap up on the 5 minute, formed a 0.886 fibo retrace, a tell, reversed and closed the gap. The fact that price subsequently rose was to me a show of strength.

Good Trading,

Al Kamego

Here's my promised follow up on GOOG. I'll try to do the follow up on Gross shortly after.

Most of the time I try to teach the way I learn best, which is a straightforward approach, explaining every detail very clearly. I fully believe in the 'guided discovery' approach I was taught when I was training to be a teacher, though. It has its place, I just feel when using that approach, it is still good to be very clear when trying to explain specifics.

That being said, part of this 'guided discovery' (Google it if you don't understand what that is) approach has me making humorous and/or sarcastic statements, designed to make people think about they way they receive, and perceive, information that they are constantly being bombarded with. I feel this is a better way to convey my points than just stating them right out. I feel people learn more this way, and internalize the process better. Then, going forward, they are more able to think on their own. This is the theory of those who teach by being mostly unclear the majority of the time.

I have found this cloaked approach doesn't really work for me at all, and I simply don't learn. On the other hand, though, I use this approach to some extent for broader thinking concepts (albeit with a well-thought out and consistent plan), and that is what I was trying to do here. Let me ramble with some out loud talking, and let's see if everyone can see what I am getting at.

Here's the kind of things we have heard a lot of since the Mar '09 bottom:

This market is the most undervalued it has ever been. This is the buying opportunity of the century. It's a new pardigm now. Housing going down and down, it's good for the economy, and especially the market. But, if housing goes up, that, too, would be good for the economy, and the market.

Earnings are the best they have ever been, and are rising faster than they ever have in history. This speaks for a much, much higher multiple, and much higher stock prices. S&P 2,700+ is coming (this is an actaul target by a 'top' analyst), and soon.

This is a jobless recovery, and the recovery is really picking up steam. Priceline at almost 500 is not only fully justified, it is very, very undervalued. Apple has nowhere to go but up, given its real growth only appears to be starting in here. Imagine when every Chinese and Indian person has the full line if Apple products.

Oops, there's a big spill in the Gulf. Some conspiracy nuts say it may shut down the ocean's conveyer system, which could, in thoery, end human life on the planet. The financial responsibility of those at fault far, far, far exceeds all their market cap and insurance. They are all bankrupt, and the economy will be devastated (all things I think were basically true, and 'should' have happened, just like the big banks 'should' have all been taken out in '08). No, wait, all the oil has magically disappeared, the problem is gone, and now most or all of the companies involved are now at prices higher, even much higher, than before the spill. Huh? They have all that liability, and they are priced higher now?

Uh-oh, a big quake just hit Japan, lots of devastation, and a radiation disaster that is now the only other one ranked a 7, the other being Chernobyl. But, this will be good for the economy and should boost GDP, they say. And now the Japanese stock market is right back to trading around where it was that Sunday night right after the quake.

Destruction, damage, looting, stealing, raping of taxpayers and savers, compressed profit margins, rising input prices, rising energy costs, this is all good for the economy and stocks. Stocks are rising because earnings are growing at unprecedented rates.

Oops, Alcoa missed, the stock is down hard. Market is? Up. But, well, Alcoa, billed as the commodity bellwhether, well, they must be an exception, let's ignore them. Most of the earnings are coming from the banks anyway. Oops, they aren't doing so well this season. Market is? Up. But, but...

Okay, GOOG is coming. They are a key tech bellwhether. I am thinking of one blog where this guy just is incessant on GOOG. 750? Yeah, maybe it pauses for a $1 pullback there, then up. And up more after that. This is a very serious trader, not some maniac. Someone you'd all know. GOOG can't go down.

Okay, they missed big-time, it's way down in the aftermarket. Okay, then something will happen in the conference call, and they'll gap it up and run it tomorrow. Got to be a big buyer in here. Oops, nope, it's down even more. Well, it will hit support in here, and that makes this the buying opportunity of the century on GOOG. Better even that the IPO day under $100. GOOG down. Market? Up.

Rising gas prices won't hurt the economy. Rising input costs won't reduce corporate profits, if anything, they'll increase. So will P/E's. This market here is a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. Won't you feel silly when the S&P is at 2,700+ and you didn't go all in at 1,350? What, you say, the insiders have been selling non-stop since Mar '09, sometimes like 10,000 sell to buy ratio. Yes, but that's a good indicator of this being a great buying opportunity... Huh? If oil went to $1,000 a barrel and all companies went to losing money heavily, and P/E's went way up from here, now that would be the buy of the millenium.

Taxes going way up on the middle class, over 43 million people on foodstamps, employment participation at all-time lows, and unemployment, when calculated with the methodology used during the great depression shows it is equal or even higher than at the peak during that time, inflation, even using the bogus understated CPI, if calculated using the Carter years CPI methodology, is equal to the peak then (so that's why it seems so bad when I shop and the Chairsatan says there is no inflation...), this is all very, very good for stocks. And they will rise. Trust me, they will rise. Rise, rise, I command thee...

Had enough? Get it? Yes, they may rise. But we are now seeing the 'leaders' not rising while the market is manipulated up. How can AAPL be falling and the NAZ rise? Easy, they cut the weight AAPL has in the NAZ way, way back. Just like China recently had a big jump in home prices (before the more recent big drop), and they cut the weighting of houses in their CPI way back. Can't have too much inflation getting verified...

Like roofer said in his 'charts' post from yesterday, GOOG's fate was sealed awhile back. No amount of BS propaganda could change that. Until the government decides GOOG needs to go up, it won't be going up. Until then, PCLN, NFLX, and TZOO will be the next leaders, or whoever.

If they nuke LA or something, or that Yellowstone supervolcano goes off, expect stocks to go way, way up. That would be great for the economy, and especailly for stocks. The closer the companies main operating plants are to the blast zone, the higher the stock price will rise. We no longer live in a world where fundamentals or common sense matter. We live in the 'Bizarro World'. All that matters in a centrally-planned economy is propaganda and manipulation. Until it all collapses...

I hope my point is clear. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Try to grasp what I am saying when I make the comments I make. Try to understand how the news media is trying to brainwash and manipulate you every day. Read Zero Hedge and The Automatic Earth Blog and don't be manipulated. Or just do what roofer does, stick to the charts, and don't spend too much time thinking about things like I do, and driving yourself crazy...

Okay, the GOOG post was way longer and more time-consuming that I thought, so the Gross post will be short. I think Gross is a total insider who has essentially zero percent chance of losing money. He front runs the Fed all the time, because he has an inside line to them, and they tell him what they will be doing before they do it. This is my belief. All of what I say here is just my opinion.

So, if he is making a 'bad trade' right out in the open, it's a 'bait and switch'. There is an endless slew of possibilities of games he is playing, and I can't guess which one is most likely, but we'll all see in the end the briliance of what he is doing, if you call it brilliant to act on inside information.

I'll post two articles you can read to get an idea of what I mean. I'll toss out some ideas here first. He is now big into starting an emerging markets fund. Money goes in to bonds, it may come out of emerging markets. Gross 'goes short' bonds, and everyone tries to prove him wrong. He has a very small position. The higher bonds rise, the more they 'get him', and the squeeze is on. Likely he covered the shorts the day after he reported the position anyway.

To run the bonds they dump emerging markets (helped by the Fed/PD selling, who are in on the game), and everyone gets on board the squeeze Bill train. Meanwhile, he gets ready to load up his new fund at lower prices on the emerging markets. Or, maybe he flipped back to long bonds the next day, ready for the squeeze he expected they'd put on him. Or, maybe it's like the second article here says.

Maybe it's all a part of the Fed plan to get QE3 going in the fall. The government can't survive without QE. There is simply no one to buy our debt anymore, and it must now all me monetized going forward, forever. But there is no polical will to come out for QE3, 4, 5, etc. right now. And not with the IMF and everyone breathing down our necks (what a ironic sham, since the FED and the IMF are one and the same...).

So, if they run bonds up, and drop the stock markets, then a demand for more QE will be quick and loud. Gross helped kick it all off with his tiny little short position (which, again, he will either suffer that small loss for the much bigger gain in EM, or he's more likely already covered that short), and now he's ready to buy like crazy when the EM's drop down.

He makes a killing in his EM fund, and recall that bonds tend to do the opposite of what QE is suppposed to do, so no QE now, they rise, QE and they fall. Gross will likely short bonds heavily as he wraps up his EM buying and QE3 starts, and make a killing on both, all with inside Fed details provided to him in advance, as he works hand in hand with them to put out the right 'signals' that they want out there.

It's all a game, and Gross wins 100% of the time, and what he wins is your hard-earned money, stolen right out from under you via taxes, inflation, higher energy costs, etc. Perhaps his short here is also just cover for when he shorts big up high, so he can say he was shorting early, and took a lot of heat, but he knew he was right, so he hung tough... Gross wins, 100% of the time. It's easy to win when you have tomorrow's newspaper. You just can't win trying to piggyback what he says or does in public...


Bill Gross, Master of Monetary Psy-Ops:

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/04/april-12-2011-bill-gross-master-of.html


Here's The Setup For The Con Of The Decade:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-heres-setup-con-decade

Originally posted by jimkane

... so the Gross post will be short...

I see that we have a new definition of "short"