ES key numbers for 3-30-11

1300 - 1301.25 *** this is Tuesdays low and an area we have been watching recently that held. Volume spike at 1301.25 today.

1305.75 - 1307.00 - *****This is the value area low and a volume area that was created today. Also a Low volume area and some rejected that area quickly today. The opening range is in here too from Tuesday. Standard pivot formula S1 is in here.

1310.75 - 1311.75 ******* the big kahuna...we have the POC in here, volume spikes, and the standard pivot is in here. We also have a low volume area and the market moved away swiftly from the 1311.75. Any good shorts and buying failure will go back to this point. A big magnet that needs to be remembered even if it doesn't fill in on Wednesday. The opening range for the Week is also in this zone.

1315 - 1315.50 - *****This is Monday's High and the 4PM close sits here from Tuesday. Value area high is here too.

1320-1322.50 - we have multiple tops here and the R1 level sits up there.....monitor for poor volume and lack of follow through on any breach of that area

There are no 10 a.m reports on Wednesday but a few before 8:30 in the morning. This was some what of a trend today so it should be a better day tomorrow to buy into breaks and sell rallies early in the session. I prefer the sell side but not on declines.
Originally posted by Lisa P

1. Re IB data. I believe that in fast markets IB data lacks precision. But in slow markets it maybe OK, especially when dealing with orders that are different inmagnitude. I would like to test another data source.

2. Re big red accumulations. I believe that those show big short orders, especially at significant numbers. Not necesserily one big order, but could be several smaller orders by the same party at this price. Thus accumulation at price.

1327 was a previous high on date 3/1/2011). That was where big guys created BIG red bar on daily chart. So I expect that there are some residual orders (or big order remnants). I also expect that many traders see it and would short there - I also see those big orders. So I hop on, and put my stop close.

I also believe that traders those who originally shorted at 1327 have their stops at 1309 (2-point stop or so). So if some big guys decide to "PrepH" them (and us, small traders) they would bounce it there and take the stops. My stop is very small, so I will take it and later will try to re-short at 1329, if I see a confirmation ot my thinking.

It is also possible that those original "big shorts" on March 1 would meet a bigger buyer, the party who pushed this market higher all day today, into the major resistance, and in spite of big odds, like housing, Japan, Mid-East, etc.

So I took a short with "Mr. Big Wig" at 1327 and placed my stop and monitor what develops.

That is my train of thoughts. To summarize: I enter with Mr. Big Wig and monitor wether can follow through or he is "PrepH-ed". Mr. BigWig takes small stops, so will I. Hope that helps, if not - please ask more.

Originally posted by BruceM

I guess for me Lisa the only benefit of firing up my Delta charts is seeing the Exact price where the big volume is but I can usually see that on my one minute data...

So how specifically are you using a big RED delta bars at the highs ...? sometimes they signal shorts and sometimes long...I want to distill the core concepts which tilt the odds in my favor in regards to delta

Without us having exact data, our skype conversation would be a waste as far as Delta is concerned because our data doesn't match but we can talk about the other stuff you wanted to still...

right or wrong, love your analysis, Lisa!
You got it Kool. There isn't just one way to make money in this profession. Those who think so are trying to sell something...

Originally posted by koolblue
right or wrong, love your analysis, Lisa!

Originally posted by Lorn

You got it Kool. There isn't just one way to make money in this profession. Those who think so are trying to sell something...

Originally posted by koolblue
right or wrong, love your analysis, Lisa!

well said!..thats why i love this website... look i make some amazing calls, but im also very wrong sometimes!(1318.50 where are you? it always helps to look at other methods and viewpoints!
from a volume node perspective we have only had 3 good spikes today...and that is right at this 25 - 26 area and then the buyers at the low near will be an interesting finish....I'm curious how far they can push up with this volume and $tick divergence..

I still think they want to run the stops at 25 down into the 24.50...the O/N high...and if we can get away from this node of volume they may even try to push down for new lows on the day...

That flys in the face of logic and the profile but it just seems too sloppy....double prints on the current lows shows no real buying impulse....
I think you are correct Lisa that you should check into the data issue....perhaps IB is good enough for what you do with bid/ask stuff...

I can send you Lorns chart that he sent me if you wish...he basically took his DTN/IQ data and fed it into his 30 day free trial of MarketBalance with Ninja....So I took his chart and matched it up with PT's chart....the numbers matched EXACTLY...but like everything else, I encourage you to do your own research...I've scanned the web regarding IB data and delta and I've never found anyone who said good things about the SPECIFIC bid/ask info.

Perhaps you have been using it long enough and know what to look a newbie to delta I need to start off with data that matches up with others so I can be very specific with my questions.

and thank you for explaining your trade...I appreciate that...
Could be ,Bruce... its hard to guess whats going on here ,because tho all the longer term evidence clearly shows much higher prices over the current 1337.75(basis june) , lets face it, we've had a equal number of short term reasons this market should take a short rest!.. and i guess i mean more than the 1314.50 to 1300.25 decline that we saw so far this week!I always get a little nervous when a market goes way beyond what it reasonably should, whether up or down, cause sooner or later the piper is paid!
the trend traders will try to buy under the previous 30 minute bar low when it tests and often they want the new highs off that test quickly...

so when they don't get the new highs and they start exiting is when you see some good moves in the opposite direction...

all I'm saying is that this is a good battle up here between those of us who want to roll it over and those trying to push for new highs..
Click image for original size
Originally posted by koolblue

Oh yeah, and a possible negative divergence on the rsi?
I see it now, Kool. Thanks