I decided to split off my postings of economic links from Jim's Thoughts, so that I can get that topic back to what it was intended to be, a place for me to post trading ideas and thoughts I had that I felt could be of interest to the readers.

This topic is where I will post links to various economic articles, for those that find them interesting. If you want to read (or post) articles about the unfolding debaucle, this is the place to look. If you are a short-term daytrader or swing trader and have zero interest in the economy, you can now just read Jim's Thoughts and not have to wade through this type of dicussion.

At best I think this material only has a direct effect on longer-term plays, the bigger swings that make up the major legs of the bull and bear markets. I follow this stuff for that reason, and because I want to have a handle on things, if that is even possible in this era of lies and deception, so that I can make decisions on life issues.

For example, as I posted in the commentary on the website and discussed with many people well in advance, this was something that wasn't hard to see coming. I saw many people who told me as late as Oct 2007 that 'this thing is about to 'break out' to the upside, and that Dow 20,000, and then much higher, was 'just around the corner' '. The type of articles I am posting discuss the type of information that helped me form the viewpoints I had back then.

If this is far from over, as I suspect, we are in a similar postion now as back then. With the rally that is unfolding right now the talk is the bull is back, the bottom is in, and we are set. I'm not so sure. So, I try to weigh up all the factors and not get too sucked in by the hype. To that end, I will post things here I find interesting.

A good read on data twisting:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/06/26/the-end-of-the-recession.aspx

If you want to have some fun, read this one. Not that we didn't know all this already, but it fills it out for us a bit.

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/goldman-sachs-engineering-every-major.html

Those gov manipulators have their hands full trying to keep this market going up, in my opinon:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/06/29/a-20-year-bear-market.aspx

Things are just sooooo messed up:

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/12085

I found it particularly interesting how many are simply trading for liquidity rebates.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/jun/30/congress-financial-reform-banks

Wow, I started out reading this because of the title, and it went into the trader tax. I am really disappointed by such a lack of understanding about market liquidity from The Guardian. Just as I mention in my last commentary that crude is the new ES for daytraders. Imagine only hedging in crude, no trading at all...

Very interesting:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/former-us-assistant-secretary-treasaury-geithner-works-goldman

Especially the comments after by Mako. Read through them all for some interesting things to think about. I can't say I agree 100% with his mathematical assessment, but I think it is very close. I just think the explosion is slowed by what is paid down from actual production. I think the outcome is still the same.

Notice one thing here. Look at the run up to the 2007 top. Notice how every correction got bigger and wilder until on the last one it 'blew up' and broke out of the trend. There are some really nice physics/math formulas to explain this. It's sort of the opposite of a 'damped harmonic oscillator', to attempt to put it in layman's terms. It gets wider and wider until the system exceeds a certain level and then it 'blows up'.

Now, noticing that this happens in many bull market trends (look back and see), notice how, as Mako was showing, every crisis is getting bigger and bigger as the system expands. Soon one of them will 'blow it up'. Personally, I think this one is the one, but it may take up to eight more years for it to fully play out and send it off the tracks. I suspect the 'blow up' will be within 1-2 years, but there are so many variables it's hard to say. Only time will tell, but mathematically speaking, no emotion, no 'I can't believe what these SOB's are willing to do', no 'they always pull it off and postpone the inevitable', only mathematically, I can't work out one single set of equations that says we haven't crossed over the point of no return and that this thing can be held together. Mathematically, it's a dead man walking. Maybe there are some equations out there, and I just don't have enough skill to find them?

Good article:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-china-panic

Look at the Yen and Dow charts, particularly. We all see the relationship with the markets and the currencies. Also note his comment on the unwinding being only about 1/2 done. This fits in perfectly with my scenario of eventually seeing S&P 300-400 area. Time will tell.

Like I was saying about the mathematics...

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/07/10/buddy-can-you-spare-5-trillion.aspx

I thought it was particularly interesting, his concluding remarks about what his greatest concern was, and he said Europe and European banks. How curious, that has been my greatest concern all along, as I have mentioned many times. They are just totally 'asleep at the switch', IMO. That was also the greatest concern of the group for 'exogenous' risk. Recall what I said about a shock event. And Europe is the greatest concern after what was just said about Japan? Holy smokes. All this, as we hear talk all day on TV about the second stimulus package we 'need'. And no talk about all this. Dead man walking...

jim- i really appreciate you taking the time to post all this... i have been looking for a very detailed math based summation of the housing mess

I forgot, I do have another hero to go with Ron Paul and David Stockman, and that's Nigel Farage. Here's his latest:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/farage-unleashed-you-are-common-criminals