I decided to split off my postings of economic links from Jim's Thoughts, so that I can get that topic back to what it was intended to be, a place for me to post trading ideas and thoughts I had that I felt could be of interest to the readers.

This topic is where I will post links to various economic articles, for those that find them interesting. If you want to read (or post) articles about the unfolding debaucle, this is the place to look. If you are a short-term daytrader or swing trader and have zero interest in the economy, you can now just read Jim's Thoughts and not have to wade through this type of dicussion.

At best I think this material only has a direct effect on longer-term plays, the bigger swings that make up the major legs of the bull and bear markets. I follow this stuff for that reason, and because I want to have a handle on things, if that is even possible in this era of lies and deception, so that I can make decisions on life issues.

For example, as I posted in the commentary on the website and discussed with many people well in advance, this was something that wasn't hard to see coming. I saw many people who told me as late as Oct 2007 that 'this thing is about to 'break out' to the upside, and that Dow 20,000, and then much higher, was 'just around the corner' '. The type of articles I am posting discuss the type of information that helped me form the viewpoints I had back then.

If this is far from over, as I suspect, we are in a similar postion now as back then. With the rally that is unfolding right now the talk is the bull is back, the bottom is in, and we are set. I'm not so sure. So, I try to weigh up all the factors and not get too sucked in by the hype. To that end, I will post things here I find interesting.

This is what really worries me:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dark-gray-swan-no-more-foreign-dollars-which-buy-us-treasuries

We all talk about a trigger, a lever to set this off, an exogenous market shock event. The problem, as I see it, is that this thing is extraordinarily fragile, as all houses of cards are, and there are so many ticking timebomb triggers just waiting to happen. It's not a matter of if, but when, in my opinion. Anyway, this article, though long, is worth a detailed read, I think.

Ever since I studied the Irish potato famine, and realized we could easily be in that same boat worldwide, I've worried about worldwide famine. Too many people, too much arrogance about how the earth owes us a living, even if we get our numbers way, way, way out of balance. Throw in a talk I once had with a geneticist who told me, for example, the entire wheat stock for the earth is from one wild strain found awhile back, if any pathogen hit it we'd lose wheat permanently (they actually have deep underground stores of seeds in case such an event happens, and they can bring it up down the line...).

Anyway, I'm already concerned about this topic, and you read this, and wonder, is he right, given how we know how the gov lies all the time, or is he just another end of the world guy.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html

BTW, before you dismiss this concept, look at sugar. A little shortage in India due to low production and it's up from 8 to 27 and holding strong.

All I keep thinking about is how no one mentioned that Madoff's equity curve was just way too smooth and steady, in all markets, ups and downs, to be real. It was a really obvious thing, and a true Emperor's new clothes story. Everyone truly did know, in my opinion, that it was a Ponzi. It was obvious. Now, read how the purchase of treasuries is smooth and steady, under all conditions. Is the U.S. a giant Ponzi scheme? In my opinion, it is a lot more clear that it is than even Madoff, which was crystal clear. And we are doing exactly the same thing we did with Madoff. And afterwards, they'll say they can't believe how they could let this happen...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Sprott%20December.pdf

It's a good thing I already can't sleep at night, so things like this don't have to keep me up:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/brace-impact-2010-private-demand-us-fixed-income-has-increase-elevenfold-or-else

I can't get away from 2010 being 'the year'. Probably not. S&P probably finishes at 1400, then 1800 in 2011, then 2400+ in 2012. Then zero later in 2012. But my gut says 2010 is going to be the year that makes the history books, like 1929 will always be remembered, so will 2010. We'll see.

Just some perspective on the levels of debt we are talking about here:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/18/government-budget-deficit-personal-finance-financial-advisor-network-treasury-debt.html

For those that can't imagine what could happen in 2010 to shake things up and drop this thing like a rock off a tall bridge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/good-morning-worker-drones-week-mayhem-16

And follow up this link:

http://dprogram.net/2009/12/24/un-to-produce-bullion-coins-as-world-currency/

The UN is about to start producing a worldwide currency of silver and gold coins? Check out the 'marker chemical in them' part. Now, if that doesn't scare you (the UN coining international currency in precious metals with marker chemicals), you need to take your head out of the sand. This stuff scares me to death. Imagine the UN with a global tax they oversee (the 'carbon tax' they are pushing for), and coining a global gold currency...

Let me add in that the UN is getting a 10%-15% 'licensing fee' for each coin. They take 15% of your money just for the priviledge of having the coins!!! What a scam. A scam just like all the other scams. So they get paid an incredible amount of money to move forward in their world takeover plans. Great.

I know everyone hates this topic, but I can't help myself. I have serious concerns about what is about to unfold.

Here's a few analogies. You know how roofer always quotes joed, saying that as significant areas are hit the tools work better and better on the lower timeframes, and mesmerize traders to the point where they miss the big turn? This reminds me of how lions pack hunt and they have one obvious lion go right out and start chasing something, in an obvious manner, never really getting very close to catching it. In fact, it is chasing it right into the jaws of the ones hiding in the brush. As the critter focuses on the obvious, what is 'hidden' is what they should be worrying about. And while everyone is focusing on their trading, they don't see they are headed right for the brush with the hidden lions. All that trading isn't going to do any of us any good if this stuff unfolds, unless we have done things to protect our wealth. But it gets worse for Pessimistic Jim, because I truly believe no 'solution' to protect and preserve your wealth is going to work. Let's look at a few, since I am on a roll. Keep in mind all this is just my opinion, take it with a grain of salt and do your own due diligence.

One buys gold. Problem: what kind of gold? If it is paper gold at all it will be useless to you, as the companies holding it disappear. Physical gold? The first thing they will do is confiscate all bullion. They've done it before. So, you go with collector coins (at a huge premium), which are hard to confiscate due to the need for individual assessments on each coin (theoretically). So, you keep these at home (if they are at your safe deposit box in your bank you'll never see them again as the banks shut down and allow no access to anything)? In your floor safe? Great. Say you aren't worried about them being stolen because you watch them day and night, with your guns all strapped to you, like Humphrey Bogart In 'The Treasure of the Sierra Madre.'

Okay, now the world implodes and you are alright? You what, go to the market with a collector coin to buy some food? I wonder how many people will see that and follow you home. And even if you found some way around that, you think roaving bands won't be going house to house? You say you'll hold down the fort, you have lots and lots of guns and the place is like a fortress. Good luck. One flaming arrow or molotove cocktail and you'll come running right out. Once the place is burned down the gold or safe will be easy to pick out of the ashes. You think this is crazy, radical, way out thinking that you just can't worry about? Go back and look at some videos of the LA riots. That was over a verdict. Imagine the dollar goes to zero, the system collapses, there are massive food shortages, power and phones go off perhaps nationwide, and so on. LA would be a walk in the park. And imagine with a power vaccum like that the gangs that would jump up, and what they would do. Yeah, physical gold is going to help you out.

Or, you are diversified in other paper currencies. Great, how will that help you? Buying food in the black market with those Euros? Will you have them in paper form at your house? If so, assuming they hold some value in such a crisis, how is the situation any different than with the physical gold, except when they burn your house down they burn up. You really think holding foreign currency is going to help? And if you hold paper in an account, good luck with that when the entire system collpases and all those computers are destroyed.

So, you own your house, paid up free and clear. That's good, right? Yes, until you realize we don't really own our homes, we are really tenents of the government. You stop paying your property taxes and you'll see pretty quickly just what you own. But, in a crisis you won't be able to pay your taxes, that will be worked into the system to confiscate as many properties as possible. No method I can come up with would allow you to pay those taxes, even gold. But it is all academic, because the roving hoards will take or destroy your house anyway.

So, the above does away with any thoughts on that little garden/greenhouse you have, and that entire basement full of canned goods. Again, you think the roaving hoards are going to let you and your handful of guns keep all that and live fine while they starve? Go back to the LA riots videos and tell me you think that will work if the entire country, perhaps even world, is like that? Keep dreaming. But it gets worse. A lot worse (is anyone still reading this?).

If the U.S. 'falls' and go into anarchy, what would you be thinking if you were Russia? China? I know what I'd be thinking: invasion. Takeover. And what happens to our nuclear arsenal if there is anarchy? And our biological arsenal? And how about the terrorists? You think our nuclear plants would be safe? Our missile silos? Our biological stockpiles? You think the terrorists would feel sorry for us, or would they try to add fuel to the fire? How secure do you think our border would be if we were in anarchy?

People just don't think about the reality of all the consequenses if this thing starts to unfold. The very things I am speaking of now are why twenty years ago we should have been so very cautious. What can happen if the entire thing unravels go far beyond what most people think about. I know this is all pretty scary, and the tendency is to just not accept or to hide from anything so scary, and so seemingly impossible to deal with. But, you have to admit, I am pretty good at my read on the market, and I did call, in advance, every major entity that fell, in the order that they fell. I've been able to read some things pretty well. I'm not always correct, but I'm better than average, I think. And I think what I have described is not only a possible scenario, I think it is the most likely scenario. Maybe this upcoming year, maybe in 2011 or 2012, maybe later, but almost inevitably. And I think it will start with one card being pulled from the bottom, and the chain of events will happen so fast you'll wake up one day and it will be on the news, like 9/11 was, and it will be too late then to do anything.

What's the point of all this? Partly to tell everyone that I think you should do your own due diligence on this and make some decisions in your life before it is too late. And partly to hope that someone has some way around some of what I mention above other than 'I'm just not that pessimistic, Jim'. I can't come up with anything as hard as I try, and I'm hoping by stirring people up they can come up with something. I truly think we are on the verge of a revolution, and I'm not really too skilled in how to survive that. I'm going to start studying the history of countries that have went through something like this. What I've seen so far is just too much for me to handle, mentally. As a 'fat American' I'm just not prepared to handle very much adversity...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/key-theme-interview-shadowstats-john-williams-you-guessed-it-hyperinflation-and-death-us-eco

I forgot, I do have another hero to go with Ron Paul and David Stockman, and that's Nigel Farage. Here's his latest:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/farage-unleashed-you-are-common-criminals