I decided to split off my postings of economic links from Jim's Thoughts, so that I can get that topic back to what it was intended to be, a place for me to post trading ideas and thoughts I had that I felt could be of interest to the readers.

This topic is where I will post links to various economic articles, for those that find them interesting. If you want to read (or post) articles about the unfolding debaucle, this is the place to look. If you are a short-term daytrader or swing trader and have zero interest in the economy, you can now just read Jim's Thoughts and not have to wade through this type of dicussion.

At best I think this material only has a direct effect on longer-term plays, the bigger swings that make up the major legs of the bull and bear markets. I follow this stuff for that reason, and because I want to have a handle on things, if that is even possible in this era of lies and deception, so that I can make decisions on life issues.

For example, as I posted in the commentary on the website and discussed with many people well in advance, this was something that wasn't hard to see coming. I saw many people who told me as late as Oct 2007 that 'this thing is about to 'break out' to the upside, and that Dow 20,000, and then much higher, was 'just around the corner' '. The type of articles I am posting discuss the type of information that helped me form the viewpoints I had back then.

If this is far from over, as I suspect, we are in a similar postion now as back then. With the rally that is unfolding right now the talk is the bull is back, the bottom is in, and we are set. I'm not so sure. So, I try to weigh up all the factors and not get too sucked in by the hype. To that end, I will post things here I find interesting.

Another viewpoint, not pulling any punches:

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20090406_resist_or_become_serfs/

This is really cool (and sickening). You have to zoom in and let it load, and drag it around a bit. Just unreal.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mjbommar/senators110.html

looks like a bunch of medianlines :)

Here's a couple of links, for those that think we are in a bull market, that all is well, and recovery is fairly well started:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/04/10/is-that-recovery-we-see.aspx

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/

On the second link read Atilla's post from 4/11/09 10:26 AM.

Now, I am not for one second saying any of this has me shorting here at new highs for the entire upmove. Any shorting I do will be technically based, when the time comes. And, of course, all of this is essentially irrelevant for daytrading. This I used for my swing trading, and pseudo-position trading, with options. I am using it to decide if I think there may be some more serious short side at some point, off the key areas that are coming up.

As much as I joke and am sarcastic/facetious about this new 'bull' and the recovery, it would make less than zero sense to me that we are anywhere near any kind of recovery. Like any trend there are checkbacks (bounces, if you want, in a downtrend), and that also applies to economic data (although I think all the 'bounces' in economic data so far are anomalies, not real bounces). I think we are still in a world of hurt, and to think China will have genuine GDP over 10% this year is ridiculous. But, until lots and lots of 'bad news' comes out this will likely keep going up. Sentiment has to shift for it to go down.

No matter what logic says is going on underneath, all that matters is are people buying or not. If they are buying, it's going up, end of story. Here's where the technicals come in. I never fight the trend that is unfolding before me. But longer-term, I see the potential for the downtrend to resume with vigor (understand, maybe it won't), so if I get technical signals, which would have to include actual downside movement, I will be looking for setups.

Although I think very strongly that this is nothing more than one of many bear market rallies, which I am of the opinion can go up as much as 50%-60% off the lows and still be a bear market, we are in unprecedented times of government manipulation, like has never been seen or done before, so I leave open the poosibility that all that could drag off the inevitable, and keep the sentiment positive, for years, hence it would be a 'bull market' by any definition. An engineered one, but still a bull. I guess my point is, I play the market technically, but I plan using fundamental factors like this, to filter what I chose to play technically.

Also keep an eye on the CMBX charts, as I posted in its own topic recently, as that goes along with what Maudlin was saying about commercial:

http://www.markit.com/information/products/category/indices/cmbx/history_graphs.html

Here's a good article that says all of what we already know, but it sums it up nicely for Joe Average. It is also very pleasantly surprising to see anyone mainstream willing to put it out there...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Well-need-more-bear-market/story.aspx?guid=%7BD9A93369%2D730F%2D4670%2DBD61%2DCCA853F57C8B%7D

At least some call it as it is:

http://www.finfacts.com/irishfinancenews/article_1016421.shtml

you know this may be the last straw of the sinking ship.

Another good article:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/04/13/thoughts-on-the-market-rebound.aspx

More interesting stuff from Maudlin:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/04/17/the-trend-may-not-be-your-friend.aspx

I forgot, I do have another hero to go with Ron Paul and David Stockman, and that's Nigel Farage. Here's his latest:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/farage-unleashed-you-are-common-criminals